Pitching: Cole (SP1), Detmers (SP2/GPP1), Hancock (GPP 2), Bennett (GPP 3), Cavalli (GPP leverage)
Hitting: WSH (Optimal), BOS (GPP 1), LAA (GPP 2), SEA (GPP 3)
Weather: All Clear!
With a couple of rain outs last night, we have got a nice 8 game early slate here so let’s get right into it.
Your top optimal pitching option is New York Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole in a matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cole has strikeout rates of 26% against left-handed hitters and 19% against right-handed hitters while holding lefties to a .159/.275 line and righties to a .136/.325 line. Cole will be popular, and there is some merit to fading him in GPP contests, especially if his ownership pushes over 40%. For starters, Cole has allowed two or more earned runs in eight straight starts and has struck out seven or more batters in just two of those eight. The Pirates also have one of the more underrated lineups in the league, with a handful of hitters who have very good numbers against right-handed pitching and right-handed fastballs, Cole’s most-used pitch. Cole has the floor and projection for cash games, but don’t be afraid to look elsewhere in GPPs.
Cole is dominating the ownership at around 40%, but after him there are a number of guys hovering around the same price point and point-per-dollar projection. With so many options, the ownership is fairly spread out. Each of the following pitchers is a viable second optimal option, but also great for GPP contests because none of their ownership projections eclipses 20%.
One of those guys is Reid Detmers, who gets the ball for the Los Angeles Angels in a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals. Detmers can be a tricky one to nail down because his expected stats have been solid all season, but his game logs show some poor outings. Trusting the xStats, though, we can conclude that these poor outings are often more bad luck than poor performances, and we can use that to our advantage if others are simply reacting to the box scores. On the season, Detmers has elite strikeout rates, getting left-handed hitters 25% of the time while right-handed hitters are fanning at a 28% clip. He has been lights out against lefties, holding them to a .085/.289 line, with righties slashing .149/.279. The Cardinals are expected to send seven right-handed hitters to the plate this afternoon, which aligns with Detmers’ stronger strikeout split, adding to both his floor and ceiling in this matchup. The projection and matchup are fantastic for cash games, and the lower ownership makes him great for GPPs as well.
Next up we have Emerson Hancock in a matchup with the Cincinnati Reds. Hancock’s main struggles this year have come against left-handed hitters, but he seems to have figured some things out against them. Over the last 30 days, he is holding them to a .075/.236 line while maintaining solid numbers against right-handed hitters. The strikeout rates are solid as well, getting lefties 25% of the time and righties 23% of the time. The Reds are projected to send five hitters to the plate who strike out 23% of the time or more against right-handed pitching this season, which should help Hancock post a solid score. Given his projection and ownership, he is viable in all contest formats this afternoon.
Jake Bennett gets the ball for the streaking Red Sox in a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. Bennett has been on an absolute tear of late, scoring 20 or more DraftKings points in five straight starts with three shutouts over that span. His strikeout upside is not huge, but his efficiency and ability to go deep into games are unmatched and give him a very solid floor. The xStats are outstanding, and while the strikeout rates are not elite, he is still getting hitters from both sides at around a 20% clip. This matchup can also help his strikeout numbers, as the Orioles can swing and miss with the best of them. Seven of the Orioles’ projected starters have strikeout rates of 25% or higher this season.
With Coors Field on the slate, the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies are once again your top projected offenses, as they are the only two teams carrying implied totals above five runs. That said, this game may not play quite as offensively as the first two games of the series. The wind is expected to blow in and strengthen throughout the game, and both teams will face much tougher starting pitching than they have seen so far in this series.
Gabriel Hughes gets the ball for the Rockies in just his third start of the season. While the sample is small, he has been impressive, holding left-handed hitters to a .085/.325 line while limiting right-handed hitters to just .089/.176. He also did an excellent job against a talented Dodgers lineup in his last outing. Hughes posted an ERA north of 4.00 throughout his minor league career, so it would be premature to expect him to continue pitching at this level. However, he has shown enough early on to suggest this game may not turn into the typical Coors shootout the field is expecting, making it reasonable to fade some of the expected ownership in GPPs. In cash games, we simply cannot ignore the combination of raw score and point-per-dollar projection for James Wood, CJ Abrams, Curtis Mead, Daylen Lile, and Harry Ford.
Opposing Hughes is Cade Cavalli, who not only gives us a reason to temper expectations for the Rockies’ offense but also provides an intriguing leverage option on the mound. Cavalli has struck out both left- and right-handed hitters at a 26% clip this season while holding each side to an xISO below .140. More recently, he has taken his game to another level, posting an elite 43% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters and a 30% rate against lefties over the last 30 days. The strikeout upside is undeniable, and because of the Coors factor he could be virtually unowned, making him an excellent GPP play with slate-breaking upside.
Your top GPP stacking option is the Red Sox, who will take on Baltimore Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer. Kremer is making his fourth start of the season after starting the year on the IL. In his first three starts, the expected stats for Kremer are not great, with left-handed hitters slashing .255/.338 and right-handed hitters slashing .289/.342. While this is not the biggest sample size, he did get hit pretty hard by left-handed hitters over a much larger sample last season. The Red Sox hitters batting from the left side today are Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Siegler, and Tsung-Che Cheng. Abreu and Duran would be our favorites, while the other three make for great value pieces. The only right-handed hitter we really want to prioritize from this lineup is Wilson Contreras, but Ceddanne Rafaela and Caleb Durbin are also viable with solid point-per-dollar projections. This game was not originally on this slate, so this offense may be going a bit overlooked despite having the third-highest implied total on the slate and reasonable prices across the board.
Another offense with a decent implied total and affordable prices is the Los Angeles Angels in a matchup with Cardinals right-hander Hunter Dobbins. Dobbins has been hit pretty hard this season by hitters from both sides of the plate, with his fastball in particular getting crushed. Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Vaughn Grissom, Josh Lowe, and Logan O’Hoppe have all hit right-handed fastballs well this season and are our top choices. Jo Adell and Jorge Soler struggle a little bit in the righty-on-righty split, but both are very cheap for their power upside and have solid point-per-dollar projections, making them more than viable if they fit your build.
The final GPP option we like for this afternoon’s slate is the Seattle Mariners against Reds right-hander Brady Singer. Singer is actually on a pretty nice stretch right now, but we think that is helping the public shy away from what should be a pretty solid matchup for a number of the Mariners. Singer has been crushed by left-handed hitters throughout his career, and the xStats this year show no difference. On the season, he is allowing them to slash .214/.343. Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Josh Naylor, and Colt Emerson will all be hitting from the left side today and should be licking their chops in this matchup. Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena will hit from the right side, a split Singer has been better against. However, he is still allowing right-handed hitters an xwOBA of .355 this season, and both J-Rod and Randy carry stolen base upside, making them viable pieces of the stack.