Pitching: Ray (#1 Optimal), Peterson (#2 Optimal), Bubic (#1 GPP), Leiter (#2 GPP), Freeland (#3 deep GPP)
Hitting: NYM (#1 optimal), TEX (#1 GPP), HOU (#2 GPP), TBR mini (#3 GPP)
Bad Chalk: SFG bats
Weather: Should be all clear. Slight risk in TEX/MIN, but should be fine.
We can start with the pitching and how we should attack it tonight. There are two very chalky arms both projecting for ownership in the 40–50% range, but after that it is pretty spread out amongst the rest. The first of those two arms is San Francisco Giants left-hander Robbie Ray. It is not often that the chalkiest pitcher is pitching in Coors Field, but the Rockies are that bad and on a small slate it is hard to argue against. While the conditions in Coors Field will favor the hitters, that has not meant much for this putrid Rockies lineup who are still bottom third in the league in runs scored at home and they strike out more than just about anyone in the league. Ray has been phenomenal this season and is on an 8-start stretch scoring 20 or more points on DK and 4 straight scoring 25 or more. He has been vintage Ray, striking out LHH 26% of the time while getting RHH at a 29% clip. He is holding batters from both sides of the plate to xISOs below .140 and xwOBAs below .280. Simply put, he has been elite and now gets to face one of the worst lineups in the history of the sport. While we rarely like to tout mega chalk, if there were ever a time to eat it, it would be tonight. Between what Ray has done this season, the matchup, and the other options on a small slate, it is hard to see him not come in as optimal. Obviously, there is always merit to fading such a highly owned arm in GPPs, but we would suggest just locking him in and trying to get different elsewhere.
That brings us to our next chalk arm as David Peterson will get the ball for the New York Mets tonight against the Washington Nationals. Peterson looks good tonight, but nowhere close to as good as Ray looks, and if there were a chalky arm to pivot off of, we would suggest it be this one. Peterson has been consistent, scoring 15 or more points on DK in 6 straight starts, but over that span he has only topped 20 twice and has only done it 3 times this season. That gives us some cause for concern in GPP contests because we really do not see a strong chance at a ceiling outcome for Peterson tonight. He is a fine cash play, but in GPPs we feel safe fading him knowing that if he just goes out and produces his mean score it will still be very beatable. Peterson has strikeout rates of 30% to LHH and 19% to RHH. He has been elite against LHH, which is important against this Nationals lineup, holding them to a line of .058/.230. RHH have had a bit more success, especially against his fastball, as they have hit it hard to the tune of .259/.435. Overall, Peterson should get you what you need in cash, but at ownership close to 50% we’re not sure we want to buy into that in GPPs.
Speaking of GPPs, our top GPP arm tonight is quietly putting together a Cy Young campaign of a season as he carries a 1.55 ERA coming into tonight through 12 starts. That would be Kansas City Royals left-hander Kris Bubic. Bubic is on an absolute tear with 5 straight starts scoring 25 or more points on DK. Over that span he has pitched 7 or more innings in 4 of the 5 and has struck out at least 7 in 4 of the 5 as well, including 3 performances with 9 Ks. He has very strong K rates to both sides, getting LHH 24% of the time and RHH at 28%. He does have some reverse splits going for him, but against a Yankees lineup with dangerous RHH, that is not necessarily a bad thing. He has held RHH to a line of just .102/.254 and does not have an xwOBA above .285 against any of his 3 primary pitches. The Yankees will be a tough test for Bubic, but we think he is up for the task. They are also a team that can strike out in bunches as they rank bottom third in the league in that category. Overall, there is definitely some risk here as Bubic is not cheap and is in a pretty tough matchup, but we love his upside in GPPs and think he is a great pivot off the chalkier options.
Our next GPP arm should provide you with some salary relief as Jack Leiter takes the ball for the Texas Rangers in a matchup with the Minnesota Twins. Leiter is coming off two very solid starts, scoring 18 and 25 points on DK in the two contests. In those starts he allowed 1 ER or fewer and struck out 6 in both. On the season, his strikeout rates aren’t jumping off the page, but still respectable, especially given his cheaper price tag, as he is getting LHH 21% of the time and RHH at an 18% clip. His overall X stats to batters from both sides are far from elite, but he is still holding batters below xISOs of .200 and xwOBAs below .350. Something we do like to see is his most-thrown pitch to both batters has been one of his better pitches, and if he leans on that a bit more, he should continue to find success. Tonight he faces a Twins lineup that is pretty middle of the road in terms of strikeouts, but one that has a number of guys that struggle against his primary pitch mix to their respective sides. All in all, we like Leiter as an under-the-radar GPP option with great upside for his price tag.
Our final GPP option is not for the faint of heart as Kyle Freeland is set to take the ball for the Rockies against the uber chalk San Francisco Giants in Coors Field. Freeland jumps to the top of our point/$ rankings on DK due to his dirt cheap $5k price tag. In his last two starts, he pitched 6 or more innings in both, striking out 4 in each contest. That gave him scores of 23 and 11, both numbers that we would happily take for a pitcher priced at just $5k. It is worth noting that this is a DK-only play as it is rare that completely punting at pitcher is the move over on FD. Freeland comes into this one with strikeout rates of 21% to LHH and 16% to RHH. He has actually been very solid against lefties, allowing them an xISO of just .146. RHH have had a bit more success, but he is still holding them to an xISO below .190. The other nugget that jumps out to us is that the Giants really have not been great against LHP this season. Six of the nine projected starts tonight have xISOs below .130 and only Willy Adames has an xISO above .200. The Giants are also bottom third in the league in terms of how much they strike out and have done it close to 10 times per game over their last 3. This is obviously a very risky play, but at the very least, we think it is enough to place the bad chalk crown on the Giants, and if you want to go one further, we think Freeland could take you to the promised land.
With the Giants getting the bad chalk tag, we will target the next best stack as our optimal stacking option tonight. That would be the New York Mets against Washington Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin. Irvin has been clobbered by LHH this season, allowing them a line of .287/.407. As a result, we love guys like Juan Soto (.325/.443), Francisco Lindor (.216/.372), Brandon Nimmo (.198/.340), and Brett Baty (xISO .235), who will all hit from the left side with very good numbers against RHP this year. Pete Alonso (.331/.440) can also be considered with great right-on-right numbers. The others that make the lineup like Ronny Mauricio, Jared Young, and Jeff McNeil make for great values to round out your stack. Given the ownership that the Giants will get, feel free to use the Mets in all formats tonight.
We will go back to the well tonight with the Texas Rangers who look to be in an elite GPP spot. For starters, they will be facing David Festa who is projecting for ownership in the 20% range. As a result, the Rangers should be very low-owned and a great option for leverage in GPPs. Festa has been clobbered by RHH since coming back, allowing them a line of .325/.451. Wyatt Langford (.206/.336), Jake Burger (xISO .229), Josh Jung (.303/.390 vs FB), and Adolis Garcia (.232/.350) should be the biggest beneficiaries of that with great right-on-right numbers this season. Festa has been better against LHH, but his most-thrown pitch to the left side is his fastball, which he is allowing a .278/.476 line against. That makes for an elite matchup for Corey Seager (.331/.470) and Evan Carter (.271/.384), who have mashed righty fastballs this year.
Next up we have the Houston Astros taking on White Sox right-hander Sean Burke. Burke has let up some pretty nasty reverse splits of his own as he has allowed RHH a line of .267/.377 this season. That could be trouble for him against an Astros lineup that can load up with RHH. Christian Walker (.201/.338), Jeremy Pena (.271/.444 vs FB), Isaac Parades (.213/.396 vs FB), Yainer Diaz (.206/.336), and Jake Meyers (xwOBA .403 vs FB) stand out the most with their numbers against righties or righty fastballs, a pitch Burke throws 33% of the time. Jose Altuve does not have the numbers this season, but is a veteran guy who has seen his price dip quite a bit and is definitely viable. Cam Smith is also very cheap and in a good matchup tonight.
Our final GPP option tonight is a mini-stack of Tampa Bay Rays LHH against Red Sox right-hander Walker Buehler. Buehler is allowing LHH an xwOBA of .360 this season and .402 over the last month. In addition, his fastball has been clobbered as he has allowed a line of .269/.410 against. As a result, we love the LHH for the Rays who have great numbers against RHP, but more importantly righty fastballs: Brandon Lowe (.353/.376), Josh Lowe (.397/.540), Jonathan Aranda (.220/.400), and Kameron Misner (.194/.345). We also won’t knock you if you wanted to round out the stack with Junior Caminero (.242/.362), who is on an absolute tear and hits RHP pitching well.
Best of luck!’s hump day and we’ve got a nice little 6-game slate on our hands here so let’s get right into it.