Pitching: Kirby (SP1), Rodon (SP2), Gore (#1 GPP), Peralta (#2 GPP), Severino (Value/leverage GPP)
Hitting: SFG (Cash chalk), TOR (#1 GPP), MIL (#2 GPP), DET (#3 GPP), NYM (GPP leverage)
Weather: All clear!
Chalk Fades: Wheeler, Meyer, SFG in GPPs
With so many pitchers on this massive slate, we have to take some stands. When looking at the top 7 projected pitching scores, we see they are all projected about 15-30% owned. Two guys really stand out as not being worth paying for, and those two are Zack Wheeler and Max Meyer. Wheeler has pitched well this season, but the Dodgers lineup is simply too good to pay up and eat chalk against. Tonight’s projected lineup collectively holds a .213 ISO and .362 wOBA with just a 19% K rate and an elite walk rate of 11.3%. If Wheeler has his absolute best stuff he can get anyone out, but this is just too bad of a matchup considering how well the Dodgers grind out ABs and wear down opposing pitchers. Then we have Max Meyer, who seems like an ideal GPP play given his boom/bust nature, but with so many other options and a mediocre PT/$, we just don’t think he’s worth taking here. The Mets have had a very disappointing season so far, but they actually don’t strikeout all that much, and some of them are really good at drawing walks and extending at-bats. They project decently well for a team facing a 10K pitcher, and a deeper dive reveals why. Mayer gets a lot of whiffs so he’s earned his high K rates, but he also gives up a lot of hard contact that he hasn’t really paid the price for yet. The Mets have some guys that matchup well here, and one guy in particular has been hitting the ball very hard and not getting rewarded. That guy is A.J. Ewing, and we think he’s due for a breakout game. Alongside him we like Benge and Vientos quite a bit, and Semien and Soto are viable to round out this contrarian stack.
Your first optimal pitching option is Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby. Kirby projects for the highest raw total on the slate, and with a price below $9K on DraftKings, he carries one of the better point/$ marks as well. On FanDuel, he is more of a GPP option, where he is a bit more priced up. Kirby’s K rates are down from a year ago, as he is only getting LHH at a 17% rate and RHH at a 22% clip. That said, his xStats are solid, holding LHH to a line of .118/.299, with RHH slashing .126/.285. This should allow him to collect outs and go deep into this game, solidifying his floor for cash contests. With the K rates down, he has not really flashed the ceiling we like to see for GPPs, so we are fine avoiding him there, especially given the ownership that he will carry.
Your optimal pairing option with Kirby is New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. Rodon is making his 4th start of the season after he started the season on the IL. With each start, Rodon has shown steady improvement and has gone deeper into the game each time out. He was allowed 95 pitches in his most recent start, so there is no pitch count concern here; he should be a full go at this point. What makes him optimal is his discounted price on both sites, as he is just $7.7K on DraftKings and $8.2K on FanDuel, making him one of the better point/$ options on both sites. Through a small 2026 sample, the xStats are solid, and we are seeing some nice reverse splits from Rodon, as he is striking out RHH at a very impressive 32% clip while holding them to a line of .016/.255. While we cannot expect that level of dominance to continue against RHH, a year ago he held them to a very solid .146/.288 line while striking them out at a respectable 25% rate. The small sample does have his left-on-left K rate down quite a bit at just 18%, but we can expect that number to rise closer to the nearly 30% rate from a year ago in a much larger sample. The matchup is not the easiest, as he is facing the Athletics in Sutter Health Park, but the weather there seems to be neutralizing offense a little bit, and their implied total is more toward the middle of the pack as opposed to toward the top, like we have been accustomed to seeing when they are at home this season. The discounted price makes Rodon a very solid cash play, but he does have the ability to rack up the Ks and put up a ceiling score, making him viable in GPPs as well. He’s overall the best pitcher tonight when you consider all the factors.
Your top GPP option tonight is Texas Rangers right-hander MacKenzie Gore. The Gore experience has been a bit of a roller coaster so far this season, and many are likely still left with a sour taste in their mouth from when he was removed after just one mediocre inning with lat tightness just two starts ago. That injury did not end up being significant, however, as Gore made his next scheduled start and was fantastic, holding the Angels to just 1 run on 1 hit while striking out 7 across 6 strong innings and earning the quality start. Gore is another guy who is flashing some reverse splits, with a very solid 28% K rate against RHH while holding them to a line of just .150/.296. LHH have been a little bit of a struggle for him, allowing them a line of .188/.352 and striking them out 21% of the time. The good news for Gore is that the Royals are projected to send 8 RHH to the plate this evening, and while the top half have below-league-average K rates against LHP, 3 of the bottom 4 are doing it 25% of the time or more this season. The 4th of that group will likely be Tyler Tolbert, who struck out 21 times in 86 plate appearances (24%) at AAA this season. Gore will carry some ownership, but is still a tick below some of the optimal guys listed and has the upside we like out of a GPP pivot.
Another GPP pitching option we like tonight is New York Mets right-hander Freddy Peralta. Peralta looks to be neck and neck with another option we considered this evening, Shota Imanaga, but ultimately we sided with the balance and floor that Peralta provides while also having the potential for a ceiling game in this matchup. Peralta has been steady against batters from both sides of the plate, striking them both out around 24% of the time and holding them to xISOs below .150 and xwOBAs below .305. In terms of the matchup, this is actually the second time in as many starts that he will face the Marlins, a team he fanned 9 times just a week ago. They did rack up 4 runs on 8 hits against him, including two long balls from Liam Hicks, but the strikeouts kept his score respectable. If he can keep them in the park this time around, we see a path to another high-strikeout outing and a ceiling performance.
The final GPP option looks like a nice value piece and a decent leverage option, as Luis Severino takes on the New York Yankees. Severino grades out as one of the top point/$ options, but the matchup and venue tonight have his ownership in the single digits. We already mentioned the weather conditions neutralizing Sutter Health Park a bit this evening, and as we dug into the matchup, we started to like Sevy more and more. Severino has quietly put together a pretty decent campaign thus far, and the xStats back that up, especially over the last 30 days, as he is holding LHH to a line of .142/.289, with RHH slashing just .126/.269. Overall, the K rates have been solid, getting batters from both sides around 24% of the time. The matchup is obviously a daunting one against the Yankees, but they do strike out quite a bit and will send 4 batters to the plate this evening who are doing it more than 26% of the time this year against RHP. All in all, the ceiling that Sevy has flashed this season could be a GPP winner this evening at his dirt-cheap price and very low ownership.
Moving on to the bats, we have to mention the San Francisco Giants against Michael Lorenzen as the obvious chalk/cash stack this evening. The Giants carry the highest implied total on the slate and there is no secret why given the venue and the matchup as Lorenzen has been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball this season, especially against LHH who are slashing .284/.445 off of him. RHH on the other hand, he has held in check a bit, and if anything has been unlucky against them as the xStats are actually quite solid with a line against of .086/.308. In terms of projections, Bryce Eldridge, Willy Adames, Harrison Bader, and Matt Chapman stand out the most. That said, Casey Schmitt (.256/.358) and Rafael Devers (xISO .203) are the only two Giants hitters with notable xStats against RHP this season. In addition, we are seeing some pretty strong winds blowing directly in at Coors Field tonight around 15-20mph. Between the weak xStats from the Giants and the wind neutralizing the Coors altitude a bit, this is a spot we really like fading in GPPs tonight. In cash games, it’s pretty boring today as you just have to trust the projections and load up on Giants and then use top projecting one-offs.
One of our favorite GPP options tonight is the Toronto Blue Jays in a matchup with Baltimore Orioles left hander Trevor Rogers. Rogers has been on a serious skid of late as he has now allowed 4 or more ER in 5 of his last 6 starts. Over that span, RHH have crushed him with a line of .247/.428 and he is striking them out just 7% of the time, generating very little swing and miss. Rogers throws a lot of fastballs to RHH, doing it 43% of the time and allowing a line of .367/.358 against it. George Springer (.268/.385), Vlad Guerrero Jr (.322/.499), and Ernie Clement (.214/.353) all hit from the right side and had very solid numbers against lefty fastballs a season ago. Myles Straw (.273/.413) and Kazuma Okamoto (.335/.464) will hit from the right side and have solid numbers against the pitch in a small sample this season.
Another GPP option we like tonight are the Milwaukee Brewers in a matchup with Houston Astros right hander Kai-Wei Teng. Teng is coming off two monster starts, but will likely come back down to earth this evening in a tough matchup with the Brew Crew. Teng has been solid against RHH this season, so it is the LHH of the Brewers we want to focus on tonight as he is allowing them an xwOBA of .349, and a line of .201/.355 against his fastball which he throws 30% of the time to them. Christian Yelich (.258/.387), Brice Turang (xwOBA .374), Jake Bauers (.274/.379), and Garrett Mitchell (.248/.351) all will hit from the left side and have very solid numbers against righty fastballs both last year, and in the the first few months of this season. Sal Frelick and David Hamilton also hit from the left side and bring some stolen base upside at the bottom of the order. Finally, Jackson Chourio should always be considered when stacking the Brewers no matter the matchup. He also has very solid right on right numbers this year boasting a line of .287/.330.
The final team to consider in GPPs tonight are the Detroit Tigers in a matchup with White Sox right hander Erick Fedde. Fedde is allowing RHH a line of .217/.340 this season and while a .164/.341 line against LHH does not exactly jump off the page, over a much larger sample in 2025 he was tattooed by them to the tune of .208/.391. There are also a number of dangerous LHH in this Tigers lineup who’d like to pump up this ‘26 numbers this evening as Kevin McGonigle (.224/.383), Riley Greene (.237/.373), Colt Keith (.201/.352), and Gage Workman (.289/.315) will all hit from the left side with very solid numbers against RHP in the early going this season, or over a large sample last season. Dillon Dingler (.279/.415) and Spencer Torkelson (.206/.318) have solid right on right numbers this year and should continue to take advantage of Fedde’s struggles against RHH this year.