Update: We’ve removed LeBron from the header as he showed up with his ankle wrapped and said he’s not going to play the whole game tonight.
CPT/MVP Plays: Antetokounmpo (Optimal), Gilgeous-Alexander (GPP), Booker (GPP), Curry (GPP)
Flex Plays: Haliburton, Tatum, Lillard, Mitchell (GPP), Maxey (GPP), Towns (GPP)
All Star Game Sunday is upon us and this is a slate we historically have crushed with you all. Tonight hopefully should be more of the same on the way! The NBA ASG is an interesting affair where defense is essentially non-existent so pinning down who cares enough to capitalize upon that lack of defense is what is the most important factor to crushing DFS contests.
The best way to attack this slate is to start in the stud tier of players and work your way down the pricing list. The clear optimal captain/MVP option on this slate is easily Giannis Antetokounmpo. As you will quickly realize as you start to build, salary really does not matter on this slate, although many people may not realize it if they try to jam in some of the more expensive studs that should simply be ignored. In his career, Giannis is averaging 25.1 points per game in the ASG, and that includes last year’s game when he left with an injury after 20 seconds. Over his last two healthy appearances, he is averaging 32.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game which shows his sheer upside in this spot. There really is no clear reason to fade him in the top spot here, but you could pivot your captain spot by taking a shot on some of the other guards who hold immense upside as well at much lower ownership.
Amongst the other studs, we think both Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic should be outright faded entirely. They have been complete scrubs in this game because they just do not care and there is zero reason to think that changes tonight. The issue for the Joker is that a ton of his normal value during the season flows through his peripherals which are nowhere near as prominent in this game. This is partly due to the lack of defense so there are less contested rebounds where size matters, and far more one on one offensive possessions which minimizes the number of assists. He has averaged just 6.2 points per game in the All Star Game in his career which neuters his upside in a game where points scored are the primary determinant of fantasy upside. The same can be said for Luka who has averaged just 7.0 points per game and has already said he is going on vacation for the remainder of the break once this game is over.
The final option of the top studs to call out is Tyrese Haliburton who we believe has solid upside as a flex play. Tyrese has the hometown narrative backing him in this spot. It’s clear he wants to put on a show for the hometown faithful as he hit the game winning shot in the Skills Challenge and had a great first round of the three point contest as well. The hometown players have had a history of seeing added run of late with Markkanen playing 25 minutes last year and Garland and Allen both playing 23 minutes despite coming off the bench in Cleveland the year prior. Haliburton scored 18 points in just 14 minutes of action last season and easily could crush in this spot if he receives enough minutes. There is some obvious injury concern with him, which may hold his ultimate upside in check, hence limiting him to more of a flex role only for us.
After we get through the upper echelon of studs based on pricing, we get to one of our favorite options on the entire slate tonight, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA’s name can easily be rearranged to ASG so it should not surprise anybody if he took this game over (this is sarcasm don’t worry). The reality for Shai is that the West’s starting lineup is absolutely littered with players that either don’t care (Doncic/Jokic), are old and have been in the ASG a million times, or have already won the MVP in this game (James/Durant). This is just SGA’s second all-star appearance and he should be poised to smash in this spot. On a slate where scoring usually dictates all, Shai is one of our favorite GPP captain options as he currently is averaging the second most points per game in the entire league this season and clearly has shown extreme scoring chops that rival anybody.
After SGA, we get into a core group of three options that we like as flex options. That group includes Jayson Tatum, LeBron James, and Damian Lillard. All three of them have shown extreme upside in past ASG formats but carry question marks that will limit them to being flex options in this spot. Tatum went absolutely bananas last season en route to the MVP of the game as he posted a 55 point effort in 35 minutes of action. However, that came after Giannis left the game 20 seconds, so we have to assume this will not happen again. Because he will be sharing the court with Giannis most of the time, that will limit his ultimate upside, but he can still have a big game. LeBron James is now 39 years old and is coming off a game where he played just 14 minutes last season. Having already won three MVP awards in this game, we easily could see him take it easier tonight. However, there is a ton of inconsistency here. The year before last, he went bonkers and played 36 minutes coming on the heels of two straight years where he played 19 and 13 minutes respectively. As a result, he is a GPP flex option here due to the playing time fluctuations. Lastly, we have Lillard. Dame is another option that went bonkers last season once Giannis left the court. He has crushed All Star Games routinely and put up 21 shot attempts last year. As a result, he should have a very solid floor in this spot to build off of in the flex spot.
Rounding out our favorite CPT/MVP options we look to two guards out of the West in Devin Booker and Steph Curry. Booker is making his 3rd All-Star appearance while Curry is making his 9th. As mentioned above, we feel like the West roster is filled with players that either don’t really care about the game or will look to take advantage of a rest opportunity, meaning we could see minutes and usage condensed on their side. Both these two players are lethal from beyond the arc and we have seen some games turn into a chuck fest from outside as players continue to fill it up from deep. Booker only shot 2-9 from 3 in his last ASG which is well below his typical average which is around 38%. Steph missed last year’s game but in 2022 he put up 27 three point attempts en route to a 71 DK/ 63 FD point night. This is an environment we have seen Curry enjoy as he loves putting on a show for the fans. If either of these two get it going early from deep, we could see the teams continue to feed them the ball to keep getting shots up and with 3 point shots count for an additional .5 pts it makes them extra appealing GPP options on DK if trying to build differently than just locking Giannis.
Finally there are three more Flex options that we are interested in this evening in Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Maxey and Karl-Anthony Towns. Mitchell, like Tatum, benefited greatly from Giannis only playing 20 seconds last year and went out and hung up 71 DK/ 67 FD points. He will be making his 4th ASG appearance and has increased his usage and output in each year that he has participated. While we expect Giannis to play more regular minutes this season, capping some of Mitchell’s ceiling upside from last year, we think he possesses similar qualities to players like Curry, Booker and Dame, where if the shots start falling early from deep, teammates will look to keep feeding him the ball, making Mitchell a nice GPP flex option. Maxey is making his first ASG appearance so we don’t have any historical data to speak to with regards to his involvement, however he is a young guy with his first chance to compete and we think he could make good use of his time on the floor by getting involved distributing and putting up shots. He currently sits in the top 15 in scoring, has established himself as a high usage player and is a cheap option that’s viable if choosing to load up with the most expensive players today. KAT is making his 4th appearance and while no previous results jump off the page, he has been vocal in the past about wanting the MVP and has been efficient in his time on the floor averaging 1.65 FPPM. The big question is the minutes as he has never played more than 18 in this game but as the West’s roster is littered with guys who are older and/or just don’t have much interest in participating there could be some additional minutes flowing to the bench guys. The other wrinkle to consider here is that his head coach is calling the shots. With that said, Towns’ playing time could end up going one of two ways, Finch either gives him some additional run or decides to limit his minutes to rest for the second half of the season (and because he seems to dislike KAT). While we aren’t sure you need to go down to this price range, if you are building multiple lines, he might be worth a share or two in case he does benefit from some additional run time.
The last spot we wanted to call out is with Anthony Edwards. Ant has claimed that he is only planning to shoot left handed the entire game and put this on display during the skills competition yesterday. Even if he gets some extended run with Finch coaching and/or with the West roster just being old, we don’t think he needs to be in your lineups if he’s gonna chuck lefty all game. That doesn’t sound like a guy taking the game very seriously.
Conclusion: Giannis is the top option on the slate and is the optimal CPT/MVP choice and should most likely be locked in there on FD. If you want to get different on DK with your CPT, you can consider guys like Gilgeous-Alexander, Booker and Curry where the 3 point bonus can add up in a hurry and, as mentioned, the West roster looks like a spot to target where the usage and production could be more condensed than the East roster. Remember that salary is not very important on this slate, which may lead to people making the mistake of rostering guys like Luka and Jokic who have shown little interest in trying in years past. Lastly, note that Edwards plans to only shoot left handed which makes for an easy fade. Good luck to everyone!