You currently can find the Orioles for +105 odds on Caesars. We like them to -120. Sharp money has been coming on the Orioles as well as their line has shifted in their favor significantly after opening at +125 which suggests Vegas feels liability on their exposure here.
Baltimore will be sending Dean Kremer to the mound today and he will be facing a very favorable matchup for him. Over the last thirty days, he has shredded righties with a 31% K rate and a .104 xISO/.257 xwOBA against him. Lefties have smashed his heater with a .428/.423 line against it over that span. However, he is projected to see five righties tonight and of the lefties that he will see, he really only has to concern himself with Schwarber and Harper as both Stott and Bohm do not have good numbers against righty heaters this season. We like the chances for him to be able to avoid the danger here and work his way safely through the rest of the order given his advanced stats of late.
On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez is starting for the Phillies and this will be a gauntlet for him to have to face. The Orioles are projected to start a full nine righties against him this evening which will be brutal for him. Sanchez has been disgustingly good against lefties over the last thirty days (32% K rate, .025/.192 line) but it won’t matter tonight at all. He has been quite poor against righties over that same span (16% K rate, .231/.361 line). Nearly all of the Orioles bats smash the changeup and slider from lefties in addition to the sinker which will make this a herculean feat for Sanchez to overcome the terrible pitch value alignment here. With better than even odds in this spot, this is a no brainer of a bet for us.