CFB | Slate Breakdown 11/8

DraftKings Top Plays

QBs: Kaliakmanis, Mensah, Fox, Stockton, Pavia, Reed, Sayin, Lewis (GPP)

RBs: Hubbard, De. Williams, Sheppard, J. Williams, Raymond, B. Jackson, Hansen, Hemby, Castle (GPP), Edwards (GPP) 

WRs: Bell, Q. Brown, Z. Branch, C. Tate, Barkate, McAlister, J. Smith, Duff, Strong, Evans III, O. Miller, Sowell

FanDuel Top Plays

QBs: Pavia, Stockton, Simpson, Morris, Hoover, Klubnik, Sayin, Morton, Reed, Castellanos, Daniels

RBs:  Lyle, J. Taylor, Ch. Brown, B. Jackson, Baugh, Hansen, Dickey/J.Williams, Claiborne, Hardy, Cobb, Randall, Barnes

WRs: Toney, Williams, Branch, D. Robinson, J. Smith, A. Evans, McAlister, Cooper, Stowers, Henderson, Coleman

Stacks:

Both

UGA (GPP): Stockton – Branch

TTU: Morton – Douglas – Eakin/Virgil/Carter

Indy: Mendoza – Cooper – Williams – Becker

OSU: Sayin – Smith – Tate

TAMU: Reed – Concepcion – Craver

Ari (GPP): Fifita – Hutson – Whatley/Spivey 

TCU: Hoover – McAlister – Dwyer

Vandy: Pavia – Stowers – Sherill

DK

Rut (GPP): Kaliakmanis – Duff – Sheffield/Strong

Mary (GPP): Washington – Williams – Knotts – Smith/Farooq

Duke: Mensah – Barkate – Brown

Uconn: Fagnano – Bell

FD:

UVA (GPP): Morris – Ross – Edrine-Harris

Clem: Klubnik – Williams/Randall – Moore

Bama: Simpson – Williams/Bernard – Horton/Cuevas

QB

Diego Pavia gets so many designed runs, and then he also is one of the best scramblers in CFB. Last game he had 10 designed, and 6 scrambles. Vandy is in a tough spot, so people may avoid him, but we believe Pavia is a rock solid option yet again and a pivot off Mensah at price in GPPs. 

Darian Mensah is in the smash spot. He has insane upside, and is a great play. The Blue Devils may find more room to run here, so Mensah’s upside might be capped. He is one of the safest QB plays on the slate, and could anchor any lineup with the value we have for QB2. 

Scotty Fox will be high owned on this slate. He has been solid since starting, and last game broke out. He ran for 59-2, while passing for 157-1. Colorado has been so bad, this is a perfect spot for him to produce. Fox is an excellent option here. Julian Lewis is an interesting run back if you think this game could pace up. Lewis is stackable, and hasn’t shown much with his legs which sucks, but he’s so cheap that you can build a huge lineup around him. 

Athan Kaliakmanis is trending toward being the chalkiest QB on the slate. He is the top PT/$ play, and has upside in this matchup. His Scarlet Knights’ are implied to score 4+ TDs here against a shaky Maryland team. He throws it well, and also isn’t a complete 0 on the ground. We like Kaliakmanis here and believe he can be used in any contest, and even game stacked. 

Marcel Reed is a middle of the road play both PT/$ and points projection wise, but he has crazy upside. Reed has huge rushing upside. Had a 50 yard TD not been overturned against Arkansas, he would have back to back 100+ rushing games, and his price would’ve surely been over 9k. He hasn’t left off much passing in either contest either, throwing for 200+ and multiple TDs in each. Reed is a great GPP option with clear stacks. 

Josh Hoover can be used alone, but let’s be real we want to stack him. 

Julian Sayin is one of the safest QB options on the slate. His upside is a bit capped since he probably won’t run in a TD in a cupcake game, but his floor is 15-20, with a ceiling of 35-40. He is easily stackable, and not priced to break the bank. Sayin is projected to be pretty high owned, and we believe that he is great as a high-floor play, but would prefer either stacking him (1-2), or using another QB in GPPs for more upside. 

RB

Diore Hubbard projects as a PT/$ superstar here. 29 carries and 2 targets last game. A legit usage HOG. 32 touches doesn’t seem realistic here, but even with 14-17 he’s still an amazing play at this price. WVU is favored against a bad Colorado team, perfect time for a lead back to feast. Hubbard is one of our optimal options here.

Nate Sheppard may go underowned here, but it seems like he could be a complete smash. In last week’s contest he played 40 snaps, the next closest RB had only 25. He took on 13 carries, and 2 targets. His backup had only 5 carries, with 0 targets. This is close to a bellcow share here. Sheppard has potential for 20+ touches in this one if everything goes right. He’s sitting at 1.05 points per carry this season, and 1.83 points per target. So if we could see Sheppard with a 15 carry, 3 target game here, his season gives us a point total of 20+ here — and if he goes for multiple TDs or hits the bonus he probably gets near 35. In my opinion, he’s worth getting — even with Mensah if you can make it happen. Don’t build around it, but he’s the option I’d pay up for this slate. If you think Duke ROLLS then Anderson Castle  could see 10+ touches here, and at 4.6k that’s intriguing because he’s a broken run in garbage time away from a 15+ point outing. 

DeJaun Williams is looking fairly matchup proof at this price. Only 5 carries last week, but he saw 8 targets… his second week in a row with 8 targets. It’ll probably be a more even game here, maybe 10-15 carries, and 3-5 targets. This would be rock solid. With his price being right near Diore and J’Koby, it will be interesting to look at ownership between these guys. We prefer DeJaun to J’Koby slightly here. 

J’Koby Williams the man himself. He has a chance to be productive here as this matchup lends itself to more targets than carries, which is exactly what we’d want. Cameron Dickey will likely still lead in carries, but not by much. There is also more than enough ground work to go around here. Williams is a great play here, but as stated above he’s below DeJaun for us. This may make him a leverage play, as projections lead us to believe ownership will also skew toward DeJaun. 

Bo Jackson keeps getting carries, and has an excellent PT/$ here. He’s at 10+ in the past five games with 10 targets in that span as well. Jackson is due for positive TD regression — he only has 2 rushing TDs on 81 carries — which would make him a smash if he can find paydirt twice here. With 3 RBs priced near him taking ownership, this makes Jackson a great GPP option for leverage. If he outscores Hubbard, DeJaun + J’Koby, he’s almost assuredly a top 1% option solely due to ownership as most of the field with have those 1-3 of those guys listed. 

Antwan Raymond is in the Rutgers offense, which rewards RBs like no other team. He has 10+ carries in every game, with multiple rushing TDs in four contests. He also had a random 10 targets game, showcasing his upside through the air. Raymond is an excellent option with Rutgers boasting that 4+ score implied total here. 

Carson Hansen has been rolling lately, and gets a decent spot here against middle of the road run D. He will be overlooked at his price, but is projected to score among the top RBs. A rock solid play here. 

WR

Skyler Bell  top PT/$, pretty good matchup, nothing to dislike. He has 103 targets, next closest Husky at 28. He’s a 10+ target a game guy. Optimal. 

Que’Sean Brown is priced well again. He’s the clear 1B target with Cooper Barkate, but there are more than enough targets to go around. You can use both Blue Devil WRs in SEs with Mensah, and in large field GPP a game stack on Duke and Connecticut makes a ton of sense. With Mensah’s price, you could even get away with Barkate-Brown in large field honestly. If they both feast and Mensah does it all in the air, he likely still scores near 30. 350-3 is only 29 DK points, which probably wouldn’t be takedown material on a slate with a lot of high totals. But if both Barkate and Brown get 25-30, then they both are firmly in play for takedowns. Just an interesting angle to think about in large field GPPs. In SE/optimal, you’d want to stack. 

KJ Duff projects top be one of the top scoring WRs on the slate. He has massive upside here. His ownership will be interesting to see between him and team mate Ian Strong at $400 less. Both are great options and should see 5+ targets here with upside for double digits. A great matchup, and great usage makes them both excellent plays. 

Carnell Tate is priced far too low. Sub 6k for a WR in the best offense in CFB? Sheesh. The targets are still behind Jeremiah Smith, but they’re reasonable. A solid 10-6-7-5 his past four games. Tate is a rock solid play, though without TDs he could flub… the thing is, Ohio State can get TDs for whoever they want in games like tomorrows. Consider him a solid, safe option this weekend. Upside is probably among the highest on the slate if OSU decides they want to have a passing smash game, which is becoming more and more common this fall. 

Omar Cooper is a stud play here if Sarratt sits. While Cooper plays the slot to Sarratt’s boundary role, it is likely that Cooper would see a bump in usage. EJ Williams is the boundary most in line to gain work, while Charlie Becker saw the biggest snap boost last week in the left WR role after Sarratt’s injury. The targets weren’t there, but the snaps were. Now with a week to game plan, we may see a few designed looks for the Indiana WR in his place, which will be Becker, or possibly Lebron Bond. 

Zacharian Branch dominates targets for UGA, and his PT/$ is showing it. He’s our favorite WR in that 5k range, slightly outpacing Miller. Both are solid and likely pull from each other’s ownership making both solid options for leverage.

Omarion Miller saw 9 targets last game, and is heavily involved in this Colorado offense. His PT/$ makes him a very intriguing option here. With a 3+ score implied total he isn’t the more exciting play in the range, but against WVU anything can happen. Consider him, and even Joseph Williams reasonable GPP options here at price. 

Chase Sowell might find himself in a heavier usage spot here. He is a PT.$ darling, and ranks as one of the top real value plays here at WR. He had 11 targets last game, and has been steadily involved the past 4-5 weeks. Sowell is an excellent play, and a favorite for a runback if using TCU. 

Stacks:

Both

UGA (GPP): Stockton – Branch: A funnel stack as Branch has 54 targets, nearly double the next closest. Mississippi State has been a team to attack passing wise this season, so we love the potential here for a leverage play in GPPs. Can be runback with Evans, or Thompson. 

TTU: Morton – Douglas – Eakin/Virgil/Carter: Douglas saw 11 targets last game but TTU has been good at mixing up the looks this season. Virgil saw 9 targets but wasn’t as productive with them, and then Carter saw 5. We could easily see Virigil be the top guy here, or even a more heavy reliance on Eakin/Carter with underneath routes in a big game for them. Likely 2 TTU players, or 3 if you use J’Koby. Chase Roberts or Parker Kingston would be your BYU runbacks. 

Indy: Mendoza – Cooper – Williams – Becker 

OSU: Sayin – Smith – Tate: We mentioned it above. Smith clearly above Tate, but Tate is priced far too low. Both solid and can be used by themselves. Can use all 3 in GPPs. 

TAMU: Reed – Concepcion – Craver: A week off since the LSU game, we likely see one of these WRs get some early designed looked. My guess would be getting Craver into the end zone. Clear top two stacking options for one of the best fantasy QBs in the country. 

Ari (GPP): Fifita – Hutson – Whatley/Spivey – Richardson/Wysong: A nice implied total here, but a bit of a spread. This will be a great leverage stack in GPPs. Hutson is our favorite WR here, then Whatley. Spivey is close to Whatley because his routes are so opportunistic, and he’s making the plays on them. 

TCU: Hoover – McAlister – Dwyer: It’s a clear order of operations now for TCU. They will be low owned given the matchup, but still ooze upside. McAlister has been relied on in big games, but this could be a fun Dwyer spot as ISU has struggled with their secondary all season. Love this stack for leverage. Usually the WRs don’t both go off so we recommend using 1 Horned Frog WR, but 2 is definitely an option for GPPs with Dwyer priced down. You’d likely want 1-2 ISU guys if you go with 3 TCU players. 

Vandy: Pavia – Stowers – Sherill: You can play Pavia solo if you want, but the stacks are right here. We also have Tre Richardson, but he has fallen behind Sherrill it seems. Stowers the clear top option, especially in big games. 

DK

Rut: Kaliakmanis – Duff – Sheffield/Strong: Top target with Duff, and then we have the Sheffield/Strong combo more for GPPs. We do like the idea of Strong since the field likely takes Duff at $400 less. Strong has 66 targets to Duff’s 75, but Duff has 6 receiving TD to just 2 for Strong. A regression game would be elite leverage here. 

Mary (GPP): Washington – Williams – Knotts – Smith/Farooq: This is a good script and implied total here. The targets are spread amongst these guys a bit thin, but Knotts has 5/12 receiving TDs on the season. We like this stack as a Rutgers runback. We believe 2 is the sweet spot for a stack here, unless game stacking in which case 3 Maryland players. 

Duke: Mensah – Barkate – Brown: a 35+ implied total, and a clear target pecking order? Sure. Barkate sat a few plays after getting dinged up, and still had just one less target than Brown. Both are great plays set for 5+ targets here. We believe you can double stack Duke in GPPs, or even a QB-RB-WR run for them. Secondary WRs on Duke don’t have too much upside, but it’s Hagans or Anothony if you want the cheap exposure. 

Uconn: Fagnano – Bell: The reason we didn’t list Fagnano in the QB section is because he really dosn’t have upside without Bell. For him to go off, Bell has to. We don’t like Fagnano’s price, and believe he is best used in game stacks with Duke. Bell can be used anywhere. 

FD:

UVA (GPP): Morris – Ross – Edrine/Harris: A GPP stack here purely for leverage. Not many will take this route as everyone takes Taylor. 

Clem: Klubnik – Williams/Randall – Moore: A more optimal stack that is showing target share clarity. Antonio Williams had 12 targets last weekend, and was heavily involved. He’s a great play with or without Klub. The other options here are a bit more GPP. 

Bama: Simpson – Bernard/Williams – Horton/Cuevas: Williams had 11 targets last game, so he’s still a dude. Positive TD regression could come at anytime for Ryno too, further boosting the upside of a leverage Simpson-Williams stack here. 

Kansas: Daniels – Henderson – Pickett: They have a high implied total, and are the top two options here receiving. Could be fun to run it back with Fifita and co? Pricing on DK makes us like this stack a bit more on FD, though it can be used on either if you’re really feeling it. No reason Henderson is priced above Carnell Tate though, one of the main reasons we have this stack in the FD section. 

FSU (GPP): Castellanos – Robinson: A funnel target spot always deserves a stack look. Don’t mind this duo one bit, especially in an exploitable matchup. If FSU gets over their implied total of 3 TDs, it’ll likely be thanks to this pairing. 

Conclusion: This is a strange slate QB wise, but we like starting with Athan Kaliakmanis.  He’s near the top in PT/$, and has a fantastic matchup. QB2 is a bit of a question mark, but purely optimal we like Scotty Fox. He’s shown mobility, has a cupcake matchup, and massive upside at price. 

The RB position is much more clear cut. Diore Hubbard is the top dog. He projects near the top in every RB category, and is priced in the 4k range. A great play here. 

RB2 is a split with J’Koby and DeJaun Williams duking it out for the no.2 spot. Both are fantastic plays, though as we said above we slightly prefer DeJaun. Bo Jackson is our favorite leverage play at RB due to his similar price and lower ownership projections. 

WR revolves around Skyler Bell. He projects as the top WR on the slate, and is one of the biggest alpha targets in the country. Can’t go wrong here. 

The rest of your WRs likely depend on stacks, but PT/$ wise it’s hard to ignore Que’Sean Brown. DraftKings pricing is reasonable as Brown didn’t get a wild boost following a two TD game. He’s a great option here, and has upside at sub 5k. 

Guys to consider for GPPs for upside with ownership projections sub 20%: Jeremiah Smith, Nate Sheppard, Omar Cooper, Eric McAlister, Antwan Raymond. Sure, there are more than this, but these guys offer 100+ and multiple TD upside, yet are not being treated as such. A really good slate to slot in some of the clear cut value chalk, and the get different imo. 

Let’s eat! 

FanDuel

QB

Gunner Stockton see DK/Stack writeup

Diego Pavia see DK/Stack writeup

Ty Simpson see Stack writeup

Cade Klubnik see DK/Stack writeup

Tommy Castellanos see DK/Stack writeup

Josh Hoover see DK/Stack writeup

Jalon Daniels Is a bit underpriced and has a sweet PT/$ here, Daniels has upside, and an easy stack with Henderson in GPPs. A team total nearing 4 TDs doesn’t hurt one bit either. 

RB 

Jordan Lyle PT/$ superstar. Expected lead back for Miami with Fletcher out, and his price is absurd. With Miami in a plus matchup you can honestly use both him and CharMar Brown in GPPs. Both project well, and likely see 10+ touches a piece here with a chance for TD equity. The more I look at it, the more I think Lyle comes in higher than expected due to price. And on the other side of the coin, I think Brown will be underowned as people flock to Barnes at a similar price. 

J’Mari Taylor usage hog for UVA in a good spot. We like his upside here, and he projects as a top RB. Demond Claiborne makes for an excellent GPP runback as he also projects well, but not too high ownership wise. 

Kevorian Barnes projects as a top PT/$ play. He is far too cheap for a TCU team favored to score 30+ here. He’s a good leverage play off of the Miami RBs if you wanna get GPP, though he may come in near Brown in ownership as people jog out Lyle and refuse to double up Miami RBs. 

Bo Jackson see DK Writeup.

J’Koby Williams  see DK Writeup.

Ahmad Hardy is a workhorse in a good offense. Tougher matchup here, but the work is there. Don’t be afraid in GPPs as he can bust open a big play at any time. 

Carson Hansen  see DK Writeup.

WR

Malachi Toney I should probably have Miami in the stacks section, and I’m still debating it. But for now we take the alpha WR that is a PT/$ darling due to being severely underpriced. Optimal option.

Zacharian Branch  see DK Writeup.

Antonio Williams  see stack Writeup.

Duce Robinson see stack Writeup.

Kris Hutson see stack Writeup.

Emmanuel Henderson projects well and is the clear top target for Kansas. Cam Pickett is climbing slowly, and is worth a look in GPPs as well. We like the upside of Henderson with his big aDoT and upside for splash plays. 


Omar Cooper see DK/Stack writeup.

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