Pitching: Soriano (Optimal), Suarez (GPP 1), Castillo (Value 1), Mahle (Value 2)
Hitting: LAD (#1 Optimal), TEX (#2 Optimal), CHW (#1 GPP), SEA (#2 GPP)
Weather: All Clear
Welcome to a fun Wednesday main slate of baseball as we discuss our favorite hitting stacks and pitching options.
The optimal pitcher of this slate is Jose Soriano who takes on a Boston Red Sox team that has seemed to cool off. He has strikeout rates of 22% to LHH and 27% to RHH. He’ll get to face at least four batters with strikeout rates above 22%. The xStats also support this play as Soriano holds lefties to a rate of (.168/.341) and righties to a rate of (.107/.298). This is a great way to start your lineups.
On the other side of Soriano is the next pitcher we like with Ranger Suarez in his matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. He has strikeout rates of 29% to LHH and 24% to RHH. He’ll get to face at least three batters with strikeout rates above 28% which is enough upside to work with. The X stats solidify this play Suarez holds lefties to a rate of (.120/.295) and righties to a rate of (.094/.292). This is a great stacking partner with Soriano if you choose to pair them together.
The first value pitcher of the slate is Luis Castillo who takes on the Cincinnati Reds. The upside in this play resides in the strikeout department because he’ll get to face up to seven batters with strikeout rates above 22%. In the last 30 days, the top three pitches to LHH for Castillo which he throws over 88% of the time all have xISOs under .150. Lastly, Castillo holds RHH to the tune of (.126/.301). This is a great way to free up salary to spend elsewhere.
The next value pitcher we like is Tyler Mahle who takes on the New York Mets. He has been fantastic over the last month as he strikes out LHH at a 32% clip and RHH at a 22% clip. He’ll get to face seven batters with strikeout rates above 22%. He has also held LHH to a rate of (.145/.268) and RHH to a rate of (.141/.296). This is another value play with fantastic upside that can help you free up salary.
Your top optimal offense tonight is none other than the Los Angeles Dodgers in a matchup with Royals opener Daniel Lynch, followed by right-hander Mason Black in a bulk relief role. Regardless, it’s a bullpen game for one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball against one of the most dangerous lineups in all of baseball. We will focus on Black, who is a RHP with a pretty even pitch mix. He has been hit hard by batters from both sides, allowing each xwOBAs above .380, with LHH boasting an xISO of .232. Either way, just about every bat in this Dodgers lineup is viable, and despite the high price tags, they still project quite well in terms of point/$. Our top options are the LHH like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Kyle Tucker. From the other side of the plate, Mookie Betts, Andy Pages, and Teoscar Hernandez can more than hold their own right-on-right and are firmly in play. Finally, if looking for a value piece from this lineup, Hunter Fedducia will hit from the left side and actually has some decent numbers against righty fastballs, a pitch Black features 25% of the time to them.
Your other optimal option tonight is a little lighter on the wallet and fits nicely around the high-priced studs of the Dodgers. Similar to last night, a decent team total and affordable price tags have most of the Texas Rangers lineup popping in terms of point/$. They get a matchup with George Klassen, who has bounced back and forth from the majors and the minors this season, making his second start in his most recent big league stretch. Klassen really struggled with his command in his last start, and if that continues to be an issue, it is hard to imagine he can go very deep into the game. Thus, the Rangers should get to the Angels bullpen sooner rather than later, providing a lot of upside with how bad they have been. Klassen has been hit hard by batters from both sides, with xwOBAs over .380 to both. Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Brandon Nimmo, Wyatt Langford, Jake Burger, and Evan Carter would be our top options.
Next up, we have one of our favorite GPP plays tonight as the Chicago White Sox take on Reds righty Rhett Lowder. Lowder has been crushed by LHH this season, allowing them a line of .250/.383. As a result, we want to focus on White Sox LHH like Colson Montgomery (.212/.300), Munetaka Murakami (.321/.387), Sam Antonacci (xwOBA .370), Andrew Benintendi (.259/.332 vs. FB), and Braedon Montgomery (.243/.470 vs. FB), who all hit righties and/or their fastballs hard. Miguel Vargas will hit from the right side but is also viable, as he is slashing .237/.369 vs. RHP this season.
The final GPP option tonight is the Seattle Mariners against Yankees RHP Will Warren. The M’s have one of the higher implied totals on the slate, and almost their entire lineup grades out nicely in terms of point/$. Warren has been hit hard by LHH, especially with his fastball, which he throws nearly 40% of the time to them. Cole Young, Josh Naylor, Dominic Canzone, Cal Raleigh, Brenden Donovan, and Colt Emerson will all hit from the left side and have had some success against righty fastballs. Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, and Taylor Ward have their work cut out for them a little more, but still have had success against righties throughout their careers, especially against guys like Lowder with a fastball/sinker mix. Arozarena and Rodriguez also carry SB upside, which is always intriguing.
Best of luck tonight!