Pitching: Miller (#1 Optimal), deGrom (#2 Optimal), Peralta (#1 GPP), Crochet (#2 GPP), Gusto (value GPP)
Hitting: ATL (Coors, optimal), MIL (#1 GPP), BOS (#2 GPP), SEA (#3 GPP), LAD mini LHH (#4 GPP)
Weather: No major concerns for mid game delay or PPD tonight!
We have a full 10 game slate on this fine Tuesday night, so let’s get right into it!
Starting with the pitching, your top two optimal arms tonight are neck in neck in terms of point/$ ranking and ownership, especially on DK. We will start with Bryce Miller, who has a slightly better point/$ projection than deGrom and, as a result, is seeing a slight lead in his projected ownership as well. There is some caution around Miller as his traditional stats do not look great and he is yet to pitch into the 6th inning this season. That said, his X stats tell a different story and he could be in line for some positive regression here. Miller is striking out LHH 26% of the time and holding them to a .088 xISO while striking out RHH at a 20% rate and a .077/.296 line. Tonight, he gets a matchup with the Los Angeles Angels who have cooled down quite a bit after a hot start to the season. They strikeout second most in the league just behind the Rockies and have done it 12 times per game over their last 3 contests. They do have some power threats in the lineup, but given Miller’s strength has been elite xISO against numbers, we feel confident that he should be able to keep the Angels in the park this evening.
The other optimal arm tonight, Jacob deGrom, gets a bit of a tougher matchup against the Athletics. Similarly to Miller, the length for deGrom is a little bit of a concern. He has only pitched out of the 5th inning once this year and has only thrown more than 90 pitches in one start. It certainly seems like the Rangers are taking a cautious approach with the often injured veteran, which is something to keep an eye on. For cash games, he is viable due to a high floor, but his inability to consistently go deep in games limits his upside a bit, giving him less appeal in GPP contests. He comes into this one with elite numbers against RHH, striking them out 26% of the time and holding them to a .034/.171 line. LHH, on the other hand, continue to be a problem for deGrom as he is allowing them a .291/.373 line. This jumps out at us a bit as there are some thumpers in the Athletics lineup that hit from the left side. We are always trying to find an angle for leverage off chalk arms and we feel we have a decent opportunity to do that tonight. Lawrence Butler (.192/.323), and Tyler Soderstrom (.314/.423) make for great one offs or a mini leverage stack. We would avoid a full A’s stack as deGrom is elite against RHH and should have his way with them this evening.
Your top GPP pitching option tonight is not the single digit gem we covet in these types of contests, but he is a very solid option with a similar projection to the highest owned arms at a slight fraction of the ownership. Freddy Peralta gets a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who should not pose much of a threat for him tonight. Peralta has been solid, striking out LHH 22% of the time and holding them to a .116/.290 line. RHH are striking out 30% of the time against Peralta and hold a measly .104/.247 line against him. Peralta will take on his fair share of ownership, but at the time of writing this, he is third behind Miller and deGrom. He takes a slight hit in point/$ when compared to the other two, but nothing significant. We think the matchup and advanced metrics make him a full go in your GPP lineups tonight.
Another GPP arm we love tonight is in a similar spot to Peralta where he does not project quite as well as the optimal arms, but as a result has his ownership a bit lower than we would typically expect for a pitcher of his caliber. Enter Garrett Crochet of the Boston Red Sox as he takes on the Toronto Blue Jays. Crochet has had a fine start to the season, but by his standards, has underperformed just a tad and is coming off his worst outing of the year against the Mariners. This is, however, a spot we like to exploit as it is only a matter of time before Crochet puts together a complete slate breaking performance. His K rates and X stats do not point towards any sort of struggles for the lefty hurler as he is getting RHH 29% of the time and holding them to a .136/.308 line. LHH have really struggled as he is striking them out at an elite 39% rate and holding them to a .044/.150 line. The matchup is pretty middle of the road as Toronto definitely has a few guys that can do some damage, but top to bottom, it should be a team Crochet is more than capable of handling. We love this buy low spot for Crochet, who should see ownership in the teens on DK and single digits on FD.
If you are looking to save some salary at the pitcher position in GPPs tonight, the projections love Houston Astros’ right hander Ryan Gusto. There is certainly some risk baked into rostering a guy like Gusto, as he has not been good against LHH this season, allowing them a .287/.396 line. RHH, on the other hand, have been held to a much more modest .142/.251 line. His matchup this evening with the Tigers only has a couple of lefty hitters that really concern us in Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. If he can work his way around those two, he could be in line for a solid outing. With K rates of 20% or higher to both sides of the plate, he can also rack up some strikeouts adding to his upside. At his discounted price, he does not need to go crazy to pay it off and can allow you to spend up in other places whether that be on your other SP or some extra stud bats.
Your optimal stack tonight is the Atlanta Braves as they take on the Rockies in Coors Field. The Braves implied total currently sits at 6.6 runs, which is an entire run more than any other team on the slate. Not only are they playing at high altitude, we also have the wind blowing out around 10 mph for most of the game. If you’ve been doing this long enough, you’re well aware of how this goes. They will be very popular and take on a ton of ownership. It is up to you if you want to eat that ownership and get different elsewhere, or roll the dice and hope for them to bust. We do try our best to poke holes in this spot as we rarely encourage you to roster players at ownership this high in a sport as volatile as baseball, so let’s take a look at the numbers. Tonight, they will face Rockies’ right hander German Marquez who has not been great against lefties in the early going, or in his career for that matter. Through a decent 2025 sample, he is allowing them a slash line of .216/.370 which spells trouble against guys like Matt Olson (.279/.399), Ozzie Albies (.263/.345 vs FB), and Michael Harris (.206/.381 vs FB), who all have solid numbers against right handed pitchers or right handed fastballs this season. Marquez has been a bit better against RHH however, holding them to a .097 xISO despite a .362 xwOBA. That said, he will face off with some solid right on right hitters tonight with the likes of Austin Riley (.214/.337), Marcell Ozuna (.276/.440), Sean Murphy (.236/.365), and Eli White (.244/.384) all boasting solid numbers against righty pitchers.. Finally we have to mention Alex Verdugo, who carries an xwOBA of .382 against right handed pitchers, hits from the left side, and pops as one of the best point/$ plays. Overall, in cash games, you likely have no other choice than to eat the Coors chalk, but in GPPs, we all know the reward that comes with fading this spot if they were to bust, so let’s take a look at some potential pivots.
One spot that really jumps out at us is the Milwaukee Brewers as they take on Bryse Wilson and the Chicago White Sox. In the early going, Wilson has been tattooed by RHH allowing them a .332/.442 line. He has been a bit better against LHH so far this year, but is still allowing them a .178/.403 slash line and in a much larger sample in 2024 got pieced up to the tune of .215/.381. Jackson Chourio (.218/.314), Christian Yelich (.233/.401), Brice Turang (.198/.413), Wilson Contreras (.214/.365), and Rhys Hoskins (.378 xwOBA) stand out the most based on their numbers against righty pitchers. In addition, Joey Ortiz and Isaac Collins are very cheap and stand out in the projections should they make the lineup. We have seen the Brewers ceiling as an offense this season and love their chances at doing it again tonight in slate breaking fashion.
The next GPP spot for us may make you roll your eyes a bit as they have burned us plenty in the early going, oftentimes as chalk. The Boston Red Sox have been incredibly inconsistent this season, but have been rather streaky and we love taking a gamble with them on the upswing tonight as they get a very favorable matchup against Toronto Blue Jays’ right hander Bowden Francis. Francis has been crushed by LHH this season, allowing them a line of .323/.442. This should spell trouble for him as the Red Sox have a few dangerous LHH that have great stats against righties this year including: Rafael Devers (.300/.434), Wilyer Abreu (.281/.406), and Triston Casas (.213/.320 vs FB). Jarren Duran has had a slow start, but we can lean on his much larger 2024 sample where he held a .201/.355 line against righties. Francis has been better against RHH, but Alex Bregman (.257/.366) and Kristian Campbell (.197/.367) have been great right on right and will hit in the heart of the order.
The next GPP option is an RGP favorite as the Seattle Mariners look to be in a good spot yet again. They will be facing Los Angeles Angels right hander Jack Kochanowicz who has really struggled against LHH in the early going allowing them a line of .235/.389. Cal Raleigh (.348/.403), Jorge Polanco (.289/.451), Luke Raley (.370 xwOBA), and Rowdy Tellez (.296/.390) look to be in a great spot with very solid numbers against RHP this season. Kochanowicz has been better against RHH, but is still allowing them an xwOBA of .351. As a result, we are fine with rostering RHH like Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Dylan Moore who also carry SB upside should they get on base.
The final GPP stack to look at tonight is a mini stack of Los Angeles Dodgers lefties against Miami Marlins right hander Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has not yet returned to pre-injury form and a big hurdle of his has been left handed hitters who are slashing .257/.392 against him. Shohei Ohtani (.372/.451), Freddie Freeman (.406/.519), and Tommy Edman (.222/.389) all hit from the left side and have great numbers against righties this season. Max Muncy has had a slow start, but can also be considered based on his line against righties from a season ago: .215/.362. Best of luck tonight!