This bet is +115 on Draftkings and we like it to -110. Jake Irvin for the Nationals has been giving up hard contact consistently, to the tune of a 13.2% barrel rate. He struggles equally against each side of the plate, with an xISO of .271 to LHH & .212 to RHH. His struggles are even worse at home, where hitters are slugging .511 against him, compared to .329 on the road.
Temps near 90 degrees in Washington tonight will only cause more trouble to his almost 20 degree launch angle & 62% AIR (Fly balls + Line drives + Pop ups). The majority of the Cubs lineup will have above average xISO’s against RHP with launch angles in the 15-20 degree range, meaning there should be plenty of well hit balls in the air. Combining Irvin’s struggles with a Nationals bullpen that has been one of the most homer prone in the league all season, we like the edge on this prop. It can be found under the “team” tab for this game on DK.