| Team | Implied Total | Slate Rank DK | Total Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 30 | 3 | 3 |
| GT | 23 | 4 | 4 |
| MONTS | 31.25 | 2 | 2 |
| UNM | 22.25 | 5 | 5 |
| SMU | 41.75 | 1 | 1 |
| NEV | 14.75 | 6 | 6 |
Top Plays
QBs: Mellott, Stone, Dampier, King, Uiagalelei
RBs: Smith, Johnson Jr., Haynes, Williams, Toafilli, Humphrey
WRs: Singleton Jr., Benson, Maryland, McCullouch, Trujillo, Hudson, Dixon, Bailey
It’s been too long folks, but we’re back.
Let’s get this out of the way for this slate: it’s SMALL. All QBs are in play. We don’t love going the route of Nevada with their low total and shaky QB outlook, but it’s not awful — especially if they can outproduce their implied total. Either way, let’s get into this breakdown.
It seems both sites missed the memo on Montana State and New Mexico, because we have loads of value in this game. Topping the PT/$ charts this weekend at QB is Montana State QB Tommy Mellott. Mellott ran as one of two QBs for Montana State last fall in an unorthodox dual-QB backfield. The news this year seems to point toward a more traditional offense with Mellott under center. Even in that role last year he was a fantasy weapon, rushing for 693 yards and five scores. Mellott had 18+ carries twice last season, and eclipsed the century mark rushing four times. With the QB spot to himself, we could see huge numbers this fall. Mellott’s Bobcats have a 4+ TD implied total, giving him ample chances to put up points. Mellott is our top QB option this Saturday.
Preston Stone is in line for a great opening weekend and is not nearly as inflated in ownership projections as we would have thought. His team boasts a huge 42 implied total, giving Stone ample chances to produce. He was great last season, tossing for 28 TDs, while rushing for four. There is blowout risk here, but it is very likely this game blows out because Stone has a great outing. With decreased ownership projections, this seems like an excellent attack spot on a three game slate.
Following him we have New Mexico signal caller Devon Dampier. Dampier is a value option you can play in both cash and GPPs this Saturday. Dampier showed mobility last season, rushing 29 times across his last three games for 144 and two TDs. Of those three games, one was a blowout, one was a close win, and one was a high scoring loss. This tells us that in virtually any game script, Dampier is set to tote the rock for us a bit this weekend. It’s worth noting that Dampier was also in a split backfield, so we can reasonably expect his totals to improve upon last season – especially since he was barely getting run early on behind Dylan Hopkins. In the Boise State game, he had the QB spot to himself. He passed for 200 yards (no turnovers) and ran 13 times for 48 yards. This Montana State defense is MUCH softer than Boise, so we like Dampier’s potential here. He’s one of our favorite QBs on the slate, checking in right near the top of the PT/$ table on both sites.
Haynes King is a bit underpriced this weekend – especially on DraftKings. He threw for 27 TDs last season, and rushed for 10. He had at least 40 rushing yards in 11/13 games last season, building a nice floor. King makes for a nice value pivot off of our top two QBs in any format. For large-field GPPs, you could stack this game, playing for a shootout in the FSU/GT game. King could be a skeleton key Saturday if he can find paydirt a couple times on the ground.
Brashard Smith is checks in as our top RB option on Saturday. He is the top PT/$ option at the RB position, and he truly oozes potential as the Mustangs have a 42 point implied total. SMU listed a 3 RB “or” on the depth chart, but Smith was listed at the top of the three. At minimum, he’ll get some on both in the passing, and rushing game touches here. It’s also worth noting that the coaching staff has made it clear that he will be used all over the formation Saturday. A former WR at Miami, Smith has a unique skill set that could prove fruitful in producing big plays for SMU this fall. It’s yet to be seen if Smith is a guy we can count on for an abundance of touches, but it’s been made clear he’ll be involved both in the passing game, and on the turf. He’s a great value option this weekend in all formats.
The other two “or” options on the SMU depth chart are LJ Johnson Jr. and Jaylan Knighton. Given word out of camp and price — Johnson is a much better PT/$ option — we prefer Johnson to Knighton here. It seems SMU is content splitting up touches, and only one of the RBs (Smith) has a clear passing game role. Johnson split the backfield a couple ways last season, but finished with a solid 575-4 line on the turf. Johnson got 14+ carries in four games, eclipsing 100 yards in three of them. RB coach Kyle Cooper has made it clear that they aren’t viewing it as a “starter” for this one. This leads us to believe that Knighton, Johnson and Smith will all get a healthy opportunity to strut their stuff in this one as SMU boasts the highest total on the slate. Johnson can be used in cash games with Smith, but in GPPs we like splitting them up. Knighton will likely be the lowest owned of the trio if you want to chase that leverage, but we prefer them in the order of Smith, Johnson, Knighton.
Jamal Haynes is another RB we love on this slate. He projects among the top PT/$ plays at the RB position on both sites. Haynes ran for 1000 yards last season, but the key for us was his role in the passing game. Haynes had a consistent role all season, seeing at least one target in every game. Haynes was a WR his first two seasons at GT, but made the move to RB last fall. This shows how much potential he has in the passing game — a potential the GT coaching staff has made clear. Haynes had 11+ carries in all but three games last season. This steady role, combined with his passing game upside make him an excellent option on Saturday.
Scottre Humphrey is poised to see an uptick here with Julius Davis out. Humphrey is underpriced given his role here, and his projections show this. He projects to be among the top 3 RBs this weekend, both in raw points and PT/$ and in ownership. Humphrey may split work slightly with Adam Jones, but not enough to take us off Humphrey. With all the value we have, it’s also hard to want to use Jones since he really doesn’t have a path to optimal unless A LOT goes awry for Montana State. Humphrey in the lead back role is poised to see a healthy workload, with the possibility of goal line work. Humphrey and Mellott can be used together in all formats, but for GPPs you could maximize upside by using only one of them. This is due to the fact that the upside comes from rushing TDs and they could vulture each other, limiting your ceiling. Regardless, Humphrey is an excellent value option this weekend.
Our last RB to touch on is FSU RBs Roydell Williams and Lawrance Toafili. With a heavy RB room, it seems FSU coach Mike Norvell is going back to his Memphis days. The depth chart has two RB positions listed, with Williams and Toafili each getting a start. This could be a Patrick Taylor/Darrel Henderson type situation (2018 Memphis) which would allow both players to get a decent workload as we saw Memphis produce two DFS worthy backs each week. We have a unique situation where projections are pushing up Williams a ton, so for GPPs we love to take a look at Toafili. The MVP of the 2023 ACC Championship game, Toafili is set to get a decent workload here, and has the trust and respect of of the coaching staff after making it clear that he was coming back for the 2024 season as a slew of players left the program. As long as ownership sides with Williams, we’ll pay up for Toafili in GPPs and take the reduced ownership for an RB with a similar expected workload.
WR
Eric Singleton is our top WR, and he projects as the top pass catcher in PT/$ on the slate. Singleton saw 82 targets for GT last season. This was top on the team by 16 targets, despite playing one less game. He and QB Haynes King formed a great rapport, and they make for one of the best stacks on the slate this weekend. He’s priced reasonably, and we like to start our WRs with Singleton this weekend.
Next up we have Ty McCullouch. He projects near the top of the WR boards this weekend. He is the most experienced WR on his team, ranking second in targets (33) despite only playing 8 games. He compiled a 25-433-5 line, due in large part to his route tree. He had a 16 aDoT last season. McCullouch is set to be the top receiving option for them this season, with a secure role and explosive route tree. He can be deployed in all formats this weekend.
RJ Maryland was the target leader for SMU last season, with just 48 targets. The Mustangs spread it out last season, as 8 different WR had 30+ targets. Maryland is the only non “or” on the offensive skill positions besides Stone. Maryland is a matchup nightmare at TE, playing in the slot as well as some inline work. He led the team with receiving TDs last season with seven. He didn’t just score up close though, finding the endzone from 40+ yards three times. Maryland projects as one of the top WR on the slate, and while his lack of volume is concerning, his red zone work and TD equity (with SMU’s 6 TD implied total) make him one of our favorite pass catching options this weekend.
The rest of the SMU WR are GPP options this weekend, solely because they could score a long one. It’s worth noting that Jordan Hudson was tied with Maryland for the team lead in receiving TD last year with 7, and that Moochie Dixon had an aDoT of 20. Jake Bailey is on absolutely nobody’s radar but is priced right in line with the rest because of the algorithm and the point total. Should he rotate in and be on the receiving end of a Stone bomb he is probably optimal. We would not run him in cash games but if you want to try and get different on a three gamer, he could win you tournaments.
Going to FSU now, Malik Benson is an option on our radar. He projects fairly well, but we’re here for the upside. He’s the clear top option for FSU, and Mike Norvell was excellent at utilizing his transfer WR talent last fall with Keon Coleman. We love Benson’s upside here, and believe he is a great play Saturday, but prefer him in GPPs.
For those of you who want a deep GPP play, it’s Nic Trujillo. The redshirt steps in as the presumed top option for New Mexico. He’s built a good rapport with QB, Devon Dampier, and has some upside here as a 3.8k punt.
Conclusion: Week 0 is always a wild card in terms of DFS. In optimal lineups, you should start with the heavy ownership hitters in Eric Singleton Jr., Tommy Mellot, Jamal Haynes, Brashard Smith and one of Scottre Humphrey or Roydell Williams. In tournaments, we like forcing Preston Stone in as often as possible. He currently projects for the 5th most ownership at the QB position and should be in a debate for the top owned option. A combination of Mellot and Stone is probably a really great place to start on this three-game slate, but we want you to know, Haynes King has a really high ceiling and projects for half the ownership of Mellott. A team total of 42 is a must attack spot for SMU, which has RJ Maryland fully in play as our favorite receiver, but don’t be afraid to look at Hudson as well. He is written as a GPP only play for a reason, because his volatility certainly could leave a lineup hurting, but he has the upside to blow the slate wide open as well. Moochie Dixon is a deep ball threat any time he is on the field with the aDOT of 20 yards. He could run into a home run play as well. Jake Bailey has upside here but will play less snaps than the others so just know that going in. Some variation of an SMU stack is what you should be rolling this weekend, and we really don’t think you can have too many. By using the optimal core above, pricing is really no issue this weekend, so you need to take some stands and live with them.