Update: Rising is officially out and you can proceed with Johnson as the top QB value
Optimal Plays
QBs: Leonard, Daniels, Reed, Johnson, Buchner (FD)
RBs: Allen, Jackson, Martinez
WRs: Corley, Thrash
At QB, we like running with Duke QB Riley Leonard as our top option. Leonard is extremely mobile, rushing for 13 TD last season. Duke has a huge implied total here, and Riley is just too cheap. There are two mobile QBs on our radar this Saturday, and both project to be fairly high-owned.
Jayden Daniels is another option teetering on the optimal line for us this weekend. He’s so good with his legs, and might have more upside than anyone on the slate — he ran for three TD in a game twice last season. If Mississippi State can hang with LSU early on, Daniels’ upside could be substantial on Saturday.
There’s a couple fantastic values for us at QB this Saturday. To start, we have Western Kentucky’s Austin Reed. The Hilltoppers have been known to air it out and with 88 dropbacks through two games, they don’t seem to be slowing down. Reed gets a perfect game script against Ohio State, as the Buckeyes bust open big plays which will get the ball right back into Western Kentucky’s hands. Reed’s DK price is criminal for the opportunity he’ll get here. Reed is one of our favorite options for optimal lineups on Saturday, especially if you need the value.
Nate Johnson is the other value QB on our radar. Johnson is a tougher egg to crack than Reed, as he is still technically the backup. Utah announced that if Cam Rising (questionable at this moment) is still out, Johnson is their guy. Johnson had carved out a role in the red zone, getting carries regardless of his passing stats. He has 2 rushing TD already this year, while throwing it decently well in limited chances. We’ll update in discord when we get the final word on Johnson, but he makes for a fantastic value should Rising be ruled out.
Lastly, we have to add Tyler Buchner for FanDuel, as he’s way underpriced on there as the new starting quarterback for Alabama. At 6.5k, you just want to plug him in most likely. He projects significantly better than other QB options and he probably won’t be crazy chalk since most people have never even heard of him.
If you want a more high-floor QB option with wheels, look no further than Jordan Travis. Travis can put up tons of fantasy points with his legs alone, making him a hot commodity for DFS. Travis is at 9.7k this Saturday, so a lot of people may avoid him and go with the abundance of value options. Travis’ role is very secure here. Last week we saw him play into the 3rd quarter up nearly 40. He is rock solid Saturday, and we will be considering him for our GPP lineups due to his floor/ceiling combo and low ownership.
Last GPP guy to note: Drew Allar. Allar has 529-4 through two games, with a rushing TD as well. He has a clear top two WR (KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Harriso Wallace III – more on them later), making this a fantastic GPP stack. We like Allar’s upside in GPPs when you stack him.
At running back, we like starting optimal lineups with some combination of these three RBs: Ja’Quinden Jackson, Braelon Allen or Damein Martinez. Ideally, you get two of these guys in your optimal lineups.
Starting with Jackson, he’s projected for the top ownership on this slate, and rightfully so. A bruising runner, Jackson will be Utah’s bellcow now with Micah Bernard out for the year. Utah has run for 2.6 and 2.7 TDs per game the last two seasons respectively, with their lead back taking the lion’s share. Jackson has tremendous upside in the feature role. He’s one of our favorite optimal options at RB this Saturday as he gets a cupcake matchup against Weber State.
Onto Wisconsin, Braelon Allen is expected to pace the RB position in ownership. Allen is a solid play with Wisconsin’s matchup and implied total, and even though Mellusi is taking some carries he still has a solid workload. Allen has seen 7 targets in each of their two games, while Mellusi has virtually no role in the air. Even with a second RB in the picture, Allen’s workload is pretty secure — evidenced by 14 touches in a game script that completely schemed out the Wisconsin ground game last week (although his stranglehold on the passing down role could have made that a positive). He’s got a solid role, an excellent team total, and loads of upside here — he had a 40% breakaway rate last season. You can probably tell by our underwhelmed tone though, that he’s more of a cash play. I’m not planning to eat this chalk in GPPs and I’m hoping Mellusi eats into his ground work enough to make him sub-optimal.
Moving on to Martinez, he’s got a great matchup this week, and he’s oozing with talent. Martinez has 5 runs of 15+ yards this season already, and 9 runs of 10+ yards…on 26 carries total. The only reason he stopped at 9 carries last week was due to Oregon State being involved in a huge blowout. San Diego State (Martinez’ opponent) got torched by UCLA on the turf last weekend as well, just to add fuel to this fire. We love Martinez on Saturday, anchoring our lineups at RB. He projects lower owned than the other optimal RBs despite being just as good of a play, so he’s my RB1 in GPPs.
Our favorite low owned GPP RB this Saturday is Trey Benson. Boston College allowed 268 rushing yards to Holy Cross last week, so Benson’s only restriction will be his workload. Benson was the clear lead back last week, getting all of his work done by the 13 minute mark in the third quarter. If he’s able to play a full game and get a larger workload, he could really smash.
Some other higher priced GPP options at RB for us this week are Audric Estime, and Jo’Quavius Marks. Estime has shown breakaway ability and a solid role for Notre Dame. His workload isn’t insane, but he is efficient — 8.2 yards per carry, at least one TD in each game — and the Irish run scheme is fantastic as they utilize zone and gap run sets extremely well. As for Marks, he’s acting as a full on bellcow here. He has 43 carries and 9 targets through two games. There isn’t a script that takes him out of the game. He’s got some upside here if he can find paydirt a couple times, and his floor is great.
For value, Damon Bankston is your guy. He’s at the minimum price, and is the lead RB for Weber State. He has 35 carries through two games for 267-5. A nice value here at the minimum, and decent upside as he’s holding a 50% offensive snap share thus far, and double the carries his backup has. He’s the best PT/$ play in our projections by far if you’re looking to save salary with an RB spot. He’s great in all formats.
On to the wide receiver spot now. At his price, it’s nearly impossible for us to pass on Malachi Corley. Corley is an NFL mold slot WR that gets peppered with targets. Last season Corley had 137(!) targets. He’s been banged up a bit early on, but this is a huge showcase game for him against OSU. He’s our top optimal WR option here.
The next WR on our optimal list — and likely the highest owned — is Jamari Thrash. Thrash has been nothing short of sensational for UL thus far, and has proven to be their clear top target. They manufacture him tons of touches, with carries mixed in. He and Corley make for an excellent WR duo in optimal lineups.
We also love the price point for Brock Bowers this weekend. Bowers is a certified stud. He has not had a huge role early in these blowouts, but has been on the field a ton. The opportunities will come, as they utilize him as a pass catcher and a runner at times. Bowers is one of our favorite options this Saturday. He’s more tailored to GPPs this week given the value we have everywhere else, but he’s underpriced for what we know he’s capable of.
Keon Coleman and Jalon Calhoun are a pair of WR projected to be among the top ownerships, but we feel they have a bit more risk and can be avoided. Coleman has been the man for FSU, but Johnny Wilson is back and seems to be looking more like himself at practice. The coaching staff credits Wilson with a few drops last weekend, and got banged up a bit. However, he still saw 5 targets to Coleman’s 6, and is listed as a starter again this weekend. Wilson had a 19.6 aDoT last weekend, and a 15.8 aDoT last season. It wouldn’t take more than 1-2 big catches from Wilson to really knock down Coleman’s outlook here in a game that could already be run-centric with rain and winds from Hurricane Lee impacting the contest. Calhoun got peppered for 10 targets week 1, and then 4 — expected in a blowout — in week 2. He has a solid role, but with an aDoT of 5.7 in week 1 and 2.3 in week 2, it takes a lot of connections or end zone trips for him to hit value at his price. With Duke expected to win by nearly 3 TDs, it’s hard to see Calhoun getting enough work to make it happen here given his route tree. Both these guys are chalk fades for us.
Now onto the higher priced options. Marvin Harrison Jr. had 12 targets last game in a blowout, and went wild. He’s capable of breaking any slate, even at his price. He had an aDoT of 17.9 last week. He’s absolutely worth a look in all formats with all the value we have to make him fit. The knock is his price, but he’s got the ability to be the top scoring WR on this slate by a wide margin. Staying on Ohio State, Emeka Egbuka has a nice role as well, and had 8 targets last week. Egbuka can get his even with Harrison feasting. He’s likely the higher owned of the two though, as he is nearly 1.5k cheaper. Egbuka saw his role a bit more defined, and he will certainly be schemed targets aplenty this season with his ability to make people miss. Before we leave here though, let’s discuss Julian Fleming, the third OSU WR. We know this offense can support three, because it does so annually. Fleming actually has more targets than Egbuka thus far, and an 11.3 aDoT this season. Playing devil’s advocate to my own take, Fleming does have the least snaps played of the trio (53 pass snaps, compared to 61 for MHJ and 66 for Egbuka). Still,13 targets through two games, and Kyle McCord winning the job is huge for Fleming — McCord has targeted Fleming 10 times on his 53 attempts, an 18% share. For reference MHJ has 16 from McCord, and Egbuka has 9. Fleming carries some risk, but he isn’t nearly as far below MHJ-Egbuka as it seems. In short, all 3 OSU WR are excellent options Saturday in any format. The only downside is that you usually just have to pick one and hope for the best.
We have a couple more WR we like for GPPs that fit the stacking route. Malik Nabers demands a target share up near 30% from Jayden Daniels, and makes for a nice GPP option. Looking at Penn State, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Harrison Wallace III are the clear WR 1-2 — both over 20% target share — here. You can stack either one with Allar for a lower owned upside play in GPP, or go crazy and jam them both with Allar.
Looking at the Fanduel slate specifically, QB is a bit more cloudy after Buchner. The other top QBs to consider for Saturday are Jaxson Dart, Donovan Smith, and Michael Penix. Dart has been incredible both passing and running thus far, and he’s a great option and projected to be one of the higher owned QB on the slate. Donovan Smith gets a matchup against a TCU team that has been fried through the air. Smith also leads the Cougars with 20 carries this year, making him a fantastic dual threat option. As for Penix, he’s a bonafide stud through the air. 78 attempts in two games, 853-8 through the air. We’ll list his stacking options down in the WR section.
Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis are two of the bigger hitters again with their mobility. Daniels is projected to be significantly higher owned than Travis on Fanduel, making Travis a bit of a leverage play.
At running back, Quinshon Judkins is our top dog. He’s got a fantastic matchup against GT, and Ole Miss has shown that he is their entire backfield. Judkins has 31 carries in two games, with the next closest RB at 8. Deploy this bellcow with confidence.
Following Judkins, we like Marks, Devin Mockobee, and Nicholas Singleton as options for RB2. Marks we touched on above, and while the receiving isn’t as impactful here, the huge workload still plays. Mockobee is the lead back here by a wide margin. He has 37 carries compared 1o 11 for RB2. He’s a rock solid option here as he should be in for an excellent workload as Purdue battles out Syraucse in a game with a 2.5 point spread. Singleton is one that’s in a bit of a timeshare, but it seems he has won the goal line role. Singleton has 4 TD on the season, all coming inside the 10 yardline — 5, 5, 4, 2 yards. He also has HUGE breakaway ability evidenced by his multiple 50+ yard TD in 2022. Singleton is a bit more GPP than Marks, or Mockobee here, but we love his upside this Saturday.
I’d be remiss if I left out the fact that Trey Benson is one of our favorite RBs for GPPs on Saturday. However, at the price here we can’t be on him as much as on Draftkings. A pivot to someone like Singleton, or even TCU RB Emani Bailey could be a better use of the salary. We just felt like we should mention Benson here if you want to live on the wild side as he will probably be under 5% owned. I (Justin) am considering using him to be unique.
Squirrel White is the talk of the town at WR on FanDuel. He’s only 5.7k on this slate, and leads Tennessee with 15 targets through two games. We love him here as our top WR on FD.
The Washington stack of Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan comes in next for us. They can be used individually, or stacked with Penix. Using one of them is optimal while stacking both with Penix is more GPP.
Kobe Paysour and Deion Burks check in next for us. Paysour has a secure role in the UNC offense, and will likely be the top target for them again this Saturday. He has a very sturdy floor, but until UNC starts airing it out more we’d hesitate to use him in GPPs. Burks is quite the opposite, as he can bust the slate wide open with his 18.6 aDoT. Use Burks as an anchor in your GPPs this Saturday.
Conclusion:
This is a big slate with multiple directions you can go at quarterback for your optimal. Our preferred method is starting with Riley Leonard, and flanking him with one of Austin Reed, Jayden Daniels, or Nate Johnson. At running back, we like to get at least 2 of the optimal trio: Ja’Quinden Jackson, Braelon Allen or Damein Martinez. Worth noting that taking the value option, Reed, as your second QB will likely dictate how you round out RB. If you use Reed, you’ll be able to afford all 3 of the optimal RBs, and our favorite optimal WRs, Malachi Corley and Jamari Thrash. You may find yourself stuck in an awkward spot for the last couple positions, and while you could eat chalk with someone like Coleman, we prefer to take the route of going with someone like Fleming or taking a huge usage value like Bankston. Then you could afford to slot someone like Marvin Harrison Jr. into your optimal lineup which gives you tons of upside.
On Fanduel, we like starting with Michael Penix, Quinshon Judkins and Squirrel White and working from there. Stacks can be huge on Fanduel, so be sure to check out the projections and find out some solid pairings for your QBs — unless you choose the mobile ones, in which case you know you can just let them roll.
P.S. I want to note that we had a very long Jalen Milroe fade written up for us, and I’m devastated we don’t get to reap the rewards of it now with Bama going public about the starters.
Check in the Discord, as we’ll be laying in thoughts and notes throughout the day as we get intel on teams depth chart and plans for this weekend!