After six grueling months of treelined parkland golf as the PGA Tour traversed across the United States, we finally head across the pond for some links golf. This year’s Scottish Open features a rather elevated field with a lot of the top pros making the trip early to acclimate to the conditions with the year’s final major looming next week. Playing this week are six of the top ten in the OWGR and 48 of the top 70 in the FedEx Cup, with the rest either taking the week off or staying stateside for the ISCO Championship in Kentucky. Tom Doak’s Renaissance Club has hosted this event every year since 2019, and while not the most flashy nor difficult links test, it features all the typical tropes of firm and fast fairways, penalizing pot bunkers, and subtle but slower greens. Fairway bunkering will serve as the course’s biggest defense in terms of the layout, but with the ever present increase in distance, they should be no problem for the quality of this field. The only defense that is left is wind. If the wind is up, things could get interesting. However the weather at this point looks fairly benign so we should be in for a fair share of birdies.
It is no surprise that one of the top plays this week at the Genesis Scottish Open is Rory McIlroy. He already has a great season under his belt with a Masters victory, a T7 finish at the PGA Championship, a T12 at the Memorial, and a T32 at the U.S. Open. Along with his strong recent form, Rory brings elite course history to The Renaissance Club, winning here in 2023 before following it up with a 4th-place finish in 2024 and a runner-up finish last year. Statistically, Rory checks every box for success this week. He ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee over the last 24 rounds, while also ranking 10th in Proximity from 200+ yards and 14th in Three-Putt Avoidance. His combination of elite driving and long-iron play should create plenty of birdie opportunities on a course that rewards players who consistently put themselves in position off the tee. If the wind picks up, we’re not overly concerned, as Rory’s extensive links experience should allow him to handle the conditions better than the majority of the field. Everything points to another strong performance, and it would not be surprising to see him add a second Genesis Scottish Open title before turning his attention to The Open Championship next week.
Also from the top of the board, Ludvig Aberg stands out as a great option among this star studded field. It is no secret that Ludvig has had a rather underwhelming season compared to the high expectations of a true breakthrough season. That sounds really silly to say when you are talking about a guy who went on a run of five top-five finishes in seven events spanning from API to the PGA Championship, which includes a near miss win due to a lackluster final round performance at The Players. With that being said, Ludvig has been top of the field in both off the tee and approach in every single event he has teed it up this year with the lone exceptions being at a club down track in TPC River Highlands and an absolute abomination of a performance at The Farmers. Amongst the field, he ranks 6th in total strikes gained as he is 5th tee to green and 6th in ball striking. His putter is not bad by any means but can be a liability at times. On flat slower fescue greens it’s not something we are too worried about this week. With a T4 finish here in 2024 and a T8 last year, this looks to be a nice break out spot for the young Swede.
Just a touch down the board sits a LIV boy sneaking his way through the red tape into a PGA Tour/DP World course sanctioned event in Tyrell Hatton. Hatton is an absolute “links master” with a T24 and T6 here in ’22 and ’23, as well as sporting an 6/9 made cut record in his last nine Open Championship appearances. Not to mention, he has won the Alfred Dunhill Links three times dating back to 2016 with three top five to accompany his wins. Hatton has been hot and cold through the ’26 LIV season, with high highs and low lows, but what is encouraging is how hes rounding into top form. With a win at Andalucia and an impressive T7 finish at Shinnicock through June, Hatton looks to be rounding into top summer form. He’s also a very good play in One & Done since this one of just five times you can use him all year.
Next up in the mid-tier is Kurt Kitayama, who has been one of the best ball strikers on Tour this season and enters the week in excellent form. He has also found success at the Genesis Scottish Open, finishing runner-up in 2022 before adding finishes of 54th in 2023 and 34th in 2024. Kitayama’s recent stats fits this course well, ranking 15th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 41st in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 24 rounds. While the putter has been inconsistent at times, his elite tee-to-green game gives him plenty of scoring opportunities. If he can have even an average week on the greens, he possesses the upside to contend and easily exceed value at his price point, making him one of our favorite mid-tier tournament options.
In the middle of the pack, Marco Penge looks to make a triumphant return to the DP World Tour after earning his promotion to the PGA Tour last season. To put it frankly, his 2026 campaign has been anything but fruitful, but it looks like he has finally made a turn. To this point, Penge has little to nothing to show for his golf aside from a measly T4 at the Valspar, but about a month ago he did disclose that he was dealing with both an injury and an illness through the early months of the season which seems to have led to his poor play. Not to mention the move from Europe to the U.S, which routinely throws guys off kilter each year making the transition to the big Tour. However, we finally saw signs of life out of Penge with a 2025-like performance last week in Germany at the BMW International with a T9 finish. This is more of a pedigree play than anything, but with a T2 finish here at the Scottish last year, its encouraging to see him get his mojo back just before teeing it up at a place we know fits his eye. He has more upside than most guys in his range.
In the value tier, we turn to Jordan Smith, another player whose game fits The Renaissance Club well. Smith ranks 30th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 38th in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 24 rounds, giving him a solid statistical profile for this week’s test. Although he missed the cut in his most recent start, Smith was playing well prior to that, posting a T13 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a T59 at the CJ Cup. He also has an impressive track record at the Genesis Scottish Open, making the cut in three of his four appearances with finishes of 24th, 12th, and 22nd. As a European Tour veteran, Smith is very comfortable on links-style courses and has plenty of experience playing in windy conditions. That combination of course fit, experience, and ball-striking upside makes him an excellent value option with the potential to outperform his price tag. He pairs well with the elite names at the top of the board and has the upside to be a key piece of your lineups this week.
Towards the bottom of the board, a name of the past is having a career that is aging like fine wine, and that’s Padraig Harrington. There’s no doubt that Harrington’s best years are behind him, but if there is one “old” who has not let the young guys pass him by when it comes to distance, it’s him. Paddy still hits the ball a mile and is fresh off a win at the US Senior Open last week. But he didn’t just win, he won by four on as tough and demanding a course as they make for the olds. By no means are we saying Harrington is going to win this week, but for an Irishman on a heater, what better way to keep it going than to roll them out on a firm fast links course? He should be low owned and presents sneaky upside.
For One & Done, Hatton is our favorite option with Rahm and Reed also pretty solid choices given that next week is the last chance to use any of them. They will all likely be popular since we’re all in the same boat here towards the end of the season with few studs remaining, except these guys. I wouldn’t waste your last top-tier PGA TOUR guy since you will want them for the playoff events, but if you have saved too many studs or are competing for a segment prize, then you could use a low owned Rory or Aberg here. My ideal choice is Hatton despite having some ownership.