Optimal: Finau, Hojgaard, Thompson, Stevens, Hubbard, Ghim, S. Kim
GPP: Grillo, Vegas, Jaeger, Pendrith, Norrman, D. Wu, Bramlett, Lower, Tarren (DK punt)
The clear optimal guy in the field is going to be Tony Finau at the top of the pricing. He is the heavy Vegas favorite to win this event, even factoring in his struggles on the green. Tony loves this course, racking up a win and runner up result in the two years of this tourney. He was telling people last week that this is his favorite course and he expects to win every time. He comes in ranked top-10 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach, Driving Distance, Opportunities Gained, Proximity from 200+ yards, and Greens in Regulation Gained. While you could risk fading him in deeper GPP or multi-entry formats, we would be hard pressed to justify that. Tony is the most optimal play on the slate and we think you should just lock him in and differentiate elsewhere.
The next guy at the top end of pricing that we love targeting is Taylor Pendrith, who grades very well in our models. He comes in ranked top-10 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach and Ball Striking, along with Driving Distance. He is also top-20 in Strokes Gained OTT and Greens in Regulation Gained. At a course with little to no penalty for taking driver and bombing away, we believe Pendrith has a great shot to find himself in contention.
In the mid-tier, Davis Thompson grades out really well for us this week. He comes in ranked top-10 in Strokes Gained Approach and Ball Striking along with Proximity from 200+ yards and Greens in Regulation Gained. The issue Thompson usually faces is penalty when he gets wayward off the tee, but this will not be a problem at Vidanta this week. He should benefit greatly from limited penalty risk OTT, making this a great spot for Thompson to find himself in the mix of this tournament.
A cheaper guy who should be contrarian on this slate would be Jhonattan Vegas, who comes in ranked top-5 amongst the field in Strokes Gained OTT, Opportunities Gained, Ball Striking, Driving Distance, and Greens in Regulation Gained. He also comes in top-20 in Strokes Gained APP. If Vegas can find anything with the flat stick this week, he is poised to contend at what we would consider to be an ideal course fit. He doesn’t project super well in models or in Vegas odds, so he should fly under the radar.
Looking at the best PT/$ value options to plug into your lineups, the clear top option in our projections and model is Sam Stevens. He ranks top-20 in Strokes Gained OTT and ARG, along with Driving Distance and Proximity from 200+ yards. We love him across both sites. The next best value options include Joseph Bramelett, S. Kim, Dylan Wu, and Justin Lower. On DraftKings, there is one deep punt play that graded well both in our stats model and projections: Callum Tarren. He is risky, but at his price tag he opens up a ton of flexibility in roster construction, making him an appealing punt play on DK.
I do want to mention that this is a good week to try and be unique because many of these golfers have weaker statistical profiles, meaning that most people aren’t going to be as successful predicting their performance. Don’t be afraid to pivot off some of the optimal plays in GPPs and dip a bit lower in the PT/$ projections. Most people will be eating the chalk here because they don’t even know who the golfers are that they’d be pivoting to, and that can be uncomfortable. I think it’s a great week to be punting with a guy like Lower or Tarren and making some wonky builds. Personally, I’m thinking most high stakes players start with Finau and Hojgaard or Mitchell. I’m not willing to fade Finau, so in GPPs I’m going to use Pendrith as my second stud as I don’t think many high stakes players will go there.
One and Done:
This week is actually quite simple for us in OaD given the horrendous field strength. We would not overthink this and would just plug in Tony Finau and move on. There is no real reason to dip anywhere below him in this field unless you are solely worried about ownership. He is not going to be anywhere near these odds to finish top-5, let alone win, the rest of the season. He also absolutely loves this course and has finished 2nd and 1st in his two appearances here. While he may not be in his peak form, we don’t believe this matters on this course against the worst field we will see all season. There is not a real reason to save Tony for down the road, either, as he is not one of the top players you would use in a signature event, nor is he going to have these odds to bank in close to $1M for you in any non-signature event. People tend to get too cute for their own good in OaD formats, showcased by last year Tony and Rahm did not even combine for half of the ownership in this field. We would not expect him to get over 35% owned, and believe that it is not worth straying away from him here. If you already used Finau or insist on being unique, Pendrith would be our next pivot.