Update: Somehow none of us realized that we forgot to discuss George Kittle in the breakdown. I believe we talked about him on the podcast so I’m not really sure how this happened, but I wanted to provide clarity that we do like him as one of the best tight end plays on the slate. Kittle sees nice bumps in TPRR and target share with Deebo sidelined. Obviously he’s not sidelined, but he could be limited. If you want to bill with that narrative of Deebo being more of a decoy, then Kittle makes a lot of sense. The lions are a good matchup for tight ends, but the concern for Kittle is always that he doesn’t get as much volume as other top tight ends. I like LaPorta a little better because I think he’ll be lower owned and will get more targets, but Kittle is definitely a good play and is even better in lineups with Purdy.
Conference Championship Sunday gives us one final two-game slate for the NFL season. Similar to how we’ve been doing these playoff slates, we’re not going to provide a header. Player A may be a better play than Player B in a vacuum, but based on the rest of your lineup, it may make sense to use Player B. On these two game slates, you want to build with a narrative in mind of how the games will go. Don’t forget that a unique build will often have a higher expected return in GPPs than a common build that projects for more points. After diving deep into these matchups, we feel great about the way to attack this slate, so let’s dive in!
The day kicks off with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs traveling to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. As Matt said on the podcast, there’s two potential narratives to buy into for this game surrounding the Chiefs. You can buy into the Patrick Mahomes experience as a whole, and lean heavily into what they’ve done over the past few weeks. The alternative is buying into this season’s production as a whole, as this Chiefs’ offense has looked like an average unit with minimal explosiveness. That’s the side we lean, believing Kansas City got two great draws in the opening rounds of the playoffs, and now they get a brutal test on the road in Baltimore. We lean towards fading this offense rather than stacking it.
Kansas City’s offensive game plan as of late has been to pound it with Isiah Pacheco, and attack the middle of the field with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. KC opened the playoffs against the Dolphins, who were dealing with numerous injuries to key pass rushers and linebackers, allowing Mahomes to sit back and attack the middle of the field. Not to mention this game was played in extreme weather, which inhibited Miami’s ability to pass rush even more. They then went to Buffalo to play the Bills, who were on a two-day rest disadvantage. Buffalo was also down multiple key starters on defense, massively weakening their ability to defend the middle of the field, and once again the weather was extreme. If the offensive line could’ve bought Josh Allen another half a second, he likely connects with Khalil Shakir in the back of the end zone, and we have a different matchup this weekend. Regardless of that outcome, what we’re trying to emphasize is that the Chiefs have had success offensively against two battered defenses in unique weather conditions, and that may not be predictive of what will happen against Baltimore.
Instead of a third straight game against a weak opponent, Kansas City is going on the road to face the best defense in the league. We saw Houston carve up Cleveland’s elite defense in the Wild Card round before being held to three offensive points and failing to cross Baltimore’s 27-yard line. Detroit was objectively a better offense than the Chiefs this year, and they scored just six points in Baltimore. San Francisco put together one of the best offensive seasons of all time per DVOA, and they had just 12 points prior to a garbage time Sam Darnold drive. This defense is clearly underrated based on the 4 point spread in Baltimore, and we think the KC offense is going to struggle.
Kansas City will be without Joe Thuney, which is a massive loss on the offensive line. Kansas City has been utilizing more 2TE sets in the playoffs to run the ball, but that’s unlikely to work this week, as Baltimore ranks among the tops of the league defending the run from heavy boxes.
Baltimore has elite players manning the middle of the field in Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith, which is levels different from what Kansas City has faced the past two weeks.
Baltimore has been elite defending tight ends, allowing the fourth-fewest DraftKings points per game to the position. They have the horses to game plan against Kelce. When it comes to Rice, Baltimore has allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points per game to WR1s, allowing the fewest yards per target to slot and perimeter receivers. We also saw Rice get banged up in last week’s game, so it’s unclear how healthy he is, and Pacheco is officially listed as questionable.
We like fading this Kansas City offense as a whole, as it’s simply not a strong unit in our opinion. Mahomes has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points per game over the past eleven games, and they’re on the road against the best defense in the league. If forced to choose one of the elite Chief options, it would be Kelce, but we don’t think you necessarily need any of them.
If we get more conviction about the gadgety receivers in Kadarius Toney or Mecole Hardman, we will update. However, the lone spot of interest currently is on the overlooked KC perimeter receivers Marquez-Valdes Scantling and Justin Watson. Watson is currently projecting for more ownership, but with Kelce, Rice, Pacheco, and Hardman all projecting for more, we’re not too worried about playing Watson at 10-15%. MVS ran 14 routes to 11 for Watson last week, and MVS came up clutch when he was needed, while Watson dropped his lone target. This is another situation of choosing a narrative to buy into. Watson was the more productive receiver all season long who Mahomes trusted, while MVS performed better last round and in some big games last year, so maybe he’s earned the right to be counted on again in the AFC Championship. There’s a decent chance this is a moot point, as I’m expecting KC to run less 2TE sets and more 3WR sets, which would give Watson and MVS more opportunities to be out there together. Both are fine options, but Justin thinks MVS is the better play while Matt prefers Watson (as of Thursday night). Matt’s current lineup needs the $100 discount, making the decision easy for him at this moment. Justin thinks the lower ownership on MVS is worth prioritizing when they are more or less equal in terms of projection, and it’ll likely come down to one play for either of them to be the higher scorer.
On the Baltimore side, we have to start with Lamar Jackson. Jackson once again showed his monster ceiling last week, running for 100 yards and two scores while throwing for 152 yards and two scores. We’ve seen Lamar have a lot of success against man-heavy and blitz-heavy defenses, and Kansas City fits that to a tee. We also know Steve Spagnuolo likes to blitz Jackson, having blitzed him on 44% and 43% of his dropbacks in his past two matchups against the mobile QB. Jackson has three total games against Spagnuolo-led defenses, with 236 yards and three touchdowns on the ground on 33 carries. We’ve seen Kansas City struggle against mobile quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the ground. Jackson is a spectacular play and the most likely quarterback to separate from the rest. You can run him naked or pair him with a pass-catcher or two.
The Baltimore backfield is where things get interesting, and is one of our favorite ways to attack this slate. Gus Edwards had ten carries for 40 yards last week and saw two targets. A lot was made of Justice Hill’s performance last week, as he had 66 yards on 13 carries and caught both of his targets for 11 yards. He did look explosive and run well, there’s no denying that. However, it seems like everyone is overreacting and saying the hierarchy of the Baltimore backfield has shifted. Edwards hurt his hand early in the fourth quarter and was kept out for precautionary reasons for the rest of the game. They were already up three scores, and had no reason to throw Edwards back out there. Hill has always taken the bulk of the passing work and mixed in as the early down back, but Edwards is still the lead back here. The last time we saw Baltimore in a must win spot was Week 17 against Miami for the 1 seed, and Edwards handled 16 carries and dominated the ground touches before the game was out of reach. Hill isn’t going anywhere, but this is still going to be Edwards seeing 55-65% of the touches on the ground. He’s out-touched Hill 20 to 4 inside the five yard line, giving Edwards almost all of the close range touchdown equity (for the running backs. Obviously Lamar is a big threat around the goalline). This Chiefs defense has allowed the seventh-most yards per carry to opposing backs on the year, and they’ve especially struggled against power runs, which Gus specializes in. With how successful Baltimore should be on the ground, we like using Jackson with Edwards in the same lineup. Yes, it’s unlikely both of them hit a top percentile outcome, but this isn’t a 13-game main slate. There’s two games, and Edwards is probably going to be capped around 25% ownership, and will probably be even lower owned in small fields. The combination of Edwards and Jackson is going to be extremely unique, but makes a lot of sense when you look at how Baltimore should attack Kansas City. You don’t have to force it, but keep in mind that both Lamar and Edwards could easily be optimal and it’ll be a rare combination.
The other reason as to why Jackson and Edwards together is strong is that we don’t love most of the Baltimore pass catchers, and playing Jackson and Gus should allow you to soak up all of Baltimore’s touchdowns. Zay Flowers is someone we’re avoiding for multiple reasons. Regardless of matchup and role, we haven’t seen much of a ceiling from him this year. He has topped 20 DraftKings points just four times all year, scoring between 20-23.2 in all of them. He’s eclipsed 100 yards once, and only has three games with more than five catches, with six, six, and nine. Essentially you need Flowers to find the end zone, which may be a tall ask this week. Mark Andrews is set to return, and Flowers’ target rate per route run drops 3% with Andrews on the field, and he has just one touchdown on the year with Andrews on the field, with zero end zone targets. A touchdown-dependent play with zero end zone targets in this situation is not ideal. To make matters worse, he gets the stone-cold worst matchup for No. 1 receivers. Kansas City has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to WR1s, averaging just 43 yards per game allowed. Flowers does run some routes from the slot which boosts him a little bit, but Kansas City has still allowed the sixth-fewest yards per target to slot receivers. Speaking of Andrews, his return just muddies up the tight end room between him and Isaiah Likely. Baltimore didn’t run many 2TE sets with Andrews and Likely both healthy earlier in the year, despite Likely playing well last season. This makes us fear they will continue to avoid 2TE sets, which makes both of them touchdown dependent in a rotation. Kansas City has allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game to tight ends, and the ninth-lowest touchdown rate. We prefer Andrews to Likely, as we haven’t seen Likely earn much volume in Andrews’ absence, and he can be a ghost when Andrews plays. We like Andrews fine for GPPs as he has the potential to have a larger role than the field is expecting.
We were interested in Odell Beckham Jr. last week, expecting Baltimore to unleash him in the playoffs. This was far from the case, as he ran a route on just 28% of the dropbacks and saw one target. Beckham doesn’t really run block, so it kind of makes sense that they didn’t use him too much. Especially at this point in the year with the best of the best, you never want to tip your hand and show the opponent what you’re doing. Having Beckham out there pretty much telegraphs what Baltimore is doing, while Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor are more diverse, having run a route on 72% and 62% of dropbacks and doing a lot of run blocking. Bateman caught all three of his targets for 39 yards, while Agholor caught two of four targets for 12 yards and a score. We’ve seen Kansas City get beat by secondary receiving options, which brings appeal here. Bateman is our favorite, as he’s the cheapest with the strongest role. Both Agholor and Beckham Jr. are viable as well. Agholor is a safe bet to run a route on 50%+ of dropbacks, as he has all year. Beckham Jr. is a fine way to make Lamar stacks unique, but that’s far down the list of our preferred ways to attack this slate. It’s unlikely we see Odell run so few routes this week, but the potential for his role to be expanded from what it was in the regular season seems to be out the window. He’s a desperation play where you’re hoping for a TD, but that also kind of sums up all the Ravens WRs.
Shifting over to the second game, San Francisco survived a scare last week against Green Bay, and now gets a home matchup against the Lions. Brock Purdy had a game to forget against the Packers, as he completed less than 60% of his passes for 252 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t have a turnover, but if you watched the game, you saw multiple balls that should’ve been picked off, and Purdy consistently missing receivers. Purdy has small hands, and the rain is always something that he’s struggled with. We’ve also seen the Packers’ defense step up and play their best games against top competition, playing great against the Chiefs earlier this year, and holding Dallas’ offense to limited production before garbage time. There’s going to be clear skies on Sunday in San Francisco, and Purdy gets a matchup with a Detroit defense who has been carved up down the stretch. They’ve allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks this year, and have been a constant target for us as of late. They have a solid pressure rate, but Purdy is still second in the league in yards per attempt under pressure. The likely limitations on Deebo Samuel hurts, but Purdy still has multiple elite weapons at his disposal. If not chasing the ceiling with Jackson, Purdy looks like a very strong option.
Christian McCaffrey’s projection this week is laughable, as he’s head and shoulders above everyone else. It’s a great juxtaposition of an elite role and player going against an elite run defense. McCaffrey has averaged over 26 DraftKings points per game this year, with the ultimate combination of floor and ceiling. The Lions have allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs on the year. However, Rachaad White was able to touch them up for 91 yards and a score last week. They’ve also been susceptible to backs through the air at times, and McCaffrey is likely to see an uptick in passing game usage if Samuel is limited. Whether Samuel suits up or not, we’re of the belief that he’s not going to be much of a factor, as he didn’t do much when he played hurt this year. He’s a valuable decoy, and he’s shown a willingness to go out and play through injury without getting the ball much. So if he does suit up, it’s still likely that San Francisco shifts his rushing work over to McCaffrey, further boosting CMC’s outlook. It’s also hard to expect San Francisco’s play-calling to shift more towards the pass with Deebo limited or out, so the only potential changes are likely all of the rush work shifting to McCaffrey, and a potential for their play-calling to shift more run-heavy. All signs point to McCaffrey being leaned on heavily, and he has multiple paths to smashing, making him a very difficult fade. He’s so expensive on FanDuel so it’s more of a conversation, but fading him on DraftKings feels very thin.
Shifting to the pass-catchers, Brandon Aiyuk is our latest rendition of “attack the top receiver against Detroit”. We’ve seen them simply be incapable of stopping top receiving options down the stretch. They’ve allowed Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jefferson again, Puka Nacua, and Mike Evans to EACH eclipse 140 yards AND score a touchdown over the past five weeks. I discussed on the pod that I’m slightly worried about Aiyuk potentially seeing safety help if Samuel misses, but I think I’m just galaxy-braining myself. They can’t stop anyone, and Aiyuk is an elite receiver who may see a bump in targets due to Samuel’s injury. He’s my favorite receiver on the slate. I already touched on Samuel, but I’ll further dive into it. He played limited in Weeks 4 and 5 with a rib injury, and had three total targets. He’s truly a boom/bust option. If running only one or a handful of lineups, which most of us are, we don’t feel like this is a situation to lean into playing Samuel. If MME’ing, it may be worth sprinkling a few lineups with Deebo in there given his big play upside. With Samuel off the field last week, Jauan Jennings ran 28 routes and caught four balls, while Ray-Ray McCloud and Chris Conley both ran 16 routes and caught one ball each. Jennings had five catches total, as one of his catches came with Deebo on the field. Jennings becomes interesting in GPPs, but he hasn’t been anything special with Deebo sidelined this year. Samuel missed two games this year, and Jennings caught five of nine targets for 54 yards in one game, while not seeing a single target in the other. If Samuel is out or limited, Jennings is a fine GPP value. If the team says Deebo is fine (even though we won’t really believe that), we’re just going to stay away. We far prefer the tertiary options on other teams before we want to chase Jennings or the other cheap 49ers receivers.
On the Detroit side, they got good news with Frank Ragnow reportedly being healthy enough to suit up. That’s a big gain, as they’re already down Jonah Jackson. Ragnow is dealing with multiple injuries, and he’s unlikely to be at 100%. The 49ers have a daunting pass rush, and they can wreck this game. San Francisco has faced Goff multiple times and he has a sub-40% completion percentage for just 4.9 yards per attempt in his career under pressure against San Francisco. Goff struggled against the Rams and Bucs when he was pressured, but he was kept clean for most of that game. This is the most daunting test yet, and Detroit’s offensive line is less than 100%. Even in smash matchups, Goff has mostly failed to post high end fantasy scores. This is far from a smash matchup, as San Francisco has allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. He’s not on our radar this week as we think Purdy and Lamar are the clear best options.
San Francisco is beatable on the ground, which draws our attention to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. San Francisco has been especially vulnerable to runs to the perimeter, and those would appear to be Gibbs carries. However, since both backs have become healthy, the outside runs are basically a 55/45 split in favor of Gibbs. When it comes to runs between the tackles, it’s essentially a 2/1 split favoring Monty. Everyone has been calling for Gibbs all year, and yes, he’s explosive. However, the facts are the facts. Monty has out-snapped Gibbs 71 to 45 in the playoffs, out-touched him 29 to 25, and he’s actually run more routes. The Lions are likely going to try to play smash mouth football and keep the ball out of San Francisco’s hands. At lower ownership and a depressed price, we prefer Montgomery to Gibbs. If Craig Reynolds didn’t jump into the game when he wasn’t supposed to last week and Montgomery got the score, would we see such a drop in Montgomery’s price? Doubtful. Face the facts, and embrace the less sexy play. Take us home, David. I also want to note that RGP seems to be the only site in the industry projecting Montgomery higher than Gibbs, so we could get lower ownership on him even though he costs less.
The pass-catchers are led by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has topped 20 DraftKings points in six straight games. He’s topped 30 DraftKings points four times this year, as he truly had a great season. This is the toughest matchup he’s had in a while, and with us already worried about Goff, it does cause some concern for St. Brown. However, he’s a top fantasy receiver, there’s no denying that. Will San Francisco be able to scheme targets away from St. Brown? Who knows. Whether running routes from the perimeter or slot, St. Brown does most of his damage in the middle of the field. That isn’t necessarily where you want to attack San Francisco, as they have Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw roaming the middle of the field. If you can fit both St. Brown and McCaffrey, then great. However, if you’re forced to choose one, we strongly prefer the running back.
Behind St. Brown, Sam LaPorta stands out as a strong option this week and one of our favorites. Goff looked to LaPorta repeatedly last week, as LaPorta caught nine of eleven targets for 65 yards. LaPorta told reporters that he found it difficult to move in the huge knee brace in the first playoff game, but he got used to it and felt a lot better last week. That bodes well for his health in this matchup. San Francisco has been stout against tight ends, allowing the fifth-lowest yards per target to the position. However, tight end DVP stats are a little flukey, as a lot of teams don’t incorporate their tight ends as much as others. Tight ends that are heavily involved in the offense have had success against San Francisco. T.J. Hockenson caught 11 balls for 86 yards against the 49ers, while Trey McBride caught ten balls for 102 yards.
Finally, we have Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams. Reynolds caught two of three targets for 27 yards and a score, while Williams caught two of four targets for 35 yards. Both have been risky plays, and Reynolds will likely get more looks against Charvarius Ward which is a bad matchup. Justin prefers Reynolds, but Matt still prefers Williams. Matt thinks Williams is more talented, and despite Reynolds “appearing” to have more touchdown equity, the touchdowns are four to three in favor of Reynolds when both of them play, and they have identical anytime touchdown odds. That said, Justin think Reynolds played much of the season limited due to injury, and has seen 7+ targets in his games lately now that he’s healthier. Reynolds has also blown out Williams in expected fantasy points this postseason, and Justin thinks Goff may struggle to throw the deep ball in this matchup, which could hurt Williams.
All in all we think this is a really fun slate with a lot of unique plays that we like a lot. We think fading all three of the KC studs will be a very unique way to build, and that allows us to comfortably lock in Jackson and Purdy as the only QBs we’re willing to use.