This bet is -115 on BetMGM and we like it up to 69.5 yards. Jackson once again showed his monster ceiling on the ground last week, running for 100 yards and two scores. The broadcast talked about how Jackson has let the coaching staff know this year that he wants the ball in his hands as much as possible in the playoffs, and he will be calling his own number whenever he sees it necessary. We saw one week of that and it makes us think this rushing prop is set way too low for him. We’ve seen Lamar have a lot of success against man-heavy and blitz-heavy defenses, and Kansas City fits that to a tee. We also know Steve Spagnuolo likes to blitz Jackson, having blitzed him on 44% and 43% of his dropbacks in his past two matchups against the mobile QB. Jackson has three total games against Spagnuolo-led defenses, with 236 yards and three touchdowns on the ground on 33 carries. We’ve seen Kansas City struggle against mobile quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the ground. Add in the fact that we expect KC to struggle offensively, and we get a good matchup for Lamar where the Ravens should have the ball and dominate time of possession. Lock in this over.
