Pitching: Peterson (SP1), Castillo (SP2), Liberatore (GPP 1), Valdez (GPP 2), Sproat (GPP 3)
Hitting: Coors (optimal), ARI (GPP 1), ATH (GPP 2), SFG (value)
Chalk Fades: Burns. Castillo and Peterson in GPPs.
Weather:
-NYY/PIT PPD
-BOS/BAL delay likely, PPD possible. Best to avoid
We’ve got another big 12-game slate tonight, so let’s get right into it. First, we have a more traditional Coors Field slate, with both Colorado and Washington projecting nearly a run higher than the rest of the field at around 6.5 implied runs each. That said, the tier behind them is tightly packed, with 12 teams carrying implied totals between 4.5 and 5.5 runs. That creates a great opportunity to find high-upside, low-owned secondary stacks and GPP pivots.
Before we get into our favorite plays, we do want to address Chase Burns who is more or less in a league of his own in terms of raw point projection, but due to his extremely high price tag his point/$ mark is much lower than we would like it to be. As a result, he will not be megachalk, but could still push for 20-25% ownership. He really has not flashed the upside needed for his price in quite some time. We also saw a number of pitchers get lifted somewhat early last night because of an extended layoff with the all star break. While we do not have any news that indicates this will be the case, Burns did opt out of pitching in the ASG because of groin tightness and the Reds are sure to be extra careful with their young ace fresh off a big contract extension. Overall, it is just a spot we would avoid this evening.
Starting with the pitching, there are not many true ace-level options available outside of the aforementioned Burns. The good news is that the best point-per-dollar plays are the cheaper pitchers, making it much easier to pay up for Coors bats. We are also not seeing one clear standout arm, which should help keep ownership fairly spread out. While many builds will likely feature two value pitchers alongside a Coors stack, those value arms are far from locks, giving us an opportunity to pivot to lower-owned options that project similarly.
At the moment, the optimal build appears to feature Luis Castillo and David Peterson paired with a mix of Nationals, Rockies, and Giants bats. For cash games, this is likely the route to take. Peterson is just $5,500 and leads the slate in point-per-dollar projection. He is far from a flashy play, but in cash games you simply need him to reach his projection of around 12 points, something he is certainly capable of doing. For GPPs, however, the outlook is much different. While Peterson helps you fit in the expensive bats, he offers very little upside, even at his discounted salary. He has scored 15 or fewer DraftKings points in each of his last eight starts. The matchup also limits his ceiling, as his strikeout rate is heavily driven by his 28% mark against left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, that number drops to just 13%, and over the last 30 days it has fallen even further to only 8%. The Tigers employ one of the most platoon-heavy lineups in baseball, and tonight should be no different, with seven right-handed hitters projected to start. While we recommend fading Peterson in GPPs, that does not necessarily mean we love the Tigers as leverage. Peterson’s underlying xStats are actually quite solid, and the wind in Wrigley has shifted to become much more pitcher-friendly this evening. He should still be able to work efficiently and provide the stable floor we want in cash games, we just do not expect the strikeout upside needed to win tournaments.
Moving on to Castillo, he is leading the slate in projected ownership and could approach the 30–40% range. Woof. This feels like a spot where name value and a cheap price tag are going to suck people in, despite the reality that Castillo is nowhere close to the pitcher he once was. It is hard to justify eating that much ownership for him on a slate this large, even at just $7,600. Again, for cash games he is probably part of the optimal construction, but in GPPs we would steer clear. Looking through his recent game logs, it is difficult to see much slate-breaking upside, and more often than not he has slightly underperformed his already discounted salary. He does match up well against the four to five right-handed hitters he is expected to face, striking them out 25% of the time while holding them to a .113/.306 line. The left-handed hitters are where the concerns begin, as he has allowed them to slash .216/.344 this season. We think this is a great spot for a mini leverage stack. Elly De La Cruz (.208/.370) and JJ Bleday (.214/.380) both crush right-handed pitching, while TJ Friedl will also hit from the left side and has all three of his home runs against right-handed pitching this season. All three also bring stolen base upside against Cal Raleigh, who ranks near the bottom of the league in caught-stealing metrics.
One GPP pivot we like is Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore against the strikeout-happy Angels. Liberatore was once a highly touted prospect and is still trying to find his way in the league, but he has shown some flashes recently of why scouts were so high on him. In two of his last three starts heading into the break, Liberatore scored at least 26 DraftKings points, both times in matchups against one of the more dangerous lineups in the league, the Atlanta Braves. Tonight, he gets a much easier matchup against a team that strikes out more than any other in baseball. The Angels will likely bat eight right-handed hitters this evening, a split that Liberatore has managed well, allowing them a line of .122/.292 while striking them out at a 20% clip over the last 30 days. Liberatore has a very similar point-per-dollar projection to a guy like Castillo at a third of the ownership. He has also flashed the higher ceiling, making him a great GPP pivot.
Next up, we have Framber Valdez in a matchup with the Chicago Cubs. Valdez has had a pretty up-and-down year, but he has shown the ability to tap into a high ceiling, making him a great GPP candidate tonight. Valdez has been lights out against left-handed hitters, allowing them a line of .114/.254, which should help neutralize two of the Cubs’ biggest power threats in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch. The real question, though, is against right-handed hitters, as the Cubs will likely start seven against the southpaw. While he is only striking them out 16% of the time, he has held them to a line of just .123/.289 across his last four starts. The 16% mark is also a career worst for Valdez against right-handed hitters, so there is room for positive regression closer to the 22–23% rate he maintained for most of his career prior to this season. Overall, he is another guy with a similar point-per-dollar projection at a fraction of the ownership of the top options, making him a nice GPP play.
The final GPP option is Brewers right-hander Brandon Sproat. Sproat is a slight tick below the others in terms of point-per-dollar projection, but he is close enough to consider and carries some upside in this matchup with the Mets. Sproat is a reverse-splits guy, holding left-handed hitters to a line of just .128/.318 while striking them out at a near-elite 26% rate. The Mets are likely to send six left-handed hitters to the plate against him, including some of their biggest threats, like Lindor and Soto. Most of the Mets are around league average in strikeout rate, but three of them strike out around 25% of the time, which should help Sproat’s cause.
Moving on to the bats, Coors Field takes center stage with a matchup featuring two very lousy pitchers in Miles Mikolas (bulk reliever) and Michael Lorenzen, boosting the offense even more. Given that the matchups are equally good and Vegas has the teams virtually tied in implied total, ownership is fairly spread out between the two, and your optimal build will likely include a few hitters from each. Since just about every batter in both lineups projects well, we will outline the higher-owned guys you’ll want in cash games while also highlighting the lower-owned options that make for solid GPP pivots. This allows you to still get exposure to the highest-scoring game on the slate if you fade the chalkier bats. Starting with the Nationals, CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile, James Wood, Keibert Ruiz, Curtis Mead, and Luis Garcia are all projecting for double-digit ownership, with Abrams, Lile, and Wood leading the way at around 20%. That leaves Dylan Crews, Nasim Nuñez, and Jacob Young below 10% ownership. Ownership aside, Wood, Abrams, and Lile look like the best options based on the matchup. Eating the top-end Nationals chalk in GPPs is certainly viable; just be sure to get different elsewhere. The pitching spots, the lower-owned Nationals, and a contrarian secondary stack are all ways to accomplish that.
Moving to the Rockies, they present a more traditional full-stack leverage opportunity, with only a handful of their players projecting for double-digit ownership. The main three are Hunter Goodman, Jake McCarthy, and Mickey Moniak, all around 15–20%, with TJ Rumfield and Kyle Karros just above 10%. That leaves Ezequiel Tovar, Edouard Julien, Cole Carrigg, and Troy Johnston as the lower-owned half of the stack that could provide leverage in GPPs. Ownership aside, Goodman, Moniak, Rumfield, and Karros look like the best options.
One of our favorite GPP stacks tonight is the Arizona Diamondbacks in a matchup with Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins. Perkins has allowed three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts and runs into a tough matchup tonight. He has been hit hard by left-handed hitters this season, and that has really reared its ugly head of late, as he has allowed them to slash .225/.374 over his last handful of starts. His fastball has been hit hard by lefties all season, making Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Max Kepler, and Adrian Del Castillo stand out with strong numbers against right-handed fastballs. Ryan Waldschmidt and Tim Tawa are also in play as solid value pieces.
We stick with that same game, as the Diamondbacks will counter with rookie Kohl Drake, who will be making his major league debut against the Athletics. This appears to be more of a tryout than a hyped prospect debut, as Drake has been absolutely clobbered in Triple-A this season with an ERA close to 7. He does pitch in one of the more hitter-friendly parks in Reno, but regardless, he has not been sharp. We do not know much about Drake other than that he is a left-hander who features a fairly traditional four-pitch mix, with none of the four pitches really standing out. For the Athletics, Shea Langeliers, Josh Kuroda-Grauer, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, Jonah Heim, and Henry Bolte would be the top choices. Colby Thomas looks great as well but is almost certain to get pinch-hit for at some point in the game.
The final GPP stack tonight is a nice value option with a few pieces that are actually popping up in the optimal lineup and fit nicely as a correlated two-man cash game stack. That would be the San Francisco Giants in a matchup with Royals right-hander Luinder Avila. Avila has struggled against right-handed hitters of late, making Willy Adames, Casey Schmitt, and Heliot Ramos solid plays. He has been decent against left-handed hitters, but Bryce Eldridge and Rafael Devers have crushed right-handed pitching and are definitely viable. Finally, Grant McCray, Bryce Eldridge, and Drew Cavanaugh are the value standouts that help open things up at other spots in your lineup.
Best of luck!