Pitchers: Skubal (Optimal #1), Suarez (Optimal #2), Dane Dunning (Optimal Value #3), Marcus Stroman (GPP #1), Lynn (GPP #2), Wacha (GPP #3)
Hitters: ATL (Optimal #1), BAL (Optimal #2), NYY (Optimal #3), LAD (GPP #1), TEX (GPP #2), MIA (GPP #3)
Bad Chalk: Kevin Gausman
Weather: KCR/DET could start in delay but should play through
To start this breakdown, we want to talk about Kevin Gausman. He checks in as our SP2 in points today and projects to be the 2nd-highest owned pitcher on the slate behind Skubal. It’s not a great slate for pitching but Gausman’s matchup against the Dodgers is brutal and he hasn’t been great this season. His K rate is down to 18.9% from 30.2% last season and he’s allowing a .249 xISO/.405 xwOBA line to righties and a .189/.371 line to lefties. The Dodgers have solid career numbers off of him too with a career .229 xISO and .379 xwOBA against him as a team. In cash games, we’d understand maybe betting on the talent since there aren’t a ton of other fantastic options, but in GPPs, we’d fade him and even stack the Dodgers against him for more leverage.
Tarik Skubal is our top arm today, projecting for the most points on both FanDuel and DraftKings for us. Skubal has started the season great with K rates over 25% to both sides of the plate as well as xwOBAs under .290 allowed to both sides. The Royals come into this slate with the lowest implied run total on the slate and outside of their top three hitters, don’t have many bats that can hurt lefties. He’s by far the top arm today and is the best play in all formats.
Albert Suarez has pitched extremely well through his first two starts for Baltimore. He’s thrown 11.1 innings of scoreless ball, allowing just nine base runners and striking out nine over that time. He got up to 90 pitches in his last start, so his leash shouldn’t be too much of a worry against Oakland today. The A’s lineup has a 28% K rate against right-handed pitchers this season so we could see room for more K upside from Suarez in this matchup than we have in his previous starts.
Dane Dunning ranks as our top PT/$ arm on DraftKings today and could be a decent salary saver against Cincinnati. His K rate this season is up to 25% from 19% last season and even though the Reds do have some talent in their lineup, five of their bats strike out at rates of 24% or higher against right-handed pitching. We like Dunning as a value option today.
Marcus Stroman will get the ball for the Yankees against the Brewers today. He projects as our SP3 for points today but is a bit expensive so won’t see as much ownership as some of the other top arms. The Brewers don’t hit sinkers well outside of Hoskins and Contreras, so Stroman should be able to use his primary weapon to neutralize this lineup today. This is a great matchup for Stroman and we really like him in GPPs today.
Lance Lynn has bounced back a bit so far with the Cardinals. He has his xwOBAs under .350 against both sides of the plate but has been hit for some power with xISOs over .200 to both sides of the plate. We do like his matchup against the Mets today as they don’t have great numbers against his fastball/cutter/slider mix. There are only three bats in the Mets’ lineup that have an xISO over .200 against one of those pitches, and none of those hitters have those numbers against more than one of them, Lynn has a lot of risk with the power that he can give up, but we think he can survive in this matchup today and think he’s a decent GPP play.
Finally, we have Michael Wacha. He’s been solid for KC with xISOs under .160 and xwOBAs under .330 to both sides of the plate. He’ll see five left-handed bats from Detroit today and he’s striking out lefties at a 26.4% clip this season. He shouldn’t see much ownership today and looks to have a good matchup against the Tigers.
The Braves have a great matchup against Ben Lively today and look like the top offense on the slate. Lively was crushed by lefties last season for a .244/.367 line and even though he allowed a .161/.315 line to righties, there were some red flags we can attack there. His slider was his most used pitch against right-handed bats and it was hit for a .192 xISO. His fastball was hit even harder to the tune of a .322 xISO. Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Ozzie Albies project as two of the top bats on the slate for us and we like Matt Olson as well who has a .211/.411 line against right-handed pitchers this season. We like this stack in all formats today.
The Orioles matchup nicely against Paul Blackburn from the Athletics. Baltimore’s lefties have great numbers against Blackburn’s fastball/changeup mix with Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn sticking out as two top plays. Cedric Mullins also projects well for us and hits changeups for a .329 xISO on the season so far. This offense has a ton of upside and we like them in all formats.
The Yankees bats project really well for us and should be one of the more popular stacks today. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge project as two of the highest-scoring bats for us on the slate today. Alex Verdugo looks like a solid PT/$ play from this lineup while Anthony Volpe brings some stolen base upside.
The Dodgers are a GPP stack that we’re excited about using to get leverage against Gausman at high ownership. We mentioned their career numbers against Gausman above, but they also come into this game with six hitters in their lineup with an xwOBA over.350 against righties on the season. Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts will see some ownership and project as our two top bats from this offense. Names like Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy project to be much lower-owned as does Will Smith. Andy Pages is an interesting value with a .229/.361 line against righties this season. We really like this stack in GPPs today.
The Rangers should be low-owned and face Andrew Abbott today. Corey Seager is our top projected bat for them today and although he’s off to a slower start against lefties in a small sample size this season, he had a .238 xISO/.357 xwOBA line against them last season. Abbott throws his fastball for over half of his pitches to righties and is allowing a .218/.374 line on it this season. Marcus Semien has crushed fastballs from lefties for a .475/.502 line this season and has a .247/.416 line against them overall. Wyatt Langford and Ezequiel Duran project as the best values from this lineup for us.
The final stack we want to talk about is the Marlins for value. They face Patrick Corbin whose xISOs are creeping up toward .200 and his xwOBAs against both lefties and righties are over .350. Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell both have nice power upside from this lineup. Bell has a ridiculous .627 career xISO against Corbin in 18 career plate appearances. Jazz Chisholm Jr. projects as our top bat from this lineup and could be on the move on the basepaths against Corbin who has given up a bunch of stolen bases in his career. We like them as a cheap mini stack to add into your lineup.