Pitchers: Miller (Optimal #1), Sasaki (Optimal #2), Schwellenbach (GPP #1), Pfaadt (GPP #2), Bido (Value)
Hitters: HOU (Optimal #1), LAD (Optimal #2),
NYM (GPP #1), ATL (GPP #2), BOS (GPP #3) CHC (GPP #4),
Weather: All Clear!
The first optimal pitcher on this slate is Bryce Miller who looks to come into the season even better than he did last year! Last season he K’d LHH to the tune of 22% and RHH to the tune of 26%. He now gets the luxury of facing 6 hitters with K rates above 18% including 5 in the 20’s. He has been impeccable holding RHH to a (.134xISO/.260xwOBA). The only negative has been that lefties do touch him for a (.246xISO/.331xwOBA) rate but he went into the offseason addressing his struggles against lefties with a new cutter, so we could see improved results. In addition, only Lawrence Butler (.215/.348) and Tyler Soderstrom (.257/.355) hit lefties well last year so they are the potential threats in this lineup.
The next optimal choice is Roki Sasaki who comes into his second start with a favorable matchup. We just saw a righty in Yamamoto punch out 10 Tiger batters so the K upside for Sasaki is there today. His only issue has been the walks but he can offset that if he lands the strikeouts. In his extremely small sample size, Sasaki K’s RHH at a 28% clip and LHH at a 14% clip. The Tigers bring up a whopping 8 hitters with above a 20% K rate. Sasaki did a fantastic job of not giving up hits so he remains a great play unless he shows otherwise as the season goes on.
Our first GPP is going to be Spencer Schwellenbach who takes on the San Diego Padres. Schwelly had a phenomenal year and will look to carry the momentum into his first start this year. He K’s RHH at a 29% clip and LHH to a 21% clip. Excluding Arraez, every other Padre boasts a K rate above 17.9% so it’s not far fetched to say that Schwelly can rack up the K’s today. His only bugaboo is the (.378xwOBA) he gives up lefties with fastballs, which puts Merrill (.376xwOBA) and Cronenworth (.372xwOBA) in play as potential threats. Aside from that the X stats look great for Spencer so you can fire him up in GPPs as he holds both sides under a (.155xISO/.315xwOBA).
Our next GPP pitcher is Brandon Pfaadt who takes on the Chicago Cubs. Pfaddt K’s RHH at a 29% rate and lefties at a 19% rate. In a small sample size this year, the Cubs bring 7 batters with K rates above 21% which gives our guy a lot of upside today in GPPs if their high K rates stay true. The X stats excluding the xISO to his fastball have been elite so he can limit the damage today if his fastball doesn’t cost him. He’s held both sides under a .175xISO which is pretty good. Excluding one very poor spring training start, he was flawless in the other three starts and comes into this start looking to show that he is more like the 3.60 FIP pitcher than his 4.71 ERA showed last year. If he reverts to his old form however, we’ll provide the Cubs hitters to target in the hitting stacks. Both sides of this high ceiling, low floor pitcher have potential to win you GPPs.
Our value pitcher is going to be Osvaldo Bido who will look to continue the dominance of the A’s starting pitchers. If Seattle continues to look lost at the plate then Bido is a solid play with his 20% K rates to lefties and 28% K rates to righties. In a small 2025 sample size, the Mariners have been very swing happy as they bring 6 hitters with above a 20% K rate. In addition the X stats are impeccable as he holds LHH to a (.117xISO/.269xwOBA) and RHH to (0.071xISO/.247xwOBA). Great value to target here with Bido!
Moving on to our optimal hitting stacks we begin with the Houston Astros who take on Griffin Canning. His problem is that his fastball has gotten nuked as he allowed LHH to hit it to the tune of a (.248xISO/.380xwOBA) and RHH to hit it to the tune of (.254xISO/.371xwOBA). Jose Altuve (.240/.356), Yordan Alvarez (.222/.393), Christian Walker (.315/.391), Jeremy Pena (.331xwOBA), Victor Caratini (.354xwOBA), and Cam Smith (.358xwOBA) are all hitters that can mash the fastball.
The next optimal stack are the Los Angeles Dodgers, who look to extend their winning streak to 5, against Reese Olson. Now Olson has some elite X stats, but so did Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and we saw him falter against a great Dodger team. The Dodgers thrive against RHP as seen by how much success their hitters have had. Shohei Ohtani (.398/.471), Mookie Betts (.342xwOBA), Freddie Freeman (.198/.382), Teoscar Hernandez (.217/.331), Max Muncy (.215/.362), and Michael Conforto (.217/.341) all had success against RHP last year. Guys like Will Smith, Tommy Edman, and Andy Pages are viable if Olson doesn’t last long because the Detroit bullpen has been bad.
Our first GPP stack of the day are the New York Mets who take on Spencer Arrighetti. The one downside to Arrighetti is the fastball pitch which gets touched by both sides and this Mets team has some fastball hitters. Francisco Lindor (.256/.376), Juan Soto (.488/.544), Pete Alonso (.325/.372), Brandon Nimmo (.368xwOBA), Mark Vientos (.362/.444), Luis Torrens (.394/.489), Tyrone Taylor (.210/.338), and Jose Siri (.276/.331) have all hit the fastball well last year making this stack an interesting way to fade the Arrighetti ownership.
The Atlanta Braves are the next stack we are targeting as they face Randy Vasquez who has struggled against LHH. The fastball is what has caused LHH to have so much success against Vasquez. That would make Jurickson Profar (.204/.377), Matt Olson (.230/.369), Ozzie Albies (.212/.342), Michael Harris (.347xwOBA), Jarred Kelenic (.203/.344) and Drake Baldwin the hitters to prioritize. You can also use guys like Austin Riley (.231/.353) and Marcell Ozuna (.307/.416) who have simply hit RHP very well.
We know Boston let down a lot of people, but they tend to feast off RHP so we like going right back to them here against Mahle. We are taking the strong X stats of Boston against RHP over the small sample size of dominance with Tyler Mahle’s X stats. Jarren Duran (.201/.355), Tristan Casas (.226/.329), Wilyer Abreu (.208/.327), and Rafael Devers (.296/.404) all had success against RHP last year, but we don’t trust Devers at all right now so we wouldn’t use him. Mahle has also been a reverse splits guy giving up damage with his FB to RHH. That would bring Alex Bregman (.195/348) and Kristian Campbell into play here as well.
We mentioned earlier that if Pfaadt returns to old form there is a path to success for the Cubs, which is why they are our last stack. Pfaadt gave up damage with his FB to both sides of the plate and the Cubs have some fastball mashers. Ian Happ (.312/.417), Kyle Tucker (.389/.468), Seiya Suzuki (.310/.382), Michael Busch (.262/.355), Dansby Swanson (.201/.344), PCA (.189xISO), Nico Hoerner (.351xISO) and Miguel Amaya (.174/.365) all had success against the fastball last year. Something has to give between the Cubs and Pfaadt so we list both sides with slight lean to Pfaadt. These Cubs pieces make for fine one-offs though if you want to use any, or a full on leverage stack.