Stacks: TCU, UW, ORE, TEN
Optimal: Morris, Brooks, Penix Jr., McCoy, Irving
The first Saturday slate of the year is finally here! Football season AND the very first Saturday slate for RGP. We are absolutely stoked for this opportunity to continue bringing you top notch college football content, now supplemented with our projections!
This slate seems to be pretty cut and dry from an ownership and projection perspective. At quarterback you have Bo Nix who projects as the top QB on the slate by a few points. His price is downright egregious and you really need a ceiling game from him to get it done. That being said, he is unlikely to garner as much ownership on a slate with 14 games, so in tournaments he could make for a nice pivot if you have the salary to get him. Immediately following Nix in the projected points column brings two very chalky QBs that you should likely start every optimal build with. Chandler Morris and Michael Penix Jr. Penix Jr. comes into this spot as a 14 point favorite and looks to be the leader of one of the best offenses in the country. Penix is a pocket passer that totaled 4500 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago. He is priced below where he likely should be in what is projected to be one of the closer games on the slate. He is going to be very highly owned and should be an easy start to all optimal lineups. Chandler Morris is stepping in for the fan favorite Max Duggan in TCU. Regardless of Deion Sanders being in Colorado, the fact remains that the Buffaloes allowed 44 points per game last season, and TCU just went to the National Championship. We do have some high hopes for this Colorado squad, but not necessarily in this spot. Morris has been in this system for a few years now and will look to be the same fantasy relevant quarterback that Duggan was for years. Morris projects for 26 points, almost identical to Penix Jr. and Morris is priced at $6,900 on this slate. If making a decision between the two, you almost have to go Morris in this spot. However, as noted above the answer is very likely both. Outside of these three quarterbacks, the quality falls off fairly quickly. The need for “tune up games” as these have been christened are definitely good for teams, but it also means that there will be a lot of starters that don’t play more than three quarters of the game.
With Bru McCoy the most clear optimal wide receiver on the slate, you may want to stack him with Joe Milton. Milton is likely the quarterback with the strongest arm in the college game. He has an absolute cannon and we expect him to be a popular stack with Bru McCoy and Squirrel White. We prefer Morris and Penix though if you want to use one of the optimal QBs on this slate, and just use McCoy as a one-off.
If you really have an itch for a true GPP QB, we’ve got two great options for you. The first is Carter Peevy. He is the Mercer Bears QB starting against Ole Miss. They do not have a prayer at being competitive in this game, but he is the stone minimum at $4,500. Peevy could toss a couple scores in garbage time or punch one in on the ground. Do not expect earth shattering scores here and it very well could be a dud, but at the minimum salary, in large field tournaments he could be a fun dart. The second option is much more plausible. Quinn Ewers has held off Archie Manning and will retain the keys to the Texas Longhorns offense. In the wake of Bijan Robinson leaving Austin, what does this Texas offense look like? We have a sneaking suspicion that Texas leans on their most talented playmakers and opens up the playbook a good bit. Enter stage left, Quinn Ewers and eventual superstar, Xavier Worthy. If Texas doesn’t force feed their running backs in this matchup, Ewers is in line for a big day at minimal ownership. Again, this is a tournament play only, but with Texas’ running backs projecting to be chalk here, we could zig when the field zags.
At running back, there is a handful of different ways to go. The top end of the running back pool as always is anchored by Braelon Allen and Blake Corum. Both running backs project for right at 20 points. Ownership is quite a bit different between the two, with Allen being the frontrunner. Braelon Allen is now a part of what has been described as an air raid offense in Wisconsin. That seems like an oxymoron when you stop and think about the teams Wisconsin has previously had. Allen averaged 21 touches over 11 healthy games last season and saw over 1200 yards. His salary is much lower than we would have expected, which in large is the reason for his spike in projected ownership. With the swing in the offensive game plan, it may make sense to pivot to the tried and true, former Heisman candidate, Blake Corum. Corum projects for less ownership and is only $200 more expensive than Allen. Pre-injury, Corum saw 247 carries amassing 1463 yards. Corum is generally an $8,500 level running back and if we weren’t concerned about a blowout, this would be an all-in spot. It could be an all-in spot anyway, and is a place we are planting a flag this weekend. Lock in Corum in every lineup.
Alongside Braelon Allen, the biggest chalk at RB this week will be Jonathon Brooks and Bucky Irving are projected to see the highest ownership on the slate. Neither break the bank in terms of salary and both find themselves in excellent spots. It is likely that the chalk build has all three of these running backs. As a general rule of thumb, if there is a QB that is a known vulture at the goal line, and his running back projects as chalk, it just may be a good place to fade. We are of course referring to Bo Nix and Buck Irving. Last season, Bo found the end zone with his legs 14 times. He is priced at $10,100 and that is the exact reason for it. We find it just as likely that Bucky picks up 70 yards on the ground and never finds the end zone while Nix accounts for four scores, two of them being rushing touchdowns. It just is not a great feel for a 14 game slate. Brooks on the other hand, “should” step into what will be the Bijan Robinson role. We would consider that good chalk every day of the week and would recommend starting optimal lineups there at the running back position. Corum and Brooks are our flag plants at RB for the first Saturday Main Slate of the year.
A couple other options worth mentioning are Emani Bailey, Trey Sanders, Quinshon Judkins and Kaleb Johnson. We think that it would be disrespectful to not include the TCU run game in this spot. As mentioned above, the Buffaloes allowed 44 points per game last season. Bailey is the defacto alpha in the backfield, and should be your first choice. We expect to see the Kendre Miller role for Bailey this season. This game has a huge total as well, and how many times last season did we see multiple TCU backs score in the same game? Insert Trey Sanders. Sanders is priced at a disrespectful $3,900. He is a quality running back that we do not mind taking shots on, especially if you think this game gets out of hand early like the rest of the world does. Judkins projects for 19 points and is now in an offense without Zach Evans to hold him back. This is an excellent GPP play due to the upside we know he has, correlated with the deflated ownership and sub $7,000 price tag. Ole Miss loves to feed him and we fully expect a statement game from the second year back to open the season. Last but not least, Kaleb Johnson slots in as another quality play from Iowa. He projects to be the number one back in this offense and although last season was a bit of a dud for him, we like the opportunity here in what should be an easy matchup for an Iowa squad that loves to run the football.
Wide Receiver brings us no surprises for the weekend. Per usual, the Ohio State boys project the best. Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka lead the way with 22 and 20 points. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best receiver in the college game, but it is actually Egbuka that projects for more ownership. This is because his price is nearly $2,000 less than MHJ. This should be an easy game for Ohio State, but it is important to note that Coach Ryan Day made the statement that we could see multiple quarterbacks in this game. Might that affect the receivers’ production in a game that really doesn’t matter? Or even their playing time? It’s certainly possible. We wouldn’t recommend loading up on MHJ in this spot, but in optimal lineups we certainly wouldn’t fault you for using the chalky Egbuka. Following those two, Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan slot in as the two next highest projected receivers. As noted in the quarterback paragraph, Washington could have one of the best offenses in the nation, which is right in line with our projections. Odunze is believed to be the alpha here and both his projected points and ownership match that thought. In tournaments, it is a great idea to take McMillian on his own or stack them both together for the full Washington passing attack rounded out with Penix Jr.
Whatever you do, be sure to include Tennessee’s Bru McCoy in your lineups. He projects to be in nearly half the field’s lineups and I can guarantee he will be in almost every cash game lineup you see. He projects to slot into the WR1 spot in the wake of Hyatt and Tillman leaving the program for the NFL. You combine that with Joe Milton, who is an absolute gunslinger at quarterback, and the fact that McCoy is sub 5k on this slate gives you the first chalk monster of the season. A few more receivers that should be mentioned: Squirrel White, partly because he has a cool name, and also because is an exceptional pivot off the mega chalk that is McCoy in large field tournaments. We love McCoy but if you want to be super unique you could fade him and play White. Another receiver that should be noted is Ryan O’Keefe. O’Keefe was an absolute dog during his time at UCF. He is stepping into the Zay Flowers role at Boston College and although we aren’t sure he is the receiver that Zay is, we are excited to see O’Keefe in an expanded role. He projects for a solid score and only looks to be around the 20% owned mark.
Conclusion: This is a big slate with a lot of different ways to go. We want to be very clear when outlining optimal targets. You will need Chandler Morris, Michael Penix Jr, Bru McCoy and Jonathon Brooks in every optimal lineup you build. We also really like taking Blake Corum as your RB2. We would not recommend playing Bo Nix and Buck Irving in the same lineup. If you use Penix and want to stack him, then you will likely end up wanting Rome Odunze or McMillan from the Washington offense, with McMillan being the lower owned option and Odunze being the cash play.