| Team | Implied Total | TT Rank DK | Game Total |
| TAMU | 25.5 | 16 | 48.5 |
| MIZZ | 23 | 20 | 48.5 |
| UVA | 27.25 | 14 | 53 |
| BC | 25.75 | 15 | 53 |
| UL | 31.25 | 8 | 56 |
| SMU | 24.75 | 17 | 56 |
| PITT | 33.5 | 5 | 64 |
| UNC | 30.5 | 10 | 64 |
| NCST | 30 | 11 | 54.5 |
| WAKE | 24.5 | 18 | 54.5 |
| WISC | 29.75 | 12 | 45.5 |
| PUR | 15.75 | 25 | 45.5 |
| PSU | 37.25 | 3 | 46.5 |
| UCLA | 9.25 | 28 | 46.5 |
| UGA | 38.25 | 2 | 52.5 |
| AUB | 14.25 | 26 | 52.5 |
| MISS | 31.5 | 7 | 53.5 |
| SCAR | 22 | 21 | 53.5 |
| VT | 28.75 | 13 | 49.5 |
| STAN | 20.75 | 22 | 49.5 |
| OSU | 32.5 | 6 | 45 |
| IOWA | 12.5 | 27 | 45 |
| OKST | 34.5 | 4 | 65.5 |
| WVU | 31 | 9 | 65.5 |
| NEB | 24 | 19 | 41 |
| RUT | 17 | 23 | 41 |
| BAMA | 39 | 1 | 55.5 |
| VAND | 16.5 | 24 | 55.5 |
DK Top Plays
QBs: Greene, Bailey, Milroe, Reed (If Weigman out), Shough, Holstein, Sellers, Bowman, Drones
RBs: Hampton, Walker, Brown, Tuten, Ford, Gordon, Noel. Donaldson, White, Reid, Hammond
WRs: Lacy, Thomas, Presley, Concepcion, Harris, Bond, Pauling, Bernard, Klare
FD Top Plays
QBs: Greene, Criswell, Jefferson, Milroe, Shough, Sellers, Bowman
RBs: Hampton, Etienne, Gordon, I. Brown, Harvey, Noel, J. White, Hammond (Punt),
WRs: Lacy, Lovett, Clement, Presley, Harris, Owens, Bernard, Armstrong, N. Thomas
We have an insane slate this weekend at the QB position, where some of our top PT/$ is showing up with SUPER value. We’re going to start by going through both of these guys.
CJ Bailey checks in atop the PT/$ spot for QBs. Bailey has 14 carries across his two starts, while tossing 1 TD in each game. He gets a juicy matchup with Wake Forest here. The Wolfpack are implied to score 4+ TDs here, and we believe Bailey is a fantastic value option here in all formats.
LaNorris Sellers also pops up near the top of value this weekend. He is the GPP pivot off of Bailey for us here given that he has a tough matchup, and is projected far less ownership. The upside with Sellers is clear: big rushing upside, super athletic. He gets an angry Ole Miss team here, and coming back from injury this could be a tough spot for him. He makes for excellent GPP leverage off of Bailey in large field GPPs.
Marcel Reed is a great play again if he gets the start. He grades out well projections wise, due in large part to a price that is far too low and his mobility. He’s a GPP option for us, as he has a tougher matchup against Missouri. Most people will go with Bailey, and a higher priced QB. This will allow us to grab Reed as a leverage piece here as a pivot off of Bailey, or a GPP pairing with Bailey at Sflex.
Jalen Milroe is projected to carry some ownership, along with the highest projected point total among QBs. Milroe leads to Tide in carries by 16(!), and has 2 rushing TD in every game this season. His ceiling is clear, and he gets a cupcake matchup in this one. Milroe could honestly put up 35+ in the first half, but it’s unclear how much he’ll play after that if they get the lead that is expected. We view Milroe as an optimal option here, especially with the amount of cheap QBs we have to balance it out. He can be stacked with Germie Bernard, or Ryan williams. His clear top targets. Adding either of them makes the lineup lean more toward the GPP side.
Eli Holstein is a pivot option off of Milroe. He is 9k, which not many will pay for. However, he projects well in both points and PT/$. Holstein gets an easy matchup against UNC. UNC has allowed an average of 27 FPPG to QBs, but that includes a major outlier to JMU (and we did not include NC Central in this number). However, Charlotte QBs tossed for 300+ and 2 TD, and Duke just is not a good passing team. Holstein will go underowned here, with a ton of upside. He is a leverage option in GPPs, not an optimal option. His ceiling is among the highest on the slate, as this game could turn into a shootout . The Tar Heels have just 1 interception this season (NC Central) and Holstein would be able to really get some points if this game turns into a track meet. Pitt is second in CFB in tempo (20 seconds) while UNC is 24th (25 seconds) so the potential is here for us.
Tyler Shough is one of the top PT/$ options this weekend. He is WAY too cheap, given the matchup and his performance thus far. He has averaged 280-2.75 thus far passing, which ias basically 22 FPPG passing. If he pushes up to 300-3, he’s sitting at 25 at just 7k. Shough can be used in any format for us. We like pairing with one of the value signal callers to get leverage by paying premium at the other positions where others might not.
Kyron Drones has low ownership projections here, but huge upside. Drones is 53-310-2 rushing this season. He hasn’t had a crazy rushing game yet, but oozes potential. Given that he will be overshadowed by other QBs this weekend, we like the outlook of Drones in GPPs given VT’s 4-TD implied total.
Garrett Greene got some swagger back last weekend with a 15-91-1 rushing game. He’s just flirting with a HUGE performance, and he has the matchup for it here. Greene is projected to be a popular QB option this weekend, and for good reason. OKST has struggled handling opposing signal callers, especially mobile ones. Hudson Clement was the clear top option for Greene last weekend, seeing 5 targets with the next closest Mountaineer at 5, giving us a clear stack option. Greene is an optimal option alone, and moves to a bit more GPP with Clement stacked. You can also game stack here, as WVU is in the bottom 5 in PFF’s coverage grade. This boosts Alan Bowman. Bowman has 3 clear stacks, Slot WR have been very successful, so Brennan Presley is here, as always. RWR have also flashed huge upside against WVU, which is where Rashod Owens has been playing. Owens had a team-leading 11 targets last game, and could be in for a blowup spot here. Lastly, De’Zhaun Stribling. He’s has huge potential, and will likely be pretty low owned given his price below the upper end – Presley and the value of Owens.
RB
Omarion Hampton projects as the top PT/$ RB, and has a bit of ownership steam as well. Hampton has run 114 times this season in just 5 games. He actually sat out most of the Charlotte game, so he’s essentially averaging 26 carries per game in his 4 full games. Hes the safest volume you can get, can be used in any format.
Tawee Walker is the top projecting value at the RB position. Wisconsin’s lead back, Chez Mellusi, left the team this week. This paves the way for Walker to handle a big workload Saturday. Walker is expected to step directly into Mellusi’s role, which has been good for 10-15 carries, and a handful of targets. Walker can be deployed in optimal lineups.
Isaac Brown got the start last game for Louisville, toting it 13 times for 72 yards. He added 5 targets, catching 4 for 23 yards. Brown ranks near the top in PT/$, due in large part to his 4.3k price. We believe Brown is a great value this weekend, but prefer Walker if you have the salary.
Bhayshul Tuten projects to be among the highest owned RBs this weekend. We need to watch this, because with Hampton at the higher end and all the value, the steam is leading us to believe he will end up being a leverage option. We will monitor the ownership as the weekend nears.Tuten has 15+ carries in every game, and his targets are increasing. Last game it peaked with a 19 carry, 5 target outing. Tuten is an excellent play this weekend, whether he is cash or GPP though, will depend on how ownership shakes out.
Micah Ford has a great PT/$ projection this weekend. He’s the starting RB for Stanford, and has seen an awesome workload of late. Last game he had 15 carries and 2 targets. At 41.k, it is surprising that Ford isn’t projected to have much ownership. We like his upside in GPPs given the solid opportunity he’s been getting.
Ollie Gordon is a prime leverage candidate off of Hampton this weekend. He projects 4 points under Hampton, so a lot of people will likely avoid Gordon with Hampton being $700 cheaper. However, Gordon is projected WAY less ownership, and Gordon can score multiple times any game. This is a GPP spot for us here, and a risky leverage play off of Hampton. You could also double-up on value QBs, and use both Gordon and Hampton in GPPs.
Desmond Reid profiled as an electric GPP option until Rodney Hammond got cleared to play. This is an interesting situation now. One one hand, you probably can get Reid at insane leverage in GPPs, against a bad UNC defense. On the other, Hammond may step in and make this a very murky backfield.
Nate Noel has been a horse lately. He projects well this weekend, and is priced fairly given his production. Noel has 66 carries this season, and 13 targets. He has 22 carries in each of his past two games, and he’ll likely be in store for a similar role here in a competitive matchup for the Tigers. Noel can be deployed in GPPs this weekend.
CJ Donaldson/Jaheim White make up the backfield duo for WVU. White is technically the starter each game, but Donaldson has taken more carries. White has taken more targets, but neither gets too many in this department. Oklahoma State is allowing 220 yards per game on the ground, pushing up these WVU runners into GPP territory for us, even though they split carries. We prefer Donaldon’s TD upside, and Donaldson actually has the longest run of the two of them this season. You can use either in GPPs, at likely minimal ownership, but Donaldson would be our pick between the two of them. In all seriousness, both probably end up between 10-20 FP (Donaldson has 4 TD on the season to White’s 3), but we believe Donaldson is more likely to score twice, and that sways us — especially with them at a similar price point here.
WR
Caullin Lacy is the top PT/$ option at WR. He stepped into his first game last weekend and saw 9(!!!!) targets. He is just wayy too cheap here, and offers big upside. Lacy can be used as a stack with Shough, or solo. He is an optimal option.
Noah Thomas has emerged as the top target for Texas A&M. He has 8 and 10 targets in the past two games, Last game, he caught 6 for 109. Thomas is a solid value, and can also be used in all formats.
Brennan Presley was mentioned a bit up above. He is a target hog for OKST, and gets another matchup to thrive here. Presley projects as an excellent PT/$ play at his price. He has 7+ targets in every game, with 13 last weekend. He can be played in all formats this Saturday.
Kevin Concepcion is projected to carry some ownership this weekend as a mid-tier WR option. He has a great matchup with Wake Forest, and has been fed by Bailey since he got under center. He has 17 targets across the past 2 weeks. However, we view him as GPP because his targets were not too exciting. He had 4 catches for 5 yards last weekend, which isn’t the most ideal situation. Still, he’s excellent after the catch and Wake isn’t the best tackling team. Concepcion can be deployed as a GPP option this weekend.
Tre Harris has been nearly automatic. 10+ catches in each of his past three games, and he’s gone 176+ yards in each of his past 2. Harris can be stacked with Dart, or used solo. He is not quite an optimal option for us at this price, but he is a great play on Saturday.
Lewis Bond has emerged as a high target option for BC. He has 10 and 8 in his past two games. Bond has a ton of upside this weekend with QB Thomas Castellanos returning from injury. We like Bond as a pivot in GPPs off some of the popular value, and he can be used as a large field GPP stack with Castellanos.
Will Pauling is a fairly steady value for us. He gardes out as a solid PT/$ play again this week, though doesn’t have the ownership to go with it. We view Pauling as an excellent GPP play with Wisconsin proving he is the clear top option with a 31% target share.
Germie Bernard is actually the top target for Bama this season. Crazy right? He has 20 targets to Williams 19, and is priced well below him. Bernard has some upside here given his consistent target count each week of 4-8 looks. He had an impressive aDoT up near 15 weeks 1-3, so this could be a nice GPP stack with Milroe in some larger fields.
Conclusion: This slate has some options, but the value at QB and WR makes it easy to pay up for some studs. We like starting off the QB positon with CJ Bailey, and then pairing him with Garrett Greene in optimal lineups. Bailey is just a smash PT/$, while Greene is in a great spot, and grades out well across the board in projections. At RB Omarion Hampton, takes our top spot. His workload is just insanity, hard to fade in optimal/cash lineups. We like to pair him with Tawee Walker in optimal. Walker should be in for a healthy workload at just 5.1k, and is the top PT/$ option. The WR position is led by Caullin Lacy. His huge target count at just 3.4k makes him a clear top option. Other WRs to consider in optimal for us are Tre Harris, Brennan Presley, and Noah Thomas. This slate has a lot of potential lineups since we have value at QB and WR. A lot of people will likely use 1 value WR (Lacy) with 1 value QB (Bailey). An easy way to get different in GPP would be using 2 high-priced QB, or two-value QB, and then just countering it with doubling up either high, or value at WR. example – QB: Milroe-Greene | WR: Lacy, Thomas, Owens.
For FanDuel
QBs are similar, but we have a couple options to consider.
Jacolby Criswell, and KJ Jefferson, pop up pretty high in the PT/$ category. Criswell is also on DK, but with the lack of CJ Bailey on FanDuel, Criswell becomes a solid value in a nice game script. Jefferson is priced right in that middle tier on Saturday, which makes construction easier than going with one of the top dogs, and he;s still projected to be QB6 in scoring despite being priced as QB10.
Trevor Ettiene pops up at RB at a reasonable 7.5k price tag. He is one of the top PT/$ options. RJ Harvey is priced high, but still has the upside to pay it off given his workload. The presence of Hampton, Gordon, Harvey makes it easy to be GPP here since it looks like Hampton and Gordon are cornering the ownership market, Harvey could be a nice leverage piece in tournaments.
Jaheim White is preferred to Donaldson here for 1.7k cheaper. Yes, we still like Donaldson’s scoring potential, but White has a solid role and 6.2k is just absurd. Projections don’t love WVU RBs, but OKST has a leaky rush defense.
WRs Are very similar, except we have a few notable value options to hit on. Caullin Lacy stays our top option here. Too cheap, too big of a role. PT/$ darling. Dominic Lovett checks in here at 5.7k. He leads UGA with 30 targets, and had double-digits last game. He’s a great value at his price. Andrew Armstrong continues to get fed. That’s 47 targets now in just 4 games. He has 10+ in every game. He has to score eventually, right? We love his upside this weekend.