Pitching: Ragans (Optimal), Crochet (#1 GPP), Ryan (#2 GPP), Cabrera (value)
Hitting: SD (Optimal), BAL (#1 GPP), LAA (#2 GPP), LAD (#3 GPP)
Weather: All good!
Welcome to a fun slate with some awesome pitching options and fun hitting stacks to use in your lineup. Let’s dive right in!
Our first optimal pitcher of the slate is Cole Ragans who takes on the Boston Red Sox. He has insane K rates of 25% to LHH and 43% to RHH which is lovely to see. Add in the fact that we have five hitters with K rates above 26%, that gives our guy Ragans some sweet upside. Now the X stats check out as well considering he only allows LHH to muster up a (.094/.265) rate and RHH a rate of (.153/.244). This is as good as it gets for an optimal pitcher so he makes for the ideal cash games play.
Our next pitcher is on the other side of this game with Garrett Crochet who takes on the Kansas City Royals. He has K rates of 38% to LHH and 27% to RHH which is very good. He gets to face five hitters with K rates above 20%, including 4 above 22% which presents similar upside like Ragans. The X stats here are also amazing as LHH basically do nothing with a rate of (.036/.194) and RHH can only muster up a rate of (.146/.312). On DK this is an awesome game to stack pitching and on FD Crochet is an awesome pivot from Ragans if looking to shave off ownership.
We now go over to Minnesota as we side with Joe Ryan who takes on the San Francisco Giants. The thing we love about Ryan in this matchup is that he strikes out RHH at a 37% clip and he gets to face five of them today which plays into his hands. In addition, five hitters in this Giants lineup carry K rates over 21% which gives Ryan similar upside to the other two pitchers we just discussed. Now when it comes to the X stats, it helps Ryan look like an awesome option considering that neither side of the plate can hit for a xwOBA higher than .297. That is great considering the threshold for us is to like pitchers is generally having an xwOBA of under .350 so he checks that box out. Joe Ryan makes for an interesting option to use in GPPs today, albeit worse than the top studs.
Our last pitcher is a value play with Edward Cabrera who takes on the Chicago White Sox. He has a 27% K rate against LHH and he will be facing 4 of them in the lineup today. The K rates to RHH are low with 14.8%, BUT we believe that Cabrera has the opportunity to increase those numbers today. Of the five RHH in this White Sox lineup, 3 of them have K rates above 24%. Tack on the fact that three LHH also carry K rates above 24%, this spot suddenly starts to look nice for Cabrera from an upside standpoint. Now how about the X stats? Well you’ll be delighted to hear that LHH can’t hit Cabrera very well, only boasting a rate of (.137/.308). On the other side, RHH only have an xISO of .185 which is under the .200 threshold we like to hold pitchers to. Lock in Cabrera if you need value on this slate.
Now we move on to our hitting stacks with the San Diego Padres being optimal at Coors Field as they take on Bradley BlaLOCKtogiveupatonofruns. The RHH dominate him so we want to begin there. Fernando Tatis (.371/.470) and Manny Machado (.200/.408) are the two batters we want to prioritize. When it comes to LHH they hit his fastball very well so Luis Arraez (.348xwOBA), Jackson Merrill (.302/.513), Jake Cronenworth (.390xwOBA), Gavin Sheets (.302/.403), and Jayson Heyward (.261xISO) are the hitters we want to target on that side of the plate.
Now we move onto the Baltimore Orioles who take on Jack Kochanowicz. LHH absolutely torch him with every pitch so that is where we will begin. Cedric Mullins has OK stats vs. RHP but he hits the sinker, slider, and fastball well which is what matters. Adley Rutschman (.228/.394), Gunnar Henderson (.365xwOBA), Ryan O’ Hearn (.241/.407), Jackson Holliday (.217/.360), and Heston Kjerstad (.264/.358) all excell against RHP making them our ideal choices. Ryan Mountcastle (.344xwOBA) and Tyler O’ Neil (.380/.490) hit the sinker well which makes them viable considering that is Jacks worst pitch to RHH.
Now we move on to the other side of this game with the Los Angeles Angels who take on Kyle Gibshit. Pardon, Gibson. Kyle has gotten destroyed by both sides of the plate especially with his sinker that gets served on a gold platter for the hitters. Zach Neto (.366xwOBA), Nolan Schanuel (.419xwOBA), Yoan Moncada (.215xISO), Taylor Ward (.418/.466), Logan O’ Hoppe (.232/.424), and Kyren Paris (.570/.561) all hit that pitch very well. Jo Adell is also viable considering he hits RHP well to the tune of a (.234/.353) rate.
Hey Corbin Burnes! How do we welcome back one of the more overrated pitchers of the year from an injury? Well with a date with the Los Angeles Dodgers who are fresh off a 14-run outing last night. The good news is that we can get them low owned here as well considering the other awesome stacks that make it hard for the DFS player to want to spend up for expensive Dodger bats. The cutter has been a big reason as to why Burnes has struggled this year, it simply has been a very poor pitch. Shohei Ohtani (.392xwOBA), Freddie Freeman (.398/.392), Will Smith (.376xwOBA), Michael Conforto (.387xISO), and Hyeseong Kim (.850xwOBA) have hit that pitch very well this year. Andy Pages (.215/.384) and Mookie Betts (.355wOBA) are viable given their success against RHP which plays into the hands of Corbin Burnes being a reverse splits guy, faring worse against RHH. They haven’t been mentioned but James Outman has a (.619/.474) rate against RHP making him an option and Max Muncy has seemed to find a rhythm in his at-bats ever since he started wearing these glasses to help him see the pitches better. This could make him a nice GPP option while projections include his early season struggles.