This bet is +113 on Tailgate and we like it to -135. We think this line is pretty far off with the market overvaluing the Twins here. Connor Prielipp has very underwhelming advanced metrics to both sides of the plate, but the market seems to think that he is a stud. Slade Cecconi is similarly mediocre, but the market seems to think he sucks. When we deep dive these matchups is where the separation really comes from. There’s really only one Twins hitter that looks good here and it’s Josh Bell. If Slade can navigate around him, he should have a very solid outing working his cutter in on these hitters that struggle against it. On the other side, we like more than half of the Guardians hitters in this matchup and think they deserve to be favored here. One more positive is that while most of the public is betting the twins we are seeing some sharp movement on the Guardians side, indicating other pros may be seeing what we’re seeing.
