Top Pitchers: Strider (optimal – DK), Woodruff (#1 GPP DK, #2 optimal FD), Matz (#2 GPP), Ragans (#3 GPP)
Top Stacks: LAD (optimal), SEA (#1 GPP), HOU (#2 GPP)
Bad Chalk: Gonsolin, STL bats
Tonight brings us a very fun slate of MLB games that we think has the potential to really pop off the page. With the second game of the ATL/NYM double header missing on FD for the main slate, it has ramifications from a pitching perspective that will be quite important to note.
On DraftKings, Spencer Strider will be the clear optimal arm as he always is when he takes to the mound. He has exceptional K upside every time he takes to the mound and the Mets offense has been in shambles recently. Over the last thirty days he has a 37% K rate to lefties and a 39% K rate to righties. The issue for Strider as always is his price on DK. They have him priced in the mid-$12k range which takes up over a quarter of your entire cap space on just him. He has to absolutely smash and put up over 25 points in all likelihood in order for him to pay off that salary. The matchup is great, the K upside is there, and yet we probably would advise that you pivot off of him in GPP contests given his expected ownership and price point. In optimal/cash games, you play him and move on.
Tony Gonsolin is the next optimal arm to consider on both sites, although we don’t think the ownership is worth eating. He will be facing off with the horrid Colorado Rockies offense. Candidly, most of these guys have no business being on a big league roster at this point so they can make any pitcher look elite. Gonsolin has been far from good this year though as he has not scored more than 16.2 DK points in a start since June 13th. Lefties have a .221 xISO/.375 xwOBA and righties have a .343 xISO/.415 xwOBA against him while holding K rates of sub-20% to hitters on both sides of the plate. The Dodgers also have been quick to give him the hook at times as he has thrown more than 90 pitches in just two of his last eight starts. In 99% of cases, if a pitcher like this was projecting for as much ownership as Gonsolin, we would not touch him with a fifty foot pole. However, the Rockies offense is so bad right now that it just does keep him viable. In GPPs at least, we have significant concerns with his upside and would look elsewhere for sure. In cash he can be played just to block the chalk and go after a weak opponent.
Brandon Woodruff is back and didn’t skip a beat in his first start back from the IL last time out. With Strider sucking up a ton of ownership on DK, he is a superb GPP pivot on the site and he grades out as a strong optimal arm on FD without Strider’s presence. On the season, he has a massive 43% K rate against lefties with a .163 xISO/.260 xwOBA and a 27% K rate with a .065/.222 line against righties. This is great news against a team like the White Sox who will roll out four lefties in Benintendi, Moncada, Colas, and Grandal that all suck. Their righties won’t fare any better in this spot as that is the split that Woodruff has been far stingier against from a damage perspective. This is a superb spot for Woodruff and we should see his pitch count push 90 now that he has a game under his belt.
The next GPP arm that we love on both sites is Steven Matz. Matz gets to face off with the Kansas City Royals and he has been phenomenal since rejoining the rotation for the Cardinals. The Royals are projected to start eight righties against him which is a massive mistake that teams keep making. He has a much higher K rate against them than lefties (24% vs 14%) and he has absolutely shut them down with a .081 xISO/.225 xwOBA over the last thirty days. He has scored 19+ DK points in five of his six starts since rejoining the rotation. The Royals offense is nothing to be afraid of (unless you are Adam Wainwright) and this is a superb spot for Matz to keep things rolling. His price is much higher on FD which makes him a bit of a tougher play but the upside is still absolutely there based off of his recent performance.
Our final GPP arm to consider is on the opposite side of this game in Cole Ragans. Ragans joined the rotation for KC and has been a revelation. He has shredded both the Mets and the Red Sox in back to back starts. He carries a K rate of over 31% to hitters on both sides of the dish with lefties holding a .121 xISO/.202 xwOBA and righties holding a .042/.225 line against him. The best part about this is that the Cardinals bats are projected to carry significant ownership here which we think is a major mistake. With him continuing to be priced like a total scrub on both sites, he is one of the best point per dollar options to consider tonight and is an excellent GPP option to consider.
As we flip to the bats, there are two stacks that are sucking up the majority of the ownership on tonight’s slate. The first is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They are taking on Peter Lambert and the Rockies tonight. Lambert has just been plain bad this year as lefties have a .200 xISO/.387 xwOBA off his heater while righties have a .236/.332 line themselves. This is leading to a ton of ownership flocking to the Dodgers here. Bats like Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Mookie Betts are expected to be the chalkiest of the options here (and also the best). You can also add in Jason Heyward and James Outman who both crush righty fastballs. There is nothing not to like about the Dodgers here other than their expected ownership and they should be a stone cold lock in optimal/cash lineups.
We already touched on how great Ragans has been above, but we have to call out that the Cardinals bats are projected to be very chalky against him as they have the second-highest implied total on the slate. We honestly would not go here, but if you are inclined, the bats to target in your optimal lineups are O’Neill, Contreras, Edman, Goldy, and Arenado.
Moving along to GPPs, our top stack on tonight’s slate is the Seattle Mariners. We love targeting the Mariners against terrible lefties as they can load their lineup with terrific righties. We have a great chance to do that right here with Cole Irvin on the mound.
There is some major history here between Irvin and Seattle that dates back to his days with the Oakland A’s. In his first start of the 2021 season with them, he got hammered by Seattle and then said “I should not be giving up 10 hits to a team like that” in his post game presser. The Mariners pinned that to their bulletin board and proceeded to absolutely pulverize him into oblivion the rest of the season as he went 0-5 in five starts against them and was smashed in every single one. After the final start, he was interviewed and said “Well, it’s plain and simple, Baseball has a way of humbling itself, and to be honest, it goes back to the comments I made earlier in the season. They’re hungry every time they face me. They want to beat me into the ground and they did that every time I faced them. My job is to be able to go out there and execute, make good pitches, and I feel like I have at times, but not enough when they want it more.” It is clear there is no love lost here as a result.
Bringing it back to the present day, Irvin has been ravaged by righties this season. They have a .287 xISO/.397 xwOBA against him overall and a .341/.371 line against his heater. Seattle is projected to start nine righties against him tonight, many of whom crush lefty fastballs. Our favorite options are Geno Suarez (.358/.453), Teoscar Hernandez (.644/.591), Cal Raleigh (.264/.366), Tom Murphy (.210/.389), Ty France (.259/.410), and Julio Rodriguez (.357 xwOBA). Sam Haggerty is back from AAA and carries elite speed upside along with a .433 xwOBA against fastballs. He grades out as one of the better point per dollar options tonight. Lastly, Dylan Moore is excellent as well but it is unclear if he will play tonight as he stepped away from the team due to a personal matter and was scratched from last night’s lineup. Add in the fact that Felix Hernandez is getting inducted to the team Hall of Fame tonight with a packed house expected, and we love the upside they provide tonight for GPPs.
Our second GPP stack of the evening is the Houston Astros. After taking a sledgehammer to Detmers last night, we have a pitcher in Tyler Anderson who is a redux of Detmers taking the mound tonight. Anderson has allowed righties to smash his heater at a .234 xISO/.391 xwOBA clip which will not play well against a overwhelmingly righty-heavy Astros order. The issue for Anderson is that he has also been terrible against lefties as they have a .257/.719 line off his heater. This pretty much makes all the Astros come into play. Our favorites are Altuve (.317/.420), Alvarez (.294/.397), Tucker (.280/.462), Y. Diaz (.230 xISO), and Singleton (.889/.707). They have all the makings of a superb stack tonight and are flying significantly under the radar like their AL West comrades.
Conclusion: To wrap things up, Spencer Strider will be the clear optimal arm on DK. He is very expensive though, which calls into question his upside, price considered. Tony Gonsolin is projected for significant ownership but has terrible numbers. His matchup with the Rockies keeps him in play. Our favorite GPP arms are Woodruff, Matz, and Ragans. On the hitting side, the Dodgers are the clear optimal bats. We would stay away from the Cardinals given their expected ownership against Ragans. The Mariners and Astros are our top GPP options. Best of luck tonight!