Pitchers: Nola (Optimal #1), Varland (Optimal #2), Bibee (Optimal #3), Gray (GPP #1), Cabrera (GPP #2), Kirby (FD GPP)
Hitters: HOU (Optimal #1), PHI (Optimal #2), Coors (FD Optimal #3), CIN (GPP #1), BAL (GPP #2), KCR (GPP #3),
Weather: All clear!
Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies tonight against a White Sox lineup that has been flailing against the Phillies’ starting pitching all series. Spencer Turnbull and Zack Wheeler allowed just two hits over 14.1 innings in the first two games of the series. Nola struggled in his first start but has rebounded since posting xISOs under .180 against both sides of the plate. He’s striking left-handed hitters out at just a 10.2% rate this season but that seems more like an early season blip than a trend. He projects as our top arm on the slate today and is a good play in all formats. The top value arm on the board today is Louis Varland. He’s been hit hard to start the season, but his 3.62 xFIP is the best of any pitcher on today’s slate and his BABIP has been extremely high to start the season. On a weak pitching slate he’s too cheap to not be heavily considered on DraftKings and he comes in as easily our top PT/$ arm. He’ll probably see quite a few lefties from the Tigers and has struck out nearly 27% of the left-handed bats he’s faced over the last two seasons. He’s another solid play in all formats today. Tanner Bibee is another arm that has faced some bad BABIP luck this season and gets to face the A’s today. This lineup features six hitters with K rates over 24% against right-handed arms over the last two seasons and has the 2nd-lowest implied total on the slate. Bibee doesn’t have quite as big an upside as Nola but he’s another good cash game option today.
The GPP arms are much murkier today. Sonny Gray is the top option here despite the fact that he’s still working back towards a full workload. He’s getting closer though and without a ton of great options on this slate we think he’s palatable today. He’s been great so far for St. Louis with xISOs under .140 and xwOBAs under .300 allowed to both sides of the plate this season. He has his K rate up to 28.2% from 24.4% last season as well. The Brewers come into this slate with the 3rd-lowest implied run total on the day and Gray projects as our SP3 in terms of points. He’s a good GPP option on this slate. Edward Cabrera was fantastic for the Marlins in his first start of the season, racking up 10 strikeouts in six innings of one run ball against the Giants. He has some nice upside in this matchup as he’s held K rates over 26% against both sides of the plate during his time in the MLB and the Cubs lineup has six hitters with K rates over 24% against righties over the last two seasons. On FanDuel George Kirby will take the ball for the Mariners at Coors Field. He’s a solid GPP play here against a weak Rockies lineup on what should be a cold day at the ballpark. Kirby’s been hurt by bad BABIP luck early in the season but his peripheral numbers are good. He has a chance for some K upside as well against a Rockies lineup with 7 hitters striking out at a 24% clip of higher against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.
The Astros project as the most popular offense on the slate today in their matchup against Mitchell Parker and the Nationals. Parker limited the Dodgers to just two runs in five innings in his first MLB start. He’s pitched to xFIPs in the high-3’s or low-4’s during his minor league career. The Astros have good numbers against his fastball/curveball combo with Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve projecting to be two of the most popular plays on the slate. We also really like Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena who have xISOs above .370 and xwOBAs over .550 against four-seam fastballs this season. This is a nice stack in all formats today. The Phillies offense has taken advantage of some good pitching matchups this week with five or more runs in each of their last four games. Nick Nastrini allowed just two runs in five innings against the Royals in his first MLB start but gave up some hard hit balls and a 15.4% barrel percentage in the start. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper all hold xISOs over .230 against right-handed pitching this season while Brandon Marsh has outstanding numbers against the fastball (.313/.407) and changeup (.698/.626) this season which is the mix that the lefties in this lineup can expect from Nastrini. This lineup has massive upside and looks like a great play in all formats today. On FanDuel we have a matchup in Coors where the weather doesn’t look super conducive to a huge run scoring environment. Still this stack is a viable one. We like the Mariners bats a bit better overall, but Nolan Jones and Ryan MacMahon are our top projecting bats from the Rockies side of things. Julio Rodriguez projects a our #2 overall bat on FanDuel as well as the highest-owned bat on the slate.
The Reds look like a cheaper and lower-owned stack on this slate. They’ll face Jose Soriano from the Angels. He has electric stuff but has issues controlling it so they could get him out early and get into the bullpen with the 8th-worst xFIP in the league. Soriano allowed a .192/.344 line to right-handed bats last season with Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand projecting as two of the top bats in this offense for us. Elly De La Cruz also projects well for us and holds a .393/.458 line against right-handed pitching this season. We like the Reds in GPPs today. The Orioles kinda fall into the Braves category today as a supremely talented offense that isn’t projected to be very high-owned on this slate. It’s not like they are facing a dominant pitcher in Seth Lugo but he can limit damage a bit, but his xISOs did get up around .180 against both sides of the plate last season. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman project as the top bats from this lineup for us but we also like Ryan O’Hearn and Colton Cowser who have hit righties for xISOs over .280 and xwOBAs over .410 against righties this season. They may be the most overlooked offense on the slate today. We also like their opponents’ offense, the Royals. Baltimore is sending Cole Irvin to the mound today and last season he allowed a .237/.360 line to right-handed hitters. Bobby Witt Jr. is our top play from this lineup and holds a .523/.456 line against lefties early in the season after hitting them for a .285/.355 line last season. We also like Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez who have hit lefties for xISOs over .230 over the last two seasons. Hunter Renfroe looks like a decent value play from this lineup. He’s back to hitting lefties to start the season for a .259/.361 line and is pretty cheap. This is another solid stack to use in GPPs today!