We are seeing the best value on this prop at DraftKings, where you can get it at -137. We like it all the way to -150. Javier’s surface stats have been less than stellar, but that’s not what we’re focused on here. He could allow some damage and still clear this number with ease. We also see this as a potential ladder opportunity if that’s something you’re interested in. Javier owns average strikeout rates against left-handed hitters, but he has really elevated his numbers against right-handed hitters of late, striking them out at over a 40% clip across his last handful of appearances. The Blue Jays are expected to have four right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight, which should work in his favor. There is some concern that Javier could still be on a pitch count after missing a few months with an injury, but he was allowed to throw 70 pitches in his last start. That workload was enough for him to complete five innings while racking up seven strikeouts against the Angels. As long as Javier is given a similar workload tonight, we like his chances of getting there. The strikeout matchup is favorable, and his recent swing-and-miss ability against right-handed hitters gives him a strong path to clearing this number.
