Pitchers: deGrom (Optimal #1), Ray (Optimal #2), Nola (GPP #1), Ober (GPP #2), Bradley (Optimal Value)
Hitting: LAA (Optimal #1), MIA (Optimal Value), NYY (GPP #1), TEX (GPP #2), PIT (GPP #3), MIN (GPP #4)
Weather: SF/CIN, MIN/STL, LAA/CWS
We have a fun Sunday slate on our hands with interesting hitting spots and fun pitching options, so let’s dive right in!
Jacob deGrom comes into our optimal list with his usual high K rates in the small sample size he had last year. He K’d lefties at a 33% clip and righties at a 30% clip. That certainly means at least 2 guaranteed K’s against Devers LOL. But in all seriousness, this Red Sox lineup gives us 7 hitters with K rates above 20%, which gives deGrom massive upside in this spot. The minor caution is that in the 74 pitches against lefties, he was pretty bad with his slider and fastball which he threw a combined 80% of the time. Luckily there’s a chance he won’t see many of them and that would mean that he can neutralize RHH with his rates of (.050 xISO/.218 xwOBA).
Robbie Ray is our next optimal pitcher to target as he takes on the Cincinnati Reds to begin the year. The K rates from Ray last year were fantastic as he punched out lefties at a 24% clip and righties at a 35% clip. Today he gets to face 8 hitters with over a 19% K rate which makes for a nice matchup. He has also been elite against righties which he has shut down to the tune of (.113 xISO/.263 xwOBA). His weakness is the lefties but Gavin Lux and TJ Friedl did not hit well against lefties last year according to their X stats. This is a sweet spot to love with Robbie Ray!
Our first GPP pitcher of the slate is Aaron Nola, who takes on the Washington Nationals. He punches out lefties to the tune of 20% and righties to the tune of 27%. Nola gets the luxury of facing a Nats lineup with 7 hitters that boast a K rate above 19.8%, which gives him excellent upside today. In addition, the X stats are good for Nola as he holds both sides of the plate under a (.155 xISO/.314 xwOBA). Lock in Nola as the top GPP play of the slate.
Our second GPP pitcher is Bailey Ober, who takes on the St. Louis Cardinals. His K rates are nearly identical as he strikes out lefties at a 26% rate and righties to a 27% rate. He gets to likely face seven Cardinal hitters with K rates above 17%, which includes five above 24% which makes this a nice spot for him. In addition, he has held both sides of the plate to under a rate of (.178 xISO/.290 xwOBA) which means the damage should likely be kept at a minimum today which makes him worth using in GPPs
The optimal value of this slate is Taj Bradley, who is drawing massive ownership and for good reason. He carries K rates of 27% to LHH and 25% to RHH. Now he gets to open his season with a K happy Rockie team that brings 8 players with above a 21% K rate which makes this a salivating spot to target. Typically this would be a solid spot to fade him given his poor X stats with the fastball, but only 2 Rockies players pose threats to that pitch according to the X stats, in Hunter Goodman (.408/.392) and Michael Toglia (.311/.376). With the rest of Bradley’s pitches looking great, we expect him to put on a rather dominating performance today.
The optimal team on this slate is the Los Angeles Angels as they take on Davis Martin. The fastball is the pitch Martin struggles with when it comes to the xwOBA department. Taylor Ward (.420), Nolan Shanuel (.327), Mike Trout (.431), Jorge Soler (.433), Yoan Moncada (.385), Logan O’Hoppe (.313), Luis Rengifo (.341), Kyren Paris (.487), and Kevin Newman (.314) all carry respectable xwOBA stats against that pitch, making them excellent targets for a hitting stack today.
The value stack of the day comes with the Miami Marlins who take on Andrew Heaney. The X stats aren’t all that cheap but due to their price points and matchup against a bad Pittsburgh bullpen, they make for the top Pt/$ stack. In terms of lefties Heaney struggles with his fastball which Kyle Stowers hits to the tune of a (.264 xISO) and Griffin Conine a (.351 xISO). The fastball against righties for Heaney gets hit to the tune of a (.178 xISO) which leaves room for it to get hit. Nick Fortes so far this year has hit it to a (.706 xISO) so he must be seeing that pitch well so far along with Jonah Bride who sports a (.411 xISO). Otto Lopez is playing some hot baseball and sports a (.188 xISO) and Derek Hill mashed that pitch last year to the tune of a (.294 xISO). Lastly, Xavier Edwards is always viable due to his base stealing ability if he manages to reach base.
Sooo did the New York Yankees unlock an interesting hack with the new bats they sported yesterday? We are not sure yet, but if there is any merit to the bats, then we are going to go back to the well with them against Aaron Civale for GPPs. To begin with, he gives up a (.383 xwOBA) with his sinker to RHH which prioritizes Aaron Judge (.474 xwOBA) and Paul Goldschmidt (.378 xwOBA) who both hit that pitch very well. Civale throws his cutter to LHH 41% of the time so with the new bats and knowledge of his primary pitch, it is likely the Yankees can hone in on it. That would mean guys like Austin Wells (.375 xwOBA), Jazz Chisholm (.316/.426), Ben Rice (.463/.449), and Oswaldo Cabrera (.386 xwOBA) are brought into play as well. The X stats don’t align very well for the other guys but Cody Bellinger, Jasson Dominguez, and Anthony Volpe are viable considering the Brewers bullpen is pretty taxed.
Our next GPP stack are the Texas Rangers who take on Ryan Fitts. He tends to struggle with the fastball against RHH which means Marcus Semien (.154/.338), Wyatt Langford (.216/.367), Adolis Garcia (.182xISO), and Jake Burger (.478/.494) are the threats to prioritize. The LHH are held in check for the most part but he still throws that pitch 49% of the time to them so we expect the Rangers to be aware of that. That would mean hitters like Joc Pederson (.241/.351) and Corey Seager (.395/.398) are in play here as well.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, who take on Max Meyer, also look solid for GPPs. His weakness is the fastball which tends to get mashed by both sides of the plate. Adam Frazier (.332 xwOBA), Bryan Reynolds (.303/.413), Tommy Pham (.208/.383), O‘Neil Cruz (.325/.461), Joey Bart (.373/.450), Jack Suwinski (.231/.365), and Isaiah Kiner–Falefa (.334 xwOBA) all have seen the fastball very well last year.
Our last GPP stack of the day comes with Minnesota as the Twins take on Andre Pallante. Now the X stats last year were good with the fastball, but one key note is that the velocity of that pitch is down 1.7 mph from last year, which has lead to some spring training struggles. If those struggles continue onto the regular season, then this could be a troubling matchup with the Twins carrying some FB mashers. Matt Wallner (.287/.373), Carlos Correa (.199/.401), Byron Buxton (.417/.473), Trevor Larnach (.308/.450), Ryan Jeffers (.169/.339), Willie Castro (.225/.385), Jose Miranda (.200/398) and Harrison Bader (.337 xwOBA) all saw that pitch well last year. This is an interesting spot to be early on the potential struggles for Pallante. Best of luck!