This line is +138 on Tailgate, good to +110.
Logan Webb is the better starter on paper, but he hasn’t been nearly as dominant against left-handed hitters this season, and Washington’s lefties match up well against his pitch mix. On the other side, Miles Mikolas isn’t a pitcher we’re excited to back, but the difference between these offenses is hard to ignore. The Nationals have been one of the better lineups in baseball this year, consistently generating quality contact and run production, while the Giants have lagged well behind in most offensive metrics. Even giving San Francisco the edge on the mound, the gap with the bats is large enough that Washington still deserves to be favored in this matchup.