You currently can find this bet for -115 odds on DraftKings. We like it to -140.
This game has all the makings of an offensive explosion. It is going to be crazy warm and humid in Fenway this afternoon and the winds are blowing out to left-center field at around 15 mph consistently. Josh Winckowski will be on the mound for Boston and he has been quite bad this season. Lefties have a .385 xwOBA off his cutter and a .270/.393 line off his sinker, which he throws them a combined 63% of the time. Righties have a .240 xISO off his sinker and a .407 xwOBA off the cutter, which he throws a combined 76% of the time. The Pads are loaded with good options to stack up including Arraez (.230/.434), Profar (.193/.372), Cronenworth (.370/.487), Machado (.231/.396), and Merrill (.368/.523). With the weather cooperating, this is a very strong five-man unit to look to.
On the other side, the Red Sox are going up against Matt Waldon and the Padres. Waldron is a knuckleballer who has looked quite good of late. However, the weather in Boston is a hitter’s paradise and that bodes exceptionally poorly for a fluttering knuckleball. On top of that, lefties also have a .196/.357 line off his heater, which he throws the most of any non-knuckleball pitch to them. Waldron is projected to see seven lefties in this spot, many of which crush the heater. Duran (.264/.389), Hamilton (.268/.370), Abreu (.202 xISO), Devers (.279/.392), and Yoshida (.379 xwOBA) grade out quite well. However, the reality is that thanks to the weather, pretty much anybody is in play here as the ball should be flying all over the yard. Lock in the over!