Impact of New(ish) Derby Rules:
Before we dive into our bets, we want to make sure everybody is aware of how the rules have shifted in the past two years of the Derby. Prior to a year ago, sluggers were seeded 1-8 in a bracket starting in the first round and every round was purely timed. This provided the incentive to throw as many pitches as possible and swing as many times as possible, which ultimately tired out the hitters by the time we got to the end of the Derby. Now, each round is 3 minutes long maximum, but each hitter will see a MAX of 40 pitches thrown. Hitters will then get a bonus period where they will go until they make 3 “outs” and can earn a 4th out if they hit a 425-foot homer in the bonus round (which is no longer timed at all). The top 4 hitters in the first round will advance to the 2nd round and be seeded 1-4 and then it will go H2H from there. These same rules hold true for the semi-final round, with the Finals being 2 minutes/27 pitches long with the same bonus period. Obviously, the impact of this is that it makes it much, much harder to nail the straight forecasts because the semi-final brackets are entirely set based on 1st round performance and we do not know the bracket beforehand. With that being said, we have nailed the exact result for two years in a row and we will be doing our best to nail things down once again here!
The impact of these updated rules is quite apparent if you take the time to study them. With the 40-pitch maximum now in play, that actually provides an added edge to the more diminutive sluggers who were not able to keep up in the old format. Under the old rules, batters were averaging 43 SWINGS per round. This matters significantly because the odds for this derby are still being priced as if there is an edge to being big and meaty like there was in the old format. The three favorites are the three heaviest participants in Raleigh, Cruz, and Wood. A slugger like Raleigh will see the same number of pitches as everybody else and will need to be efficient, not just bigger than everybody else to succeed. Additionally, with the pitch maximum, it places an added premium on pitchers being able to locate their pitches. If they are throwing putrid pitches up there, it will hurt their hitter even more than before under the purely timed format. The net result here is that the amount of variability in the Derby has skyrocketed under these rules. There really is no reason to take the heavy favorites as they have just as high of a likelihood of their pitcher hosing them as anybody else. If a pitcher is having trouble grooving their pitches, it doesn’t matter how “good” one profiles to be. As a result, the longer shots are the better plays in the derby because these rules have substantially leveled the playing field, especially because there are viable reasons to take nearly all of them.
Let’s now get into the bets! We will start with a header of sorts listing all of our favorites and then provide analysis beneath that.
_______________________________________________
Must-Have Bets (2-Units):
Jazz Chisholm, Jr: Under 17.5 1st Round Homers (-110) (DraftKings)
Oneil Cruz: Under 21.5 1st Round Homers (-128) (FanDuel)
James Wood: Under 20.5 1st Round Homers (-113) (FanDuel)
Matt Olson: To Make Semi-Finals (+106) (FanDuel)
Most Homers by Any Player in Round 1: Under 25.5 (-115) (DraftKings)
Byron Buxton OVER Jazz Chisholm: 1st Round Total HRs (-135) (DraftKings)
Top Longshot Derby Winners:
Matt Olson (+900) (FanDuel)
Byron Buxton (+950) (DraftKings)
Junior Caminero (+1200) (DraftKings)
Extra Bets (1 Unit):
Most Homers by any Player in Round 1: Under 23.5 (+270) (DraftKings)
Byron Buxton: To Make Semi-Finals (+120) (DraftKings)
Junior Caminero: To Make Semi-Finals (+160) (DraftKings)
Byron Buxton OVER Oneil Cruz: 1st Round Total HRs (+170) (DraftKings)
Junior Caminero OVER Jazz Chisholm: 1st Round Total HRs (-115) (DraftKings)
Matt Olson OVER Jazz Chisholm: 1st Round Total HRs (-145) (DraftKings)
_______________________________________________
Hitter Breakdowns:
We will provide breakdowns on our stances on each of the sluggers in the Derby. Many of these will give you insights into why we have chosen the above bets. As always, please feel free to ask any questions you may have on Discord in the lead-up to the Derby!
Cal Raleigh:
The Big Dumper is the favorite in this year’s derby and there are honestly a healthy number of reasons to like how he profiles here. He leads the majors in pull percentage and fly ball rate. He also ranks 5th in barrel rate. However, there are too many warning signs for us to sign up to back him here at this price. To start, he actually has fewer expected home runs (32) at Truist Field than actual home runs (38) this season. That is a bearish sign to begin with. He also is the Big Dumper after all. His body type really is not conducive to long term success in the Derby. However, the largest issue we have with Cal is that he very much has “happy to be here” vibes emanating from him. It will be a family affair for Raleigh as his 15 year old brother is catching and his dad is the one pitching to him. We have learned over the years just how important pitcher success is to winning this competition and his dad, although he used to manage at Tennessee, has been sitting on the couch all year long just to get called into action here. We so often see the family member pitchers fall short in the big moment, making the hitter a pretty easy fade. We think this is a very bad spot to back the favorite.
Oneil Cruz:
If you were with us last year, you will remember we took a pretty strong stand against Gunnar Henderson and this is almost an identical spot. Henderson came out and significantly struggled and Oneil Cruz feels like a similarly fishy play to us. We may be eating crow by the end of the derby but he is getting absolutely steamed by the public and carries some of the best odds of any hitter. While he does rank at the top of the field in metrics like bat speed and exit velocity, his launch angle is concerning for the Derby. He hits a ton of line drives and we have seen hitters get stuck in ruts in the past where they can’t elevate the ball. He will have to change his swing pretty significantly to elevate the ball and that is not what you want to see. In a format where efficiency rules the day, that would be horridly detrimental to his chances. As essentially the other “chalk” option of the Derby, he is also somebody we are not in love with as there is too much working against him. We love taking Under 21.5 1st Round Homers for Cruz as there was not a single hitter that exceeded that mark in the first round of last year’s Derby under the current rules. It also doesn’t help him that all of his exit velocity, launch angle, and bat speed have declined over the last month, telling us he is trending negatively. He’s a big swinger so he may hit the longest HR, but we don’t expect him to hit the most.
James Wood:
James Wood is another hitter that has launch angle issues to work with. His launch angle this season is a mere 6.1 degrees, a number that will lend itself to getting in one of those aforementioned ruts that we mentioned with Cruz. That launch angle is 3% lower than the lowest winner of the derby in the last ten years. On top of that, he is a hitter that rarely pulls the ball, ranking a putrid 199th in the majors in that category. Pulling the ball is the primary way hitters have success in the Derby and if he is trying to hit opposite field homers, that typically does not portend success. His fly ball rate is also 6% below the league average. While he does have power in his bat, he has been messing around with his swing in batting practice to try to get it more “derby-ready”, and we certainly do not want to back a hitter that is not going to be in his natural groove while taking hacks. Like with Cruz, his 1st Round line is set too high. He would have to tie the high-water mark from last year’s Derby to cover this line, giving us plenty of reason to back the under.
Matt Olson:
Now we start to get into the meat and potatoes of the Derby and it all starts with Matt Olson. Olson is one of our favorite options to win it all as he is the hometown hitter inserted into the contest just a few days ago with Acuna bowing out. A ton of things are working in his favor. He has seen his launch angle improve over the last month by the most of any hitter in the field. While his barrel rate is lower than Cruz’s, it still would be the second highest amongst all Derby winners over the last ten years. His hard hit rate and exit velocity also each rank second in the field tonight as well. He has the type of swing profile that usually leads to much better odds than we are seeing here and he has the home-town advantage to speak of with the crowd helping give him energy. We think his odds are lower than they otherwise should be due to the fact that he was a late addition to the field. He has Derby experience in the past and his pitcher is the same guy that threw to him then, which is an added edge in a field without any other Derby experience. Lastly, he gets the added benefit of hitting last in the first round tonight, so he will know exactly how many he has to hit to make it through to the semis, making his odds to reach the semi-finals quite enticing to us.
Brent Rooker:
Rooker is another hitter that has some upside here. His pitcher tonight will be his long-time hitting coach who has thrown him BP for years dating back to his childhood, giving him a massive leg up on the competition in this department. However, his average exit velocity and bat speed do not grade out favorably against many of the other competitors in the field. We think he has a pretty high floor but the ceiling on his performances could be limited. For that reason, we think he has hope of making the semi-finals but we question his ability to make a deep run through the field.
Byron Buxton:
Byron Buxton is one of our favorite options on the card tonight and it is easy to see why. It has never been a question of talent for Byron as he has battled the injury bug over the course of his big league career. He is fully healthy tonight and has the second highest raw ISO of any hitter in the field this evening. His 479 foot blast this season is the single longest round-tripper of any slugger he will be facing as well, giving him the easy ability to get the bonus hacks at the end of his round. The added upshot for Byron is that his pitcher will be Tommy Watkins, the Twins’ third base coach who has thrown him batting practice ever since 2013. Buxton is one of the best hitters in baseball on dead center pitches, and he should get a lot of them tonight. You will see his inclusion in a number of our top bets tonight as a result.
Jazz Chisholm, Jr:
As much we love Buxton, on the other side we think Chisholm is the worst bet of any player in the field tonight. He has no business going much of anywhere and some of the quotes we have heard from him in the lead up to the Derby are quite damning. He is letting his stepfather pitch to him tonight, which is a huge error if Jazz’s goal is to actually do well here. Chisholm was quoted as saying “I’m not trying to think that hard about it. I’m not even going to practice for it. The only person that needs practice is my stepdad. For me, I’ll just go out there, have fun, work 70 percent, don’t do too much, just hit a couple of home runs. Hopefully, I’ll win it by doing that.” So let us get things straight. Chisholm won’t practice for the event, is coming off a gnarly oblique injury, and has a pitcher that has never stepped foot on a field in front of a crowd of this size throwing the ball to him. Chisholm already ranks last in the field in both average and max exit velocities as well. Don’t overthink this spot. He’s an easy fade.
Junior Caminero:
Now we get to one of the longer-shots in the field in Junior Caminero and surprise, surprise, we like him a healthy amount. He has hit the third most homers this season of any participant in the field tonight, but even then, not many people know who he is, leading to his odds being installed where they have been. This reeks of Alec Bohm last year. His swing speed is ELITE, ranking second in the majors this season behind just Oneil Cruz. His launch angle is concerning to us, but that is no different than either Oneil or James Wood. The difference here is that his odds are outlandish in comparison. The added upshot is his pitcher, Tomas Francisco, has elite Home Run Derby experience. He threw to Randy Arozarena back in 2023 when Randy finished in second-place of the Derby. All this adds up to an exceptional long-shot to back.
______________________________________________
Straight Forecasts:
Unfortunately, these are a bit harder to predict without knowing the full bracket in advance now. For any straight forecasts to hit, we will have to get some semi-final matchup luck based on the number of first round homers that get hit. With that being said, we can try to game it out. The earlier hitters in this format are going to be trying to hit the most homers compared to the later ones who will know what scores they have to best. That will lend itself to higher seeds in the semis if they were to advance. The straight forecast bets are all betting on exact outcomes in the finals, which you can see is very high risk due to the unpredictable matchups. If you really want to bet these, we’d pair up our favorite bets to win, but we recommend focusing on the bets posted.