DK
QB: Retzlaff, Barnett III, Creel, Odom, Colandrea
RB: Knight, Cook, Hawkins, Thomas, McClure, Malary, Riley, Belcher
WR: Coppock, Young, Benyard, Dorner, D. Johnson, J. Bradley, Coleman, Brown-Stephens, Lauter, Moss
FD
QB: Odom, Creel, Retzlaff, Madsen, Colandrea, Mestemaker
RB: Knight, Cook, Hawkins, Thomas, McClure, Bennett
WR: Young, Caples, Benyard, Coleman, Coppock, Brown-Stephens, Dorner, Moss, Lauter
Some guys will be in stacks and not alone due to pricing discrepancies and other site specific info.
Stacks:
UNT
KENNS
UNLV
BOISE
TUL
JST
QB
Jake Retzlaff is priced too low on DraftKings. He has a smash PT/$, and is one of the best plays on the slate in this matchup. Retzlaff has HUGE upside here in a game with a near 7 implied total. He can be used in any format there. On FD, he is still a good option, but not our QB1. We’d rather go Amari Odom as our QB1. He’s priced well beneath Retzlaff, but is projected similar point wise. Odom has 7 rushing TDs, so he’ll call his own number when he needs to. Pair that with solid passing numbers too, and he’s an easy play to start your lineups.
Caden Creel projects well on both sites, and can be used on either one as your QB2. On FD, the ownership is trending to Creel, which would give us Retzlaff as a bit of leverage off of Creel. On DK, Creel and Odom are hovering fairly close as the complementary Sflex play paired with Retzlaff. Your build structure will dictate 1. If you need that $300 or not, and 2. If it fits with your stacks. An idea on Fanduel for GPPs: The chalk trend is running out a gamestack of QBs in the JState – KState game, while using skill positions from UNT-Tul. So just flip that around, pay up and grab the QBs from UNT-TUL for easy FD leverage while keeping basically the same team exposures.
We looked at putting Alonza Barnett on the FanDuel top plays, but honestly he’s just so overpriced there. He’s a fantastic play on DK, and usable in most any lineup at that price, but it’s hard to want to use him on FD when he’s priced above Retz, Creel, and Odom. Still, it’s a small slate so can’t fault it in GPPs, just wouldn’t make him a top-tier option there like he is on DK.
Drew Mestemaker is priced as QB3 on DK, and QB1 on FD. He is a rock solid play stacked on both sites, though his price on FD makes it a bit tough. On DK, you can use Mestemaker in most any format due to his excellent price point. We do like the idea of stacking UNT passing on FD for leverage, though it could be tough given their gaudy prices. More on that in the stacks section.
RB
Wayne Knight is our RB1 across both sites. He projects as the top RB in most all categories, and has the metrics to boot. He dominates snaps, carries, and targets out of the JMU backfield. The only knock is Barnett’s affinity for stealing TDs. This makes Knight more fadeable on FD, because he could definitely get outscored there if Barnett takes 2-3 rushing scores and keeps Knight out of the endzone. We don’t like fading him on DK in any scenario however, due to his 44 targets on the season and potential for 100+ both on the ground or in the air. In summary: Knight is the optimal RB1 across the board, but fadable in GPPs on FD due to leverage possibility of him not scoring TDs.
Cam Cook and Caleb Hawkins are two of the second tier RB options here. Cook projects well PT/$ wise on both sites, and has a lot of upside. Hawkins on the other hand is priced insanely high, but is scoring TDs at an unreal clip lately. Due to the pricing difference, we prefer Cook on both sites given his workhorse role and price point. Hawkins is a solid option in both spots as well, but lineups with him may trend GPP solely due to how you have to work around his price to fill your roster.
Coleman Bennett projects fairly well both sites, a much better PT/$ play on DK. Issue is, his workload in sporadic. He has the upside for 20+ touches, but an average of right near 13 touches per game. Not the best scoring threat either. We like Bennett more on DK for sure, but believe he is a nice GPP play with upside — evidenced by his target share. With only 6 TD on the season, it’s hard to really grasp what a ceiling game would be for him here.
Jamauri McClure is starting for Tulane, and has some upside. He projects well PT/$ on both sites, but is especially popping on FD. He is a very nice value over there as he is priced ridiculously low for this matchup. The kicker here is that he splits with Javin Gordon a good bit, and Retzlaff is a true TD vulture up close. Both McClure and Gordon can be used on FD, but it seems like McClure has the upside. He put together a nice 17 carry game a few weeks back. Neither back holds too much upside as long as they both stay on the field, but the potential for 10+ touches at that price is a solid route for GPPs to allow you to pay up elsewhere.
The Boise State RB situation is hard, but Dylan Riley comes in as the top option for us here. He projects well, and has been getting a solid workload lately. Since week 10 (4 games) Riley has 65 carries for Boise State, rushing for 284-3 in that span. Sire Gaines has been very solid as well in the same time frame, but Riley has been the guy they lean on early and in close games. Riley has 11+ carries in all but one game dating back to week 7 — and recently has 14+ carries in each of his past 3 games, along with a TD in each one as well — while Gaines has 10 carries or less in four games in that same timeframe. They do ride the hot hand a bit, but Riley has been the one consistently getting work in most all contests. Not to mention his ceiling. Riley has game breaking upside, shown when he blasted UNLV for 201 last time on just 15 carries, so we love his upside tonight at what could be leverage ownership.
WR
Clayton Coppock is the PT/$ star on DK. He projects as the top value by a decent margin here. His price on FD prevents him from being optimal, but he is still solid there. Coppock has 5+ targets in each of his past three games, with 3 TD in that span as well. At 3.9k, you really can’t go wrong.
For leverage off his chalk on DK, we like to look at Miles Coleman, Deondre Johnson, or RaRa Thomas. Coleman is projects fairly low owned, but he really hasn’t seen much work lately snap wise. However, he has been targeted on 56% of his routes since week 10. He only has 14 targets in that span, but hasn’t been bad with them on just 25 routes run. He’s GPP with a low floor, but if he sees 20 routes run, he could be in line for a 7+ target game here — and he had 5+ targets in every game from season start to week 7 (his injury derailed him a bit). He has since been passed by Wyatt Young, but could still easily slip into a decent role tonight if North Texas trails early.
Johnson is a nice option who has flourished since we caught his breakout game on a random weeknight in October. Johnson has scored in every game since then, and has seen 4+ targets in all but one of those games. We can’t expect a major role, but a handful of targets and a red zone role are firmly in play.
Thomas has a very involved role for Troy, seeing up to 11 targets in a game this year. He sits around the 4-7 range usually, with a decent aDoT. 2 TDs last outing is encouraging given his role, maybe that regression keeps up and Thomas can find paydirt again here?
We mentioned Wyatt Young above. He’s the top slot for North Texas now… Which is a VERY fruitful role. Probably looking at 5-7 targets at minimum here with upside. He’s a great play. Cam Dorner is the top boundary for UNT, and he has a splashly role. His aDoT climbed to near 20 one game this season, and sits at 11 on the year. He doesn’t get the most targets, but should comfortably see 4+ here. Landon Sides could take from him, and if Sides is efficient that’s an easy route to a floor game for Dorner.
Gabriel Benyard is the top target on Kennesaw, and has the most targets on the slate since week 9 with 44. We wouldn’t prioritize him over Young or anything like that, but see Benyard as a nice upside option since he is the focal point of this passing attack. Using him and fading Coppock could be easy leverage since a ceiling game from Benyard likely means a near floor game for Coppock barring a complete shootout in the Kennesaw contest.
Latrell Caples is a chalky option on FD, and a solid GPP on DK. His price is just absurd on FD, so no surprise he has an excellent PT/$. Caples has a healthy target role, but has seen a bit of a dip in production lately — perhaps due to Madsen’s injury, which could be a bit worse than they’re letting on. Still, he gets 4+ targets most games, with double-digit upside is they trail. Also, very due for positive TD regression. Jaden Bradley is a bit more expensive, but a fun leverage off of Caples on both sites. He has huge upside given his routes, and will be pretty low owned here.
One more guy to mention: DJ Epps. He has been very good since week 9, and has a bit of upside. A nice low owned value that could hit for a TD and be a real difference on the slate in a range that’s kind of up in the air price wise on DK.
No surprise here, but Johnson leads in aDoT with a 24 spot. Nick DeGennaro, Benyard, Bradley, Thomas, and Christian Moss the guys with legit roles and aDoT’s sitting ~15+ in recent games.
JST: Creel – Johnson: This is a fun stack, not a real optimal one, but good upside in GPP with Johnson’s role as a deep threat. You don’t have to stack here, because we want Creel running it. He has six 100+ games this season, so his legs are the key to his fantasy success.
UNT: Mestemaker – Young – Dorner/Coleman: Ho-hum, we know this stack. Tons of work, clear roles. Upside lies with Young given the affinity for the slot in this offense.
KENNS: Odom – Benyard – Coppock/Moss: Targets run through these two here. Since week 9 they make up for 96 of the 143 passing attempts for Kennesaw.
UNLV: Colandrea – Thomas/Bradley – Reynolds: They’ve gotten to be a nice funnel. Bradley is the clear alpha, followed by DaeDae Reynolds. However, Thomas is right behind Reynolds AND gets that rushing work. Colandrea – Thomas – Bradley is a fun upside play if they can really get the ball moving against a fairly sturdy D.
BOISE: Madsen – Caples: This one is tough because they might just rely on the ground game here. Using Caples solo would be our preferred move, listing this stack though for GPP upside in case they trail and do have to throw. We suspect they will try to ground and pound here though, making Riley and Gaines more active, and maybe even Sherrod.
TUL: Retzlaff – Brown-Stephens/Preston: Here for the GPP aspect. Retzlaff targets Brown-Stephens a good bit, especially lately. But we NEED Retzlaff to do his thing on the turf for a true ceiling here. 14 passing TD compared to 14 rushing TD on the season. We need him to do more of the 6 point ones here, so stacking isn’t a smash. However, using one for yardage purposes and the catches, we prefer Stephens, but leverage (and floor) is with Preston.
Conclusion: A small appetizer before the big dog tomorrow, but still a solid slate. On DK we like going with Jake Retzlaff as our optimal QB1, while on FanDuel it’s Amari Odom. You can flank them on both sites with Caden Creel.
RB runs through Wayne Knight on this slate, as he projects as a smash across the board. Cam Cook projects really well, and is priced at a nice spot. A lot of people probably go with him, making Caleb Hawkins a leverage option if you can find a way to get up to him.
WR is tougher, but we like Clayton Coppock as a nice value on DK. He is definitely fadeable though, and we have numerous leverage options touched on in the writeup above. Wyatt Young is a great play on both sites. He has one of the best usage roles in CFB, and projects well raw points wise.
Let your lineup flow naturally, don’t force too much tonight. We’ve got a lot of high totals, so there are more than enough points to go around.
Per usual, Let’s Eat!