Pitching: Burns (SP1), Ureña (SP2), Imanaga (GPP), May (Value)
Hitting: CHC (Optimal), LAA (GPP 1), ATH (GPP 2), MIN (Leverage)
Chalk Fade: Gore
Weather: Wind blowing out in A’s, Cubs
As we head into another Monday slate, let’s break it down!
Our top pitcher for this slate is Reds ace Chase Burns, who has impressed to start the season. With a 7-1 record, he has posted at least seven strikeouts in each of his last five starts and looks to continue that dominance. Burns faces a Mets lineup that consists of six lefties, which he is allowing a .134 xISO and .271 xwOBa, while striking them out at a 32% rate. Even with his price, Burns is not someone we want to fade on this slate with the way he’s been dialed in.
The next pitcher we’ll be discussing is the Angels’ Walbert Ureña, facing an inconsistent Diamondbacks lineup. Ureña has dominated lefties, holding them to rates of .092/.277 while also holding righties to .117/.295 and striking them out at a 25% clip. The D Backs lineup has five batters striking out at over 22% against righties. Ureña is rolling right now and is in a good spot to keep that going in Arizona.
Our next pitching option on the slate is Shota Imanaga. While Imanaga had an extremely rough few starts in a row, he got back on track last week against the Rockies and now faces Colorado once again. The Rockies do not fare well against left-handed pitching, as the lineup has poor xISO and xwOBA stats and consists of six players striking out at a 22% rate or higher against left-handed pitchers.
We will be fading a chalky MacKenzie Gore. The Rangers’ left-handed pitcher faces a Twins lineup composed of seven righties and two switch hitters. While he is striking righties out at a 26% rate, Gore throws fastballs 48% of the time against right-handed hitters, and the Twins have had success against the pitch. This is a clear fade and we will also play Minnesota as a leverage stack, which will be discussed more below.
Instead, we like Dustin May against the Padres if you do need some value at pitcher. May has looked good in his last couple of starts and looks to be gaining some momentum as the season progresses. He’s posted at least six strikeouts in each of his last four games and presents an appealing case for his value. May has had more success against right-handed hitters, striking them out 24% of the time, and now faces a Padres lineup with six righties. There is obviously a risk with May, as always, but this is a good spot for him to continue building on a few solid starts in a row and is a nice value considering some of the costly arms.
Our top hitting stack comes from the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley, facing Rockies pitcher Michael Lorenzen. He has allowed rates of .247/.418 against lefties, setting up Chicago’s Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Michael Conforto up incredibly here. While he’s had more success against right-handed hitters, Lorenzen’s fastball, sweeper, and slider get hit the most by righties. Alex Bregman and Seiya Suzuki are righties with success against those pitch types and are viable here. Crow-Armstrong and Happ are our favorites.
The next hitting stack we’ll be discussing is the Los Angeles Angels. They will face Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson, who is allowing rates of .284/.376 to lefties and .213/.334 to righties. Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Wade Meckler, Jo Adell, Nolan Schanuel, and Logan O’Hoppe have had the most success against his pitch types. We like Trout and Neto the most.
Our next stack comes from the Athletics, facing Pirates pitcher Jared Jones. While the sample size is just over 13 total innings, Jones has allowed rates of .352/.482 to left-handed hitters. This sets Athletics lefties Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Carlos Cortes, Lawrence Butler, and Jeff McNeil up great. Jones has been better against righties, but that is an even smaller sample size. Shae Langeliers is viable as a righty considering his success against Jones’ pitches. Kurtz and Cortes are our favorites for the stack.
The last stack we’ll be discussing is the Twins, as part of our leverage play against Rangers pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Throwing that fastball 48% of the time against righties, Minnesota righties Byron Buxton (.431/.423), Austin Martin (.193/.417), Luke Keaschall (.248/.319), and Ryan Kreidler (.388/.423) have crushed that fastball. Lefty Kody Clemens has also had success against Gore’s pitches and is a viable play.
Good luck, everyone!