Pitchers (DraftKings Only):
The Mets will send Kodai Senga to the mound tonight to take on the tough Braves lineup. It will be a fun matchup to watch as Senga has pitched very well this season, holding right-handed bats to a .150/.315 line and lefties to a .081/.286 while striking both out at a near 28% clip. Over the last month he’s done an even better job at limiting damage with xISOs under .080 allowed to both sides of the plate. Tonight will be a tough test against a Braves lineup that has hit right-handed pitching for a .225 ISO and .363 wOBA. If you want to look for a weakness to attack, there are five hitters in the Braves’ lineup that have K rates over 22% against right-handed pitchers. Senga should be chalk tonight and is likely to be the highest-owned captain on the slate. He’s an optimal play, but a GPP fade while loading up on Atlanta bats could be a good contrarian move. The Mets’ bullpen has been heavily taxed after a double header yesterday, but Adam Ottavino and Grant Hartwig are two arms that could see innings after Senga tonight.
Yonny Chrorinos will take the ball for the Braves tonight. He has struggled for Atlanta, allowing a .305/.403 line to left-handed hitters and a .202/.366 line to right-handed hitters over the last month as a starter. Another issue with Chorinos is that Atlanta has not given him much of a leash, with him not throwing over 90 pitches in any of his starts so far, but he could continue to get stretched out as he continues to transition to a starter. Chirinos projects to be low-owned on this slate and while he hasn’t been great for the Braves, the Mets lineup has five batters that strike out at a 23% clip. They also have four bats with a .200 or higher xISO against righties, so the floor is very low for Chirinos. Chirinos is more of a contrarian play as he probably isn’t worth his price tag. Some names to consider as value reliever arms from Atlanta are Brad Hand, Joe Jimenez, and Kirby Yates.
Hitters:
The Mets’ bats all project to be a bit higher-owned on both sites with their salaries being much more affordable for them. Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor all project well for us. All three have over a .200/.350 line against right-handed pitching this season and project well against Chirinos. All three are viable MVP/STAR options in GPPs on FanDuel with Alonso projecting to be the lowest-owned of the three on both sites. Rafael Ortega projects as the top pts/$ play on DraftKings and will be a higher-owned value piece, but deservedly so. On FanDuel, we prefer to go with Mark Vientos or Daniel Vogelbach as value pieces as they provide a bit more pts/$ upside there with them as the top two pts/$ plays based on our projections.
Ronald Acuna Jr is the only Braves bat that is projecting to see a ton of ownership. He will likely be the second highest-owned captain on DraftKings and the chalk MVP on FanDuel. He’s our top projected bat and is an optimal play tonight of course. Matt Olson has been scorching hot recently and projects to be really low-owned. He’s our second-highest projected bat on the slate and has a .328/.413 line against righties on the season while crushing cutters and fastballs for xISOs over .320. Olson is a nice GPP play tonight and is an option in the MVP/STAR or Captain slots in deep GPPs. Austin Riley is another low-owned option with high upside. Like Olson he’s crushed cutters and fastballs from righties and has a .231/.366 line overall against them on the season. He’s another deep GPP Captain option on DraftKings or MVP/Star on FanDuel. Marcell Ozuna projects to be the next highest-owned Braves bat behind Acuna but still won’t see a ton of ownership. He has xISOs over .370 against both fastballs and cutters and he’s a solid GPP flex play on both sites. He’s the top pts/$ Braves bat on FanDuel as well.
Conclusion: In cash games tonight, Kodai Senga and Ronald Acuna are the top options on DraftKings with Acuna being the optimal MVP on FanDuel as well. Ortega is a nice value play in cash games on DraftKings as well. Fading Senga and loading up on Atlanta bats is a nice GPP move. Our favorite GPP bats for tonight are Olson, Riley, and Alonso in the upper tier, and Vientos and Vogelbach in the lower tier.