Pitching: Castillo (#1 optimal), deGrom (#2 Optimal), Fried (#1 GPP), Tong (GPP Value), Gray (#3 GPP)
Hitting: HOU (#1 Optimal), Judge (Cash), NYY (#1 GPP), SEA (#2 GPP), KCR (#3 GPP)
Weather: No major concerns on the slate
Your optimal pitching option tonight is Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo. At just $7.7K on DraftKings, Castillo really jumps off the page in terms of point/$ projection. In terms of the matchup, the Rockies will likely send 7 RHH to the plate this evening, which should play right into Castillo’s strengths. On the season, he is holding RHH to an xwOBA of just .303 while striking them out at a 25% clip. The Rockies will send 7 batters to the plate that strike out 25% of the time or more against RHP. Castillo will be popular, but at this price and potential upside given the matchup, he is viable in all formats. Just make sure to try and get different elsewhere if using him in GPP contests.
The optimal pairing with Castillo on DraftKings tonight is Texas Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom. He is a tier below Castillo in terms of point/$ but is firmly planted atop the second tier of arms tonight with a very solid projection for his price. He has had mixed results of late but is still limiting hitters to soft contact, as batters from both sides are being held under xwOBAs of .310 over the last 30 days. The K rates have also been solid over that stretch, getting both righties and lefties 27% of the time. Tonight he will face a Twins lineup that is nothing special and has only a few good hitters to work around. As a team, the Twins’ xwOBA since 8/1 is just .310, which is bottom 10 in the league. They are middle of the pack in terms of K rate, but deGrom has the stuff to set them down. He is who you will want to pair with Castillo in cash games, but he’s okay to fade in GPPs with ownership on DraftKings in the 25–30% range.
Your top GPP option tonight is New York Yankees left-hander Max Fried. On the surface, this does not look like the best matchup for Fried as the White Sox are capable of starting 9 RHH against the lefty. While Fried is lights out against LHH, over the last 30 days he has been equally as good against RHH. For starters, he is striking them out at a 25% clip. In terms of xStats, he is holding them to an elite .070/.272 line against. He is just a slight notch below deGrom in terms of point/$ and projects for slightly less ownership. We love him as a pivot off the chalkier deGrom.
The next option should provide you with some value and should only be considered in GPP contests. Jonah Tong gets the ball for the Mets and is showing some serious strikeout upside for a pitcher at his price. The 22-year-old rookie will make the 5th start of his career coming off a very impressive 8-strikeout performance against a very solid Padres lineup that does not strike out all that much. Tong had elite numbers in the minors before the call-up and struck out an absurd 179 batters across 113.2 innings of work. While his results have been somewhat up and down, the strikeouts have stayed consistent, as he has now struck out 6 or more in 3 of his 4 starts. There is a slight concern with how deep the Mets will actually let him go, but they have allowed him 96 or more pitches in 2 of his 4 starts, and he has put up impressive strikeout numbers even in games where he’s only pitched 5 innings. Tong is rocking some reverse splits in his early career, but that will work to his benefit, turning any switch hitters around to bat LHH. The Cubs’ top offensive threats at this point are also LHH. Tong is holding them to a line of .112/.283 while striking them out 27% of the time. His point/$ projection is very solid, and he is projecting for sub-10% ownership, making him a great GPP play.
Your final GPP option is St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Sonny Gray. Gray has a decent point/$ projection and has flashed a solid ceiling this season with his ability to rack up the Ks. Over the last 30 days, he is getting LHH 32% of the time with RHH fanning out at a 22% clip. In terms of xStats, he has limited hard contact over that stretch, allowing batters from both sides to xwOBAs below .330. The Giants are projected to send 6 batters to the plate that strike out 24% of the time or more against RHP. Gray will see some ownership, but not nearly as much as the other top dogs, making him a solid pivot at a similar projection.
Your optimal stacking option tonight is the Houston Astros in a matchup with Athletics’ right-hander Luis Severino. The Astros do not have the highest implied total but have a number of affordable guys that are really jumping off the page in terms of point/$. Zach Cole, Jesus Sanchez, Yainer Diaz, Carlos Correa, Isaac Paredes, and Jose Altuve to name a few. In terms of the matchup, Severino is allowing RHH an xISO of .212 over the last 30 days and .232 against his fastball, a pitch he throws 33% of the time to them. Altuve (.262/.369 vs FB), Paredes (.206/.367 vs FB), Diaz (.345/.442 vs FB), Walker (.264/.351 vs FB), and Jake Meyers (.188/.399 vs FB) are the RHH that match up well. Severino has not been much better against LHH, allowing them a line of .210/.365. Cole (.342/.373) and Sanchez (.218/.351) would be the LHH to consider. The cherry on top here is wind blowing out of Sutter Health Park, which has provided a boost to HR all season when we see conditions similar to tonight.
The next stacking option has some pieces in it that are definitely cash-game worthy, but a full stack is likely a GPP move. The New York Yankees have the highest implied total on the slate, but elevated price tags make a full stack difficult to get to. As a result, only Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Paul Goldschmidt are seeing significant ownership. The Yankees will face left-handed opener Fraser Ellard. Ellard has very limited experience throwing more than one inning, so he will likely be a true opener. After that, the most likely two guys to handle bulk duties are Tyler Alexander and Wikelman Gonzalez. The common theme we see from these two is trouble against LHH over the last 30 days. The right-hander Gonzalez throws a ton of fastballs and has allowed a line of .310/.442 against it. The left-hander Alexander is allowing LHH a line of .315/.447 over the last 30 days. He is more of a junk pitcher, throwing his sweeper and other off-speed pitches more often than his fastball. That said, he still throws the fastball around 25% of the time to batters from both sides with very little success. We all know by now that the Yankees are an elite fastball-hitting team, especially their LHH. Trent Grisham (.408/.438 vs FB), Cody Bellinger (.428/.502 vs FB), Ben Rice (.468/.515 vs FB), Jazz Chisholm (.282/.331 vs FB), Austin Wells (.305/.382 vs FB), and Ryan McMahon (.283/.367 vs FB) all stand out. Obviously, Aaron Judge (.657/.531 vs FB) and Giancarlo Stanton (xISO .263 vs FB) are very much in play as well.
One of our favorite GPP stacking options tonight is the Seattle Mariners in a matchup with Rockies’ right-hander Tanner Gordon. For starters, the M’s are second only to the Yankees in terms of implied total, but only J-Rod is projecting for over 10% ownership at around 11%. This is a dynamite matchup, as Gordon has been hit hard by both sides and throws a ton of fastballs—over 50% of the time to both righties and lefties. Over the last 30 days, he is allowing RHH a line of .220/.349 against his fastball, with LHH slashing an absurd .349/.382 against it. Randy Arozarena (.247/.390 vs FB), Cal Raleigh (.306/.361 vs FB), Julio Rodriguez (.262/.371 vs FB), Jorge Polanco (.285/.404 vs FB), Eugenio Suarez (.296/.375), Dominic Canzone (.246/.382 vs FB), and Josh Naylor (xwOBA .369 vs FB) all mash righty fastballs and are very much in play. Cal Raleigh is also on narrative watch, needing 2 HRs to reach 60 on the season and 4 to catch Judge’s 62.
The next GPP stacking option we like is the Kansas City Royals against Angels’ left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, specifically their RHH. Kikuchi is allowing RHH a line of .204/.351 this season with a .235/.371 line against his fastball, a pitch he throws over 35% of the time to them. Bobby Witt Jr. (.271/.362 vs FB), Salvador Perez (.205/.314), Jonathan India (xwOBA .344 vs FB), and Randal Grichuk (.268/.373 vs FB) will all hit from the right side and have had some success against LHP this season. Kikuchi has been much better against LHH but is still allowing them an xwOBA of .375 against his fastball. This brings Vinnie Pasquantino (.241/.343 vs FB) and rookie power hitter Carter Jensen into play.
Best of luck!