Optimal Plays: Scott, Smalley, List, D. Schmid
GPP Plays: Glover, Ghim, Knox, Pan, Yu, Moore, Bennett
As we move along on the fall swing, the tour now heads from Mexico to Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Last year Seamus Power won the championship by finishing -19, but he’ll be unable to repeat this year since he’s dealing with a hip injury. The course, which is only a little over 6,800 yards, is one of the shorter ones the golfers will see this year.
With the course being on the shorter side its important for the golfers this week to put themselves in good shape off the tee and be able to use their irons to get in scoring position. Looking at the golfers that fit the bill, the one that stands out the most is Lucas Glover. He comes into this week ranked 1st in the field in App, 1st in BS, 8th Fwys Gained, and 7th in SG: Par 4 over the last 24 rounds. Glover is one of our favorite GPP options at the upper end of pricing, and we love targeting him this week as your primary stud.
Two other 9k options that stand out to us are Alex Smalley and Luke List. List comes in fresh off of a win, and has really turned his short game around in a way that is similar to Glover when he went on that big run to end last season. List ranks top-10 in Driving Distance, Strokes Gained T2G, Proximity from 200+ yards, and Birdie or Better Gained. He also is top-20 in Strokes Gained Approach, Proximity with his wedges, and Strokes Gained ARG. He makes for a great target in this 9k range. Smalley is priced just below 9k, and similarly grades well as he is top-10 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach and T2G, along with Opportunities Gained and Proximity from 200+ yards. He also ranks top-30 in Good Drives and Birdie or Better Gained. We believe both of these options are great for a second man into your builds.
The optimal piece up top on this slate looks to be Adam Scott, who grades very well in our stats model and projections thanks to being top-5 amongst the field in Driving Distance, Birdie or Better Gained, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and Strokes Gained Putting. He is also top-15 in Opportunities Gained. Scott has been great OTT, which should set him up well on this course, as he has gained strokes in ten straight OTT events. His short game has continued to be stellar as well. We expect Scott to put it all together this week and contend, making him a great upside target given that he has four top-10 finishes in his last ten events. If you are starting a lineup with someone up top, we believe Scott is the optimal play. You can use him in all formats, and a double-stud build with Glover is a nice GPP move, while in cash you probably want to go more balanced.
A guy who stands out in the next range of pricing is Doug Ghim. Although he missed the cut last year he did finish 14th in 2020. He has also been great off the tee ranking 9th in fairways gained to go along with 4th in BS and 16th in Approach. He is projected to be only about 11% owned, making him a great play in all formats.
Speaking of value, we have Russell Knox who is priced at $7,300 this week and provides a ton of upside. He has played this tournament four times and made the cut each time, finishing 11th, 16th, 12th, and 46th. Over the last 24 rounds he also has been great with his irons, ranking 2nd in the field in approach along with 12th in BS. Over the fall swing he has made three of four cuts so far and we expect him to continue playing well this week, making him a nice value play.
Two other value pieces that stood out for our team are Ryan Moore and Mattias Schmid. Moore is one of the shorter guys OTT, but he makes up for it with the amount of fairways he hits. Moore is also an elite iron player, ranking top-5 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach and Opportunities Gained. Moore also ranks top-15 in Proximity from 75-100 yards and Strokes Gained T2G. He is a strong low owned value piece on this slate. The other option, that’s a bit higher priced, is Schmid. He ranks top-10 in Birdie or Better Gained, Proximity from 200+ yards, and Proximity from 75-100 yards. Scmid also comes in ranked top-20 in Good Drives, Driving Distance, and Opportunities Gained. We love him as a lower priced option to help fill out your builds.
A few other options that grade really well as PT/$ plays in our projections are: Novak, Bennett, Brandon Wu, and Smotherman. All these guys are viable as they project very well, but they didn’t quite make our list of top priorities like the featured players in the breakdown. They make for fine options to fill out the rest of your lineup.
Conclusion: The optimal spend up play is clearly Adam Scott this week, who excels in all the metrics we’re prioritizing. If you are okay choosing just one of the options like Ghim/Smalley/List, then Scott works great. If you want to use more than one though, we love a balanced approach where your lineup starts with Glover and uses multiple of these plays. Then you would skip the mid-range entirely and use value plays. Regardless, that mid to low 8k range does not appeal to us, and we would skip down from these chalkier plays to the likes of Schmid, Pan, Knox, Moore, etc. From there we would fill in the lineup with one or two of the highest PT/$ options and you’re good to go. Best of luck!