Captain: Senga (Optimal), Ohtani, Freeman, Lindor, Soto, Young (value)
Flex: Alonso, Nimmo, Torrens, Vientos, Baty, McNeil, Muncy, Conforto, Edman, Betts, Hernandez, Stanek (value), Vesia (value)
Kodai Senga is the optimal captain option on this showdown slate. His underlying stats (xStats) are outstanding: he holds left-handed hitters (LHH) to a .130 xISO and .323 xwOBA, and right-handed hitters (RHH) to a .088 xISO and .255 xwOBA. His strikeout rates are around league average, with lefties striking out at a 22.4% clip and righties slightly higher at 23.9%. There are five hitters with strikeout rates above 20%, which presents decent upside. Given his elite xStats, Senga is a strong captain option, particularly in cash games.
The stance we’re taking today is to fade the Dodgers’ right-handed hitters, given Senga’s success against them according to his xStats. If we’re not going to roster any Dodgers RHH, then we’re going all-in on the Mets, who face Landon Knack. Knack has struggled this year, largely due to a fastball that gets hit hard by both sides of the plate. That makes Francisco Lindor (.251 xISO / .400 xwOBA), Juan Soto (.385 xISO / .491 xwOBA), Pete Alonso (.538 xISO / .483 xwOBA), Brandon Nimmo (.232 xISO / .356 xwOBA), Luis Torrens (.358 xwOBA), and Brett Baty (.240 xISO) strong targets. Jared Young (.363 xwOBA) is a good value play who has hit right-handed pitching well. Lastly, Mark Vientos (.214 ISO) and Jeff McNeil (.250 ISO) are viable options if they fit your build. We’re happy to fade the ownership that Landon Knack is currently getting.
Since we’ll need some Dodgers exposure, we’ll target left-handed hitters who hit the fastball well, as that’s Senga’s one vulnerable pitch. Shohei Ohtani (.483 xISO / .524 xwOBA), Freddie Freeman (.324 xISO / .374 xwOBA), Max Muncy (.190 xISO / .373 xwOBA), Michael Conforto (.382 xwOBA), and Tommy Edman (.195 xISO / .405 xwOBA) are the preferred options from Los Angeles.
As for relievers, the only ones we’d consider are Ryne Stanek and Alex Vesia, who appear most likely to enter the game based on reliever usage.