Update: We’re removing Misiorowski from consideration because he was scratched on Sunday due to fatigue, so it would be pretty ridiculous if he pitched in this game. This probably adds even more edge to the slate because fish will just play him without realizing that he probably gets 0.
CPT/MVP Pitchers: Cease (cash)
CPT/MVP Hitters: Schwarber (cash), Stewart, Crow-Armstrong, Arozerana, McGonigle, Wood, Bazzana (super GPP)
UTIL Pitchers: Sanchez (cash), Miller (cash), Smith (GPP), Varland (GPP), O’Brien (GPP), Baker (GPP)
UTIL Hitters: Vargas, Rafaela, Goodman, Witt Jr, Caminero, Abrams, Muncy, Soto
After a terrible night of Derby bets, we turn our attention to the greatest edge in DFS: The MLB All-Star Game. We have historically crushed the All-Star Game slates due to the exceptional tournament leverage that it provides. We are excited for the evening on the Diamond and cannot wait to sweat it with you all once again. Let’s get down to business!
We want to start by breaking down the optimal strategy for GPPs for the MLB All-Star Game. Starting with the bats, most people go out of their way to play the most expensive players that are in the starting lineups for both teams, because people absolutely hate leaving salary on the table. This in turn causes the bench bats to be much lower owned than they should be. That will manifest itself once again tonight with the top options like Yordan Alvarez and Juan Soto. Eating that kind of chalk makes no sense on a slate like this where most of the bench bats will see the same number of ABs as the starters (typically two) against pitchers that are roughly the same quality throughout the night. The reality is that even the bench guys on both sides are still studs who are playing in this game for a reason. They are nearly just as capable of putting up a respectable fantasy score, while being significantly lower owned. People get suckered into playing the chalk because both of the sites price the starters as far more expensive than the bench players, which in turn causes your lineup to feel quite funny if you end up leaving thousands of salary on the board. You start thinking that maybe Abrams costs way more than Arozarena for a reason, and you don’t want to look stupid leaving $5k salary on the table, so you decide to “upgrade” to Abrams. We are here to tell you that you should be leaving salary. There is nothing wrong with not spending anywhere near your full salary allotment for this slate. The optimal captain a few years ago was Elias Diaz. He was 0.2% owned and hit a homer, which just goes to show the value of playing the lower-owned options at the dish. Any of these guys can homer and they will be instantly optimal if they do. Our header goes ahead and calls out our favorite options to choose from, but just know that any bench option can be played if you are MMEing and you want to hunt for low ownership. If you are building 150 lineups, we would recommend getting 3% exposure at minimum to every hitter. While we don’t love eating the chalk on starters, you don’t want the first homer hit to eliminate you. I often build with 1 or 2 starters and 4 or 5 bench options. This way I can play the bench leverage while still capturing an early home run.
That then brings us to the pitchers. Like always for the All-Star Game slate, the pitchers are only in the player pool on DraftKings. Our stance on the pitchers is that the best strategy for GPPs is to play very few of them (playing none is totally viable). In fact, two years ago, the game was a low-scoring 3-2 game, and despite that, zero pitchers were in the winning lineup. That may seem strange, but let us explain. This stance has everything to do with the scoring system and how the pitchers are used in the game. Over the past four seasons, there has been one pitcher, all the way back in 2021, Corbin Burnes, who has thrown more than one inning in this game and he got slammed, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits. With that in mind, there is clearly a very hard cap on the number of points a pitcher is going to be able to accumulate in this spot. They receive 2.25 points for completing an inning, 2 points for each strikeout, and then -0.6 points for each baserunner they allow. Even if they have a pristine inning where they strike out 2 and allow no baserunners, that’s just 6.25 points. If they have the same strong inning and only fan 1, you are looking at 4.25 points. These scores can be exceeded by a mere double and a run. Now, just imagine what the pitcher score would look like if they allow a baserunner or two and a run on top of that. Completely useless to your lineup. While the pitchers do provide a strong points floor for cash games, they lack the ultimate upside you need to help you take down GPPs. The top scorers on this slate will always be hitters because they can score so many points with one swing and the pitchers can’t reach that ceiling. The relief pitchers do have a little bit of extra upside in that one of them will likely be credited with the win, but it’s extremely difficult to nail that as only one pitcher in the whole field will get that bonus, and many hitters can score double digits.
The two starting pitchers tonight are Dylan Cease and Cristopher Sanchez. Both of them are solid cash game plays since they are guaranteed to pitch an inning, are super affordable, and will be pretty highly owned as a result. As mentioned, the issue for them, as it is for all of the pitchers, is that they are pretty much guaranteed to see one inning maximum. Our preference in GPPs is to fade both of them, but if you do want to play one, we would recommend Cease. He has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league, and for a pitcher to pay off you probably need two strikeouts in the inning.
Outside of the starters on the mound, you are going to want to hunt for pitchers with strong strikeout ability to really enhance your upside as much as possible. I also think you want as little ownership as possible so you have a chance to really get paid off if they have a perfect inning and possibly even get the win. I’m thinking like 10% exposure to some of these higher strikeout, lower owned arms. Now you may be thinking how would the high strikeout guys also be low owned. If it’s a big name like Jacob Misiorowski or Mason Miller, then he won’t be. Their elite K rates are on full display for DFS players every week or all over social media in Miller’s case. I wouldn’t plan on using them in GPPs when there are much lesser-known pitchers with similar upside. For example, some people have never even heard of 31-year-old Asian pitcher Riley O’Brien, who is one save behind Miller for the NL lead. While his K rates aren’t quite as high as the aces, he still gets over 30% of righties and might be as low as 1% owned by being a Cardinals reliever that’s rarely in the media. We believe the best pitching options on this slate are Cade Smith and Louis Varland, with Bryan Baker and Riley O’Brien in the next tier down. These guys all offer good combinations of high K rates, low damage allowed, and lower popularity than most of the starting pitchers, who generally have lower K rates. We wouldn’t suggest having more than one pitcher in a large field GPP lineup, as the path to a huge score for these guys is being credited with the win, which will only happen for one of them.
In terms of the bats, the best way to attack this slate is to simply play the ones that are going to be the lowest owned since everybody is going to have a very similar number of at-bats (roughly 2 each). A few guys may only get one, but usually we can figure out who is most at risk for that by examining the depth charts. Below is our analysis of each position for both teams.
Position Breakdown – AL
DH
Yordan Alvarez and Yandy Díaz are the two listed DH options, but obviously any position player could fill the DH role, making this a tricky lineup spot to predict. It could provide an opportunity for players at some of the deeper positions to pick up an extra AB or two. Overall, DH, catcher, and first base all present a bit of a logjam, and we would focus on the reserve options at OF, 2B, SS, and 3B.
Catcher
Langeliers, Dingler, and Rutschman are all on the roster. This is tied for the deepest position group in the AL, and unless one of them takes an AB as the DH, then we should probably be avoiding the subs. Langeliers should still get 2 ABs and has great power, so he’s viable, but will be pretty popular.
1B
Rice, Contreras, and Murakami look like the main first base options. Yandy Díaz is also on the roster but is most likely to serve as a DH. Either way, this position is tied with catcher for the deepest group. Similar to Langeliers, Rice is viable with big time power and as the starter he probably gets 2 ABs, although that’s not guaranteed. The combination of Dingler, Rutschman, Contreras, Murakami, and Diaz will essentially be splitting 6-7 ABs. It only takes one to put up an optimal score, but we’d much rather target the positions that we think are pretty safe to get 2 ABs each.
2B
Clement and Bazzana are the only two primary second basemen on the roster, making this one of the thinnest groups. Clement likely gets two at-bats before giving way to Bazzana for the rest of the game. Bazzana has great power/speed upside and also owns the platoon advantage over the NL relief pitchers, who are all right-handed, and we typically see the starters used earlier and the relievers often come in later. Bazzana is slashing .190/.341 against right-handed fastballs this season, which he’s set to see a lot of. He’s far from the most menacing hitter in this game, but that should keep him very low owned as people probably aren’t thinking “you know who I bet is gonna be optimal tonight? Travis Bazzana.” In a game that often doesn’t have a ton of scoring, a single and a stolen base could be all it takes for Bazzana to sneak into the top 6 scorers.
SS
Bobby Witt Jr. and Kevin McGonigle are the only two primary shortstops on the roster, making this one of the thinnest groups. Witt Jr. is obviously a much better hitter than Clement, so maybe he stays in the game for a third at-bat before giving way to McGonigle, but that’s pretty uncommon out of the 5 spot. Witt is the veteran now and seems more likely to hand things over to the rookie after two at-bats, giving McGonigle the potential for 3+ ABs if the offense is turning the lineup over, but at the very least he should get 2 unless the offense is atrocious tonight. McGonigle also owns the platoon advantage over the NL relievers and has crushed right-handed fastballs to the tune of .241/.393. He is a great GPP play.
3B
Junior Caminero and Miguel Vargas are the only two primary third basemen on the roster, making this another thin group. Similar to Witt Jr., Caminero could push for a third AB, but it is not guaranteed, and Vargas likely sees the remainder of the game once he replaces Caminero. Vargas does not own the platoon advantage against the relievers, but he crushes right-on-right fastballs, posting a .232/.363 line. The back end of the NL starting pitching staff also features a handful of lefties in Luzardo, Wrobleski, Griffin, and Sale. Vargas is slashing .316/.445 against left-handed pitching this season, so if he gets a matchup with one of them, it could work out great.
OF
Trout, Greene, and Bellinger are the three starters, and there appear to be just three reserve outfielders behind them in Arozarena, Rafaela, and Peters, making this another thin group with one reserve per starter. Peters owns the platoon advantage against the relievers, slashing .189/.351 against right-handed fastballs, but he has rough left-on-left numbers if he faces any of the back-end starters mentioned above. His solid stats against righties are also not supported by the X stats, so he’s a full fade for us. Awesome story coming from the Savannah Bananas to the MLB All-Star Game, but we can cheer for him metaphorically without burning our bankrolls. Arozarena has one of the best power/speed profiles in the player pool and could see three ABs. He has exceptional right-on-right fastball numbers (.266/.405), giving him a boost against any of the relievers. Surprisingly, he has struggled against left-handed pitching this year, slashing just .130/.317. Rafaela also offers some power/speed upside. However, his numbers against right-on-right fastballs are fairly mediocre (.124/.308), and he is slashing only .138/.290 against left-handed pitching. The thing that still makes him viable is that Trout is in the leadoff spot, and if they pull him after just 2 ABs then Rafaella would have a shot at receiving a 3rd AB should they get through the lineup 4 times.
Position Breakdown – NL
DH
Schwarber and Herrera are the two listed DH options, but just like the AL, the flexibility of the position makes it difficult to project. We have hometown favorite Schwarber, who you would imagine gets at least two, if not three, ABs and will likely face two or three of the fastball-heavy right-handed starters from the AL that we mentioned earlier. It pains us to say it because he will be the overwhelmingly chalky, but Schwarber is in as good a spot as anyone to homer tonight, carrying a .413/.481 slash line against right-handed fastballs this season. Despite being listed as the only other DH, we think Herrera may get lost in the shuffle here, and we could see a scenario where he gets only one AB. The expected stats are nothing special either, so we have little interest in him. The caution on Schwarber, as mentioned, is the ownership, and at the end we’ll address why he might be over owned here.
Catcher
Baldwin, Contreras, and Goodman are all on the roster and likely to play. Similar to the AL, this is one of the deepest position groups and is difficult to predict. Herrera is also on the roster but is currently listed as a DH. Contreras and Goodman may be worth a dart in GPPs because they have pretty nice power. Goodman in particular has xISOs well over .200 to both sides, so even if he gets just one AB he could make it worthwhile. Both guys are risky though.
1B
Freeman, Harper, Olson, and Stewart are all on the roster, making this a deep group that is tough to project. Given how the roster is constructed, we would expect Stewart to play third base, so we can remove him from this mix. That leaves three veteran options. Harper is the hometown player, and we would imagine they find a way to get him at least two ABs. He may lack the path to a third AB, given the number of other options available. That said, we could see a world where they decide to do something like Freeman for one AB, Olson for one AB, and then Harper for the remainder of the game. That’s what they did last year to get Alonso 2 ABs, and Olson was in his home park last year. You’d think if he and Freeman (former Brave) would take 1 AB each last year, they’ll do it again for hometown Harper to get 2. It can be tough to predict what the veterans will do that have played in tons of ASG weekends before, but this is as likely of a spot to replicate what we just saw last year. However, at the end we dive deep into the hometown narrative, and you’ll see that it hasn’t held up in the past. Philly fans are a different beast, but Harper was hugely popular in Washington DC and they didn’t give him extra ABs in that game either. It almost never happens, as you’ll see below, but even without the narrative it seems decently likely that Freeman and Olson follow the same script as last year.
2B
Ozzie Albies and Luis Arraez are the only two primary second-base options. Despite the potential for three ABs, Arraez is a tough click because of his lack of home run upside, regardless of how many opportunities he receives. He could get there with an RBI double or something, but he’s not super appealing.
3B
Max Muncy is the only everyday third baseman on this roster, but Sal Stewart has played 39 of his 95 games at the position this season. Given that Muncy is a veteran who has been here before, we would assume Stewart enters after Muncy gets two ABs and then stays in for the rest of the game, giving him an opportunity for 3+ ABs.The AL pitching staff is right-handed-heavy from top to bottom, but their best reliever is a lefty in Aroldis Chapman, who we would imagine gets an inning at some point. The good news for Stewart is that he owns a .277/.385 line against left-handed pitching and a .202/.340 line against right-handed pitching. He is having a breakout campaign and is exactly the type of player who may go overlooked in this contest. He is likely our favorite overall GPP play if we trust that he is on the roster to replace Muncy at 3rd rather than getting lost in the crowded first-base rotation. As of now we fully trust that’s the case.
SS
CJ Abrams and Otto Lopez are the only two primary shortstops on the roster. This makes Abrams one of our favorite starter options. Given how thin the NL is behind him at both shortstop and middle infield in general, we think he could push for a third AB depending on how the game unfolds. Abrams also carries a significant platoon advantage against the right-handed-heavy AL starting group, with Cease, Schlittler, and Ryan all likely to throw at least one of the first four to five innings. All three are fastball-heavy pitchers, and Abrams has hit righties and their fastballs well, slashing .213/.357 overall and .170/.367 specifically against their fastballs. Lopez is an interesting reserve option with nine home runs and 17 stolen bases this season. The xStats do not jump off the page, but the power/speed upside is there, and he will likely play the remainder of the game after Abrams exits. Both NL shortstops are good plays and using them both could be unique. You lose a little bit of upside because if Abrams gets 3 ABs it directly takes one from Lopez, but both guys are good plays and they probably won’t be paired often in other people’s lineups.
OF
Marsh, Soto, and Pages are the three starters, with Carroll, Wood, Crow-Armstrong, and Walker serving as the four reserve outfielders. This makes things a bit more difficult to predict, as there are four substitutes competing for three spots. Crow-Armstrong has the best power/speed upside and owns the platoon advantage over the right-handed-heavy pitching group, slashing .256/.377 against righties this season. He’s also the only centerfielder on the bench, so he should replace Pages and safely get 2 ABs. Wood is likely our next favorite option, with serious home run upside and excellent numbers against both right-handed pitching (.377/.462) and left-handed pitching (.282/.386). Walker is fresh off his Home Run Derby win and has decent splits against both sides, but he has struggled against right-on-right fastballs (.128/.285). On the other hand, he has crushed lefties and their fastballs, matching up well with Chapman and Latz, who are two of the AL’s five relievers. The main risk for him is that there’s a logjam at right field, and since he already stole the show last night they may view him as the guy who can take just 1 AB and cede the rest to the other guys. Carroll also brings power/speed upside, but his X stats this season leave something to be desired. Overall, this is a difficult position group to dissect, and it is hard to predict who will be the odd man out. Soto and Marsh look like the best starters as we like the LHH against the righty heavy AL starters. PCA is our favorite reserve option of the group with Wood just behind him.
Overall, on the AL side, Bobby Witt Jr and Junior Caminero are our favorite starting options. They do not have a ton of depth behind them at their respective positions which could allow them to stay in the game for an extra AB. Caminero has serious HR upside and Witt Jr. has a great power/speed combination. Moving to the reserves, on the AL side we likely want to avoid the logjam at the C/1B/DH spots in the lineup. We prefer the backups at the thinner position groups like 2B/SS/3B/OF making McGonigle, Vargas, Arozarena, Rafaela, and Bazzana our preferred options. The NL relievers are also all RHP so we can probably expect a righty from the 7th inning on if they choose to deploy the pitching in a traditional manner. We prefer the reserves as our captains because they’ll be much lower owned and historically the reserves actually get 3 ABs more often because the lineup turns over a 5th time and now there’s nobody waiting on the bench to replace them.
On the NL side, Schwarber, Abrams, Muncy, and Soto are our favorite starting options. One thing that makes this ASG a bit different is the predictability of the matchups for these NL starters as 3 of the primary AL starters are very similar pitchers. Cease, Schlittler, and Ryan are all fastball heavy righties, giving us a chance to lean on xStats a bit and target the LHH in the lineup that hit righty fastballs well, which all 4 of these guys do. We don’t typically like this many starters, but we think there’s a unique opportunity here with the matchups. Moving to the reserves, Stewart, Wood, Harper, Lopez, and PCA would be our favorites.
Two more things worth discussing are narratives, and one has some merit while the other is worthless but drives ownership. The one with no merit is that hometown hitters do better or get more ABs. Going back 5 years, not one hometown hitter has received 3 ABs, which is probably bad variance considering how many guys do get 3 ABs, but it shows there’s no favoritism towards them. In fact, many times these guys are getting just 1 AB, which is very puzzling. Ohtani in LA, Julio in Seattle, Seager in Texas, Olson in Atlanta. This year we may all get stunned by Schwarber getting pulled early, or Harper not getting his 2. It’s so easy to assume this year will be different, and admittedly we were guilty of it as we wrote the breakdown. Now I sit here digging through old box scores and thinking wow if we almost fell for this, despite all the research we’ve done for all five of the past ASG slates, think about how many people will just click Schwarber or Harper thinking “surely he goes off in Philly.”
The other narrative is that guys in the Derby don’t do as well. That one is true, but mainly because they don’t get as many ABs. In 2024 and 2025 we saw 3 of the 7 participants (Garcia wasn’t an All-Star in 24 and Cruz wasn’t in 25) get just 1 AB in the All-Star Game. Now this may seem like the Derby guys are being punished for already having their time in the spotlight, but it’s probably more related to the positions that these sluggers play. There’s often a logjam at first base and DH in these games, and of course those guys make up a huge chunk of the Derby participants. So all in all, I wouldn’t say this narrative truly has merit, even though it appears to on the surface. I think you just need to pay attention to the positional logjams. I’d use this as a tiebreaker where there is a logjam, because that does seem to be where they draw the short end of the stick. The guys I’d worry about tonight based on this narrative are Jordan Walker in the RF logjam, Schwarber and Harper with the DH and 1B logjams (and the faulty hometown narrative pushing their ownership up), and Rice and Murakami in the same spot for the AL.