Pitching: Dylan Cease (#1 Optimal), Logan Gilbert (#2 Optimal), Chris Paddack (Optimal Value), Erick Fedde (Value GPP), Spencer Arrighetti (Value GPP)
Hitting: MIN (#1 Optimal), TOR (#2 Optimal), NYY (#1 GPP), KC (#2 GPP), HOU (#3 GPP)
Weather: All Clear!
Happy Monday! We have a small 6 game slate tonight and we will break down the best plays and ways to attack it.
We wanted to start with a little commentary on the pitching situation. Tonight there are two clear optimal spend up options with Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert. On Draftkings, Cease is a tad more expensive, but he projects better and therefore is looking to be the higher owned of the two. It seems like most are choosing between one or the other and then pairing them with top pt/$ option Chris Paddack. In cash games, it is probably wise to make your decision between Cease and Gilbert based on your build/salary needs and then pair them with Paddack. In GPPs however, we think it is a good spot to get a bit different with your value play as Paddack is far from a lock in our opinion. He projects well, but there are options like Erick Fedde and Spencer Arrighetti who are in decent spots themselves at half the ownership. We will touch more on all the options below, but just wanted to give you a sense of how the industry is approaching builds. On a smaller slate, it becomes a bit easier to predict what others might do, giving us a good opportunity to get different and look to leverage ourselves in GPPs.
On Fanduel, Cease projects better than Gilbert and is actually a tad bit cheaper. As a result, Cease is projecting to see the most ownership there at 40% to Gilbert’s 20%. Paddack is also the best value option, but since you can only roster one pitcher and most will be going with either Cease or Gilbert, his ownership projection is much lower and currently sits in the low teens. Another factor that contributes to Paddack’s low ownership is that many of the top projected bats aren’t even that expensive, so it’s hard to find ways to utilize all the salary you save by using Paddack over one of the top two studs. The remaining 20-25% of ownership seems to be pretty evenly spread on some of our GPP value guys, with Rodon and Lugo getting a little bit of love as well. In cash, and even SE GPPs you probably just plug Cease in and move on. In larger field GPPs, Cease is still an option, but we like the idea of either pivoting to the similarly priced Gilbert, or going with one of our top value plays.
Dylan Cease is the most popular arm on tonight’s slate and for good reason. He is striking out LHH 26.6% of the time and getting RHH at an elite 34% rate. He has kept opponents xwOBA under .300 to hitters from both sides of the plate with both righties and lefties struggling to the tune of a .290 xwOBA. What makes Cease an even better option on this slate is that he will be facing the lowly Oakland Athletics. Only 4 of the Athletics projected to be in the lineup carry an xwOBA over .300 vs RHP this season and only 1 of those 4 have an xwOBA over .400. In addition, 6 of the 9 strikeout against RHP more than 24% of the time and 4 of those 6 are striking out more than 30%. In this matchup, Cease carries a very high floor and has as good a chance of anyone on the slate to turn in a ceiling performance. He is your number one optimal option for a reason and is a great place to start your cash builds. He is also a fine option in GPPs given his high ceiling and lack of other options on a smaller 6 game slate.
The other high priced option people will be looking at tonight is Seattle Mariners’ righty Logan Gilbert. Gilbert’s strikeout rates are not as elite as Cease’s, but he still gets LHH 28.8% of the time and RHH 19.4% of the time, which are more than respectable numbers. As the strikeout rates would indicate, Gilbert is elite vs LHH and is holding them to an xwOBA of a measly .253. Righties have had a bit more success against Gilbert with an xwOBA of .332. That is slightly above league average, but when you look at the righties Gilbert will face tonight, there is not much cause for concern. Like Cease, Gilbert has a pretty soft matchup as he faces one of the worst teams in baseball, the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox are projected to send 6 RHH to the plate tonight, but of the 6, only 2 have xwOBAs over .300 and only one of the other 4 have xwOBAs over .329. Only 2 of those righties have xISOs over .200 vs RHP. The White Sox also strike out with the best of them and more than half of their lineup has strikeout rates of 25% or higher vs RHP this season. Overall, Gilbert is in a great spot and could be good leverage off of Cease.
The next guy we will touch upon is the industries’ favorite value arm on the slate, Chris Paddack. At just $7.1k on DK and $7.8k on FD Paddack fits well into DK builds with one of the spend up options and his mid 30s ownership reflects that. On FD, with only one pitching spot he is a distant 3rd behind Cease and Gilbert in terms of ownership and makes for an interesting GPP option if you want to load up on expensive bats. Paddack also gets a pretty good matchup as he faces the Colorado Rockies outside of Coors field. On the season, Paddack has struck out LHH 17% of the time, and that number spikes up to 25% vs RHH. The x stats for Paddack aren’t necessarily bad, but they aren’t exactly great either. This does give us some pause, especially if considering him as a chalky option on DK. LHH have an xwOBA of .338 vs Paddack to righties .312, and both have xISOs right around .200. That said, the Rockies are projected to send 4-5 RHH to the plate tonight, all of which strikeout close to 20% of the time or more. Only one of the LHH he is expected to face has an xwOBA of over .290 vs RHP and all of them strikeout more than 25% of the time.
The next guy we will look at can be a solid pivot off Paddack on DK and a deeper GPP option on FD. That would be White Sox righty Erick Fedde. On DK, Fedde is projected to be less owned than Paddack, but still looks to be around 20%. On FD, Fedde is not as cheap and his ownership projection reflects that, coming in at sub 10%. Fedde gets to face the Seattle Mariners, a spot we have targeted quite a bit in the last couple of weeks due to the amount the Mariners strikeout. In general, Fedde strikes out LHH 22.8% of the time and RHH 24.2% of the time. His x stats are a bit better than Paddack’s holding RHH to an xwOBA of .302 and LHH .285. Neither side of the plate has an xISO greater than .150. Of the 9 projected to head to the plate for Seattle tonight, 7 of them strikeout more than 23% of the time vs RHP. In addition, all but 3 have xISOs over .180 which is a good indication that Fedde should be able to limit the damage given that we look to xISO to predict power numbers. This is definitely a spot that is different from site to site. On DK we love Fedde as leverage off of the higher owned Paddack, even in SE or smaller field GPPs. On FD, Fedde is solely a GPP play if you can comfortably fit his slightly higher salary in with your preferred bats.
The next arm we are looking at can also provide you with some value in GPPs and is another potential pivot off Paddack on DK, but more of a dart throw on FD. Spencer Arrighetti is just 6.5K on DK and is projecting for ownership in the 12-16% range. On FD, he is not nearly as cheap, coming in at 8.2K and therefore looking at sub 5% ownership. Arrighetti’s last start was cut short after he took a line drive off of his calf, but all reports say he is all systems go and should not be held to any sort of restrictions. After a rocky first couple of starts, Arrighetti seems to be finding his way as a big leaguer. Before being lifted in his last start due to injury, he put together 3 strong innings allowing just 1 ER striking out 4 against a formidable Astros lineup. The start before that, he excelled, pitching 6 strong with no ER striking out 8 Mariners and picking up the W. So far this season, Arrighetti is striking out LHH 23% of the time and RHH 29% of the time and if you look at his last 5 starts that number jumps all the way up to 35% vs RHH. He has done a good job limiting the damage, holding LHH to an xISO of just .132 and RHH .172. That said, much like his K-rate, in his last 5 starts he has really excelled vs RHH holding them to an xISO of .070 and an xwOBA of just .204. Tonight he will face a Giants lineup that will likely send 5 righties to the plate. The Giants strikeout numbers aren’t quite as heinous as some of the other lineups we are attacking tonight, but they still have a number of guys that K around 20% or higher vs RHP.
Now to the bats where we start things off with your #1 Optimal stack of the night in the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will face Rockies’ right hander Dakota Hudson. Hudson has not been great this season and has been a favorite target of ours. Hudson has allowed RHH an xwOBA of .366 and LHH .363. One of his favorite offerings to both sides of the plate this season has been his sinker, which has been absolutely slaughtered to the tune of an xwOBA of .449 for LHH and .421 for RHH. His season long numbers vs his last 5 starts indicate that no major adjustments have been made to his pitch selection despite the poor numbers. The guys we want to target tonight from the Twins lineup are guys that hit RHP pitching well, especially righty sinkers. Trevor Larnach, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis all have xISOs of .180 or higher, xwOBA of .375 or higher, and have historically hit sinkers well. These are the three you want to start your stacks with. From there, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Willi Castro are all solid options. In general, this Twins lineup should have plenty of opportunities tonight and their entire lineup is in play if you plan to go full stack.
The next stack is looking to be your #2 optimal option tonight based on their price/projection. That would be the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays will face Brewers’ righty Colin Rea. Rea has been hit hard this season by LHH allowing them an xISO of .241 and an xwOBA of .414. RHH have not had as much success, but his primary offering to them has been his sinker, which has yielded an xwOBA of .440, Similarly to Hudson, the recent data does not suggest any adjustments despite the poor performance with the pitch, which would lead us to believe that it is only a matter of time before RHH numbers creep up to the elite levels the LHH are currently at. We still prefer LHH vs Rea, but we are comfortable targeting RHH. Our top options from the Jays’ lineup would be Dalton Varsho, Bo Bichette, George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Spencer Horwitz (make sure he is in the lineup). The best of the rest from their lineup would be Davis Schnieder and Danny Jansen, but we are comfortable with you mixing and matching any in the Blue Jays lineup if you want a full stack.
Our #1 GPP stack tonight looks to be the New York Yankees. The top dogs in this lineup like Judge and Soto (if he plays) will get their fair share of ownership, but after that there are some great guys around them that can make an elite GPP stack. The Yankees will face Royals’ Seth Lugo. Lugo has put together quite the season so far and on the surface, his numbers are pretty damn solid. That said, if you dig a little deeper, you can poke some holes and see that there is some great opportunity for positive regression for Yankees bats tonight, especially Yankee righties. Lugo has held righties to an ISO of .163, but their xISO jumps all the way up to .211. Lefties on the other hand have an ISO of just .103 but an xISO of .153. The Yankees are loaded with righties that hit for power and that is exactly who we want to look at tonight. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton stand out the most boasting xISOs of .406 and .203 vs RHP respectively. Just behind them, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe both appear to be in solid spots. Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Austin Wells bat from the left side of the plate but all have had success vs RHP this season. Again, we are fine mixing and matching any Yankees if you plan on fully stacking them.
Our 2nd favorite GPP stack tonight comes from the same game and jumps out at us for similar reasons. The Kansas City Royals will face Yankees’ right hander Carlos Rodon. Like Lugo, on the surface, Rodon’s numbers look pretty solid, but if you dig a little deeper there is some opportunity to be had. RHH are sporting an xISO of .217 vs Rodon and that is exactly who we like to target from this KC offense. Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez, and Nelson Velazquez would be our favorites in that respect. From there we also don’t mind guys like Maikel Garcia, Hunter Renfroe, and Vinnie Pasquantino. Overall, we like what this Royals offense has the potential to do tonight and if stacking, don’t be afraid to mix and match anyone in their lineup.
The final GPP stack we will touch upon for tonight’s slate will be the Houston Astros. The Astros’ run projection does not jump off the page, but the matchup does. They will face San Francisco Giants’ lefty Kyle Harrison. Harrison lets up a ton of damage to RHH, allowing them an xISO of .215. When you look at the Astros’ lineup you can see how this can create some issues for Harrison this evening. The Astros’ are still without Kyle Tucker and as a result will send 8 RHH to the plate. Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Pena are our favorite righties to roster tonight. Jose Abreu and Chas McCormick also look to be in solid spots and can provide you with some salary relief. Finally, it would be ludicrous to write up an Astros stack and not include slugger Yordan Alvarez who is about as matchup proof as they come. Despite the left on left matchup, Alvarez still boasts an xISO of .217 vs southpaws and is definitely in play.