Pitching: Cease (SP1), Bradish (SP2), Brown (GPP), Kay (Value)
Hitting: BOS (Optimal), MIL (GPP 1), COL (GPP 2), LAD (GPP 3), CWS (Leverage)
Weather: All Clear
Our top pitcher for this slate is the Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease. Through eight starts, Cease is allowing a .116 xISO and .294 xwOBA with a 35% strikeout rate against lefties. His stats against righties are even more impressive, striking them out at a 38% rate and allowing numbers of just .074/.247. This sets Cease up well on Monday, as seven of Houston’s nine starters are right-handed hitters. Considering this and his hot start to the season, Cease is our top pitching option today and should not be avoided despite the chalkiness.
Your second optimal option tonight alongside Cease is Orioles pitcher Kyle Bradish who faces the Angels on Monday. Six of the Angels’ nine starting batters are right-handed batters. Williams throws sliders and sinkers a combined 80% of the time against righties. Outside of Neto, Angel righties have not hit great against his pitch types. Four of the Angels’ six righties have struck out at a 22% rate or higher against righties. Bradish is projected for high ownership, but with one of the top point/$ marks on the slate, he is a clear optimal option in cash games. In GPPs, he would be the optimal guy we would pivot off of if we were to choose between him or Cease.
Our top GPP option tonight is Hunter Brown who makes his second start since returning from IL. Brown was somewhat limited in his first start back against the Tigers last week, but he was still allowed to throw 92 pitches which was good for 5.2 innings allowing just one run on three hits while striking out seven. He gets a Blue Jays lineup that does not hit righties all that hard outside of one or two guys. Through three full starts this year, Brown is allowing just .105/.228 to lefties while striking them out at a 39% rate and .038/.236 to righties while striking them out at a 36% rate. Given that he was allowed close to the 100 pitch mark last time out we do not anticipate any limitations for him tonight. He is not the best from a point/$ standpoint as he is still one of the most expensive pitching options out there, but given his upside we love him in GPPs where ownership shows that most are shying away from that big salary.
Our last pitching option is a value play and comes from the White Sox’s left-handed arm, Anthony Kay, who faces the Guardians. While he has struggled against righties, Kay has allowed just .085/.285 to lefties and is striking them out at a 30% rate. He now faces a Cleveland lineup that consists of six batters striking out at over a 25% rate, making this a nice value spot where Kay can potentially rack up K’s. He is also the top point/$ guy, but not getting a ton of ownership his way making him a very intriguing GPP option, especially if you pair him with Brown.
The top-hitting stack comes from the Boston Red Sox as they travel to Coors to face Rockies pitcher Ryan Feltner. Their slate leading total and affordable price tags make them the clear optimal option tonight. Feltner has given up .187/.335 to lefties and .265/.394 to righties and throws a ton of fastballs and sliders to both sides of the plate. Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Mickey Gasper, Caddanne Rafaela, and Marcelo Mayer have had the most success against those pitches. Jarren Duran and Caleb Durbin are viable plays as well. The Sox will be quite chalky given their total and overall value, but we have seen how much this offense has struggled at times this year so we would approach them with caution in GPP contests. If you do eat the chalk in GPPs, we would make sure to pair them with a lesser owned pitching combo or stack.
Our next hitting stack is the Milwaukee Brewers, facing Reds pitcher Brady Singer. He has allowed .219/.357 to lefties while striking them out at a. 20% rate and .206/.385 to righties while striking them out at just a 12% rate. Singer primarily throws sinkers and sliders to both sides of the plate. Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, and Brice Turang have all crushed those pitches. Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and David Hamilton are viable as well. Chourio and Bauers are our favorites here.
The next hitting stack we’ll be discussing also comes from Coors as the Rockies face Red Sox lefty Jake Bennett. While he’s been solid against lefties on a small sample size, Bennett is allowing .170/.305 to righties with just a 14% strikeout rate. He primarily throws fastballs, changeups, and sinkers. Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfield, Ezequiel Tovar, Cole Carrigg, Jake McCarthy, and Kyle Karros have the most success against those pitches and are all viable for the stack.
The Dodgers face Twins righty Zebby Matthews, who’s allowing .186/.317 to lefties and .183/.289 to righties. Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, and Dalton Rushing have the most success against righties and Matthew’s pitches. Ryan Ward and Kyle Tucker are viable plays as well.
Our last hitting stack we’ll be discussing is a leverage play against Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams, as he faces the White Sox and projects as one of the top three highest-owned pitchers on the slate. Williams is allowing .228/.331 to lefties this season. This sets up White Sox lefties Sam Antonacci, Andrew Benintendi, Colston Montgomery, and Tristan Peters best. Williams has also given up .176/.337 to righties. Miguel Vargas, Braden Montgomery, and Drew Romo are viable as well. Montgomery and Benintendi are our favorites for the stack.
Good luck, everyone!