Welcome to another U.S Open writeup as we discuss our favorite plays on the slate. We want to make note that the scoring is slightly different since women play 3 sets and men play 5 sets. Draftkings has tried to “nerf” the men’s scoring due to having more sets but we still like using them because women’s matches tend to be closer and have more double faults with less aces. The only women we are going to consider are ones that are going to flat out dominate the match, have high upside, or value plays. With that being said, let’s discuss our favorite plays in each tier. We’ll give you our favorite play in each range and you can use the projections to fill out the rest of your lineups. Good luck and we’ll be in discord available to answer any questions on any players you want to inquire about!
11k-10k Range
Daniil Medvedev – His opponent got away with a close win because Collignon made some brutal unforced errors. Gorzny won’t get that same luck here against Medvedev who we expect to cruise into the third round.
Jessica Pegula – She makes a living outgrinding opponents in rallies and rarely makes errors. Sofia Kenin got dominated in their last matchup and this is an even better version of Pegula she’ll be facing now.
Rafael Jodar – The hard court swing has been fantastic for Jodar and he gets the luxury of facing a last minute replacement. Jodar will have plenty of break opportunities considering he is an elite returner. He can also hold serve fairly well here against Bu who is simply outmatched.
Marta Kostyuk – This is one of the rare high upside plays as Kostyuk can rack up the aces which is a boost since they are worth more for women. We don’t expect Stephens to put up much of a fight and envision a smooth sailing win for Kostyuk.
Karolina Muchova – She is a defensive player which we like because she won’t lose many games. She has her matches where she can rack up the aces as well. Low double faults and errors solidify this play.
9k-8k Range
Mirra Andreeva – Eva Lys poses no threat and is outmatched everywhere. We expect Andreeva to put up a score similar to her first round matchup.
Alexander Bublik – The public faded Bublik because he hasn’t had a single hard court matchup and he made the faders look foolish. There were concerns not playing a single hard court match but he erased any concerns and looked fantastic. Adrian Mannerino is the perfect second round opponent because he will have no answer for Bublik and his powerful serve that racks up plenty of aces. Mannerino got extremely lucky when his previous opponent forgot how to serve, so we expect him to get dominated here as Bublik continues to gain momentum.
Ben Shelton – It’s not often we get a player with the upside caliber of Shelton at this price but here we are. Shelton left a lot to be desired so there’s room for him to put up a really good score here.
Matteo Berrettini – Berrettini brings his powerful serve into this matchup which gives him a massive advantage. Navone didn’t have to deal with that in the first round against Djokovic so this second round matchup is going to be a nightmare to deal with.
7k-6k Range
Ignacio Buse – We have a matchup of two players going in two different directions. Buse is coming off a title and Giron is coming off a qualifier loss. We believe Buse has a style that will give Giron fits.
Valentin Vacherot – He has held serve very well this season and can exploit his opponent who hasn’t done the same this year. We love Vacherot because his first serve placement helps him steal points and games. Lastly, he can control baseline tempo very well as his heavy topspin has depth to it.
Daniel Merida – Up and coming prospect who has enjoyed a really good hard court swing. Andrey Rublev didn’t look good against his injured last minute replacement opponent in the first round which is a red flag for us. Rublev has a tendency to be streaky and when he’s in a bad streak, he tends to not come back from it. We believe Merida has the style to finish the job that Otto Virtanen couldn’t.
Luca Van Assche – Getting to fade Shapovalov will always get us to sign up. In addition, Assche is coming with good form, looking good on the challenger circuit and grabbing a title on clay against Blockx recently. We believe Van Assche can extend rallies very well here and put Shapovalov in positions to make a lot of unforced errors.
James Duckworth – Everyone was worried of injury concerns with his leg and he cleared those concerns with an upset over Arnaldi. You can argue that this is a step down in competition going against Yibing Wu so he is live to win this match.
Alex Michelsen – He is simply too cheap for the talent he carries. It is a tough matchup but we are hoping fatigue starts to hit Nakashima who has been on an insane hard court run. Michelsen has the style to make things tricky here.
5k-4k
Lloyd Harris – Tsitsipas picked up his biggest victory this year against Arthur Fils. While the win was impressive, Tsitsipas is an auto-fade candidate because he is having his worst year ever. We need to see Tsitsipas do it again before we remove him from the auto-fade list. Harris has a strong serve that can make him live to win this matchup and has looked great when healthy.
Diane Parry – We backed Parry in her first round matchup and she looked fantastic. There’s no reason to not go back to the Parry well again here considering the good form she is in.
Dino Prizmic – viable punt option against Tommy Paul who can be pretty inconsistent especially if his first serve disappears on him.