Pitching: Rogers (SP1), Drohan (SP2), Meyer (#1 GPP), Dobnack (GPP Value, leverage)
Hitting: KC (Optimal), BAL (GPP 1), STL (GPP 2), ATL (Deep GPP)
Chalk Fades: SD Chalk
Weather: BOS/TBR possible delay, check back for updates
With two games being removed from the slate, the two highest-owned pitchers came off the board, leaving a wasteland at the position. We expect ownership to be fairly spread out, and when that is the case, we prefer to trust the projections.
Following that strategy, Trevor Rogers becomes our favorite option with the best point-per-dollar projection. Rogers has had his ups and downs this season but has settled in nicely of late. He has been lights out against left-handed hitters, neutralizing the Astros’ biggest threat in Yordan Alvarez. While he has not been quite as effective against right-handed hitters, he has still held them to an xISO below .160 over that stretch while posting an 18% strikeout rate. The strikeout upside may not be elite, but it is more than adequate in this matchup given the lack of impact right-handed bats in Houston’s lineup.The Astros are expected to send eight right-handed hitters to the plate today, but only two of their regulars carry an xISO above .170. That lack of right-handed power should allow Rogers to limit damage, even if he does not rack up a huge strikeout total. Considering his combination of salary, projection, and the weakness of the pitching pool after the postponements, Rogers stands out as our top optimal arm on the slate.
After Rogers, we have Shane Drohan in a favorable matchup against the Miami Marlins. Drohan does not possess elite strikeout upside, but his strikeout rates of 23% against right-handed hitters and 21% against left-handed hitters are more than serviceable. On top of that, he has held both sides of the plate to xISOs below .135 and xwOBAs under .300, giving him one of the steadier profiles on the slate. The Marlins lineup can be pesky, but there is plenty of swing-and-miss in the bottom half of the order that Drohan is more than capable of taking advantage of. Overall, he offers a high floor with enough upside for his price tag. We expect him to draw a healthy amount of ownership, but given how thin the pitching options are today, we are comfortable eating that chalk in all contest formats.
Our favorite GPP option this afternoon is Miami Marlins right-hander Max Meyer. Meyer projects a tick behind the top options in terms of point-per-dollar value, but his strikeout upside makes him an excellent tournament play. While the matchup against the Brewers looks difficult on paper, it actually plays to Meyer’s strengths and gives him legitimate ceiling potential. Meyer has displayed significant reverse splits this season, holding left-handed hitters to a .118 xISO and .286 xwOBA while striking them out at an elite 30% clip. Milwaukee’s primary offensive threats hit from the left side, and any platoon bats or switch hitters will also bat left-handed against him. In addition, five projected Brewers starters own strikeout rates of at least 23% or more against right-handed pitching, creating plenty of upside if Meyer has his best stuff. The matchup carries more risk than the safer cash-game options, making him difficult to trust in that format, but the combination of strikeout upside and likely lower ownership makes him one of our favorite tournament plays on the slate.
The final option is certainly a risky one, but given the lack of quality pitching on this slate, it is the perfect time to take a shot on a minimum-priced arm. This is strictly a DraftKings play, as punting pitcher on FanDuel is rarely the optimal strategy. Randy Dobnak gets the ball for the Kansas City Royals in a matchup against the chalky San Diego Padres. At just $4,000 on DraftKings, Dobnak is priced at the stone-cold minimum and allows you to fit virtually any bats you want into your lineup. Dobnak has primarily worked out of the bullpen this season, but he turned in an impressive bulk relief appearance just before the All-Star break, earning the opportunity to make this start. He is by no means a strikeout pitcher, so the ceiling is limited, but he does possess one of the highest ground-ball rates in baseball. That is particularly important today, as much of the Padres’ lofty implied total is driven by the hitter-friendly weather conditions at Kauffman Stadium. If Dobnak is consistently keeping the ball on the ground, those conditions become much less of a factor. Overall, this is not a spot where we are chasing 30-plus DraftKings points. However, on a slate that may not produce many big pitching performances, 10-12 points from a $4,000 pitcher could be more than enough to justify the salary and unlock an elite offense.
The optimal stack of this slate are the Kansas City Royals who take on Griffin Canning. His fastball gets destroyed by LHH so that is where we want to begin. Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Isaac Collins have had success against that pitch this year. The other LHH such as Michael Massey and Carter Jensen are viable due to Canning’s struggles against lefties in general. The fastball is a pitch Canning throws the 2nd most to RHH which lets us end off this stack with Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Loftin as the RHH in play. Our favorite options areCaglianone and Witt Jr.
The Baltimore Orioles make our list next as they take on Spencer Arrighetti. The fastball is Arrighetti’s primary pitch and it has been obliterated by both sides of the plate. Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, Pete Alonso, and Taylor Ward have had success against the fastball this year. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are also in play as lefties in this lineup considering Arrighetti also struggles against LHH in general. Our favorite options are Basallo and Holliday.
The next stack on our radar is the St. Louis Cardinals who take on Brandon Pfaadt. He struggles with lefties in general and gives up damage to RHH with his fastball. First of all, Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages are the righties that have had success against the fastball and Jordan Walker is viable due to his success against RHP. In terms of LHH, Lars Nootbar, JJ Wetherholt, and Alec Burleson have had success against RHP this year. Lastly, Nathan Church is a viable value to round out this stack due to Pfadt’s struggles against LHH in general. Our favorite options are Nootbar and Walker.
The last stack we want to target is the Atlanta Braves who take on Mackenzie Gore. The problem for Gore is that he has had his struggles against lefties and his cutter gets hit hard by RHH. Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson are viable due to their success against LHP this year. Eli White and Mauricio Dubon have had success against the cutter this year which puts them in play. The X stats don’t support them but Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Austin Riley have been in good form which puts them in play. Lastly, Joey Bart and Jim Jarvis are viable values to help you round out this stack. Our favorite options are Baldwin and White.