Pitching: Misiorowski (SP1), McLean (SP2), Warren (GPP)
Hitting: NYY (Optimal 1), MIL (Optimal 2), NYM (GPP 1), MIN (GPP 2)
Weather: Possible rain in Baltimore
Update: The weather in Baltimore has cleared up and I don’t really view it as much of a concern. Storms could always change direction and screw you, but I think it’s probably safe to consider Bradish as a solid value arm. Bats definitely safe there
We begin this Memorial Day Monday with an exciting six-game MLB early slate.
Our top pitching option for the slate is none other than red-hot Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski. The 24-year-old is coming off six straight games with at least eight strikeouts and has allowed just four total runs during that span. He has just completely dominated lefties, striking them out at a 47% rate and allowing lines of just .063/.230. While Misiorowski’s fastball has been hit much harder by righties, St Louis’ right-handed batters have not had much success against it this season. This is chalk that we do not want to fade, considering Misiorowski’s steady floor and towering ceiling. Hopefully the price increase will keep his ownership from reaching crazy levels.
The next pitcher we’ll be discussing is the Mets’ Nolan McLean, as he hosts Cincinnati. Coming off a start in which he allowed six earned runs and two home runs on eight hits against the Nationals, McLean looks to get back into rhythm at home. Despite the poor outing last time, we can look at the overall body of work and see that clearly he’s underpriced. He is striking out righties at a 36% rate and holding them to just .081/.217. While he has not been quite as dominant against lefties, he is still striking them out 26% of the time and holding them to a .122/.305 line. McLean is set up nicely here and is our second-favorite pitching option on the slate, especially given the potential rain in Baltimore and the risk posed by Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan. He’ll be very popular, as will Mis, and if fading one of them we’d rather fade McLean. There’s a couple things that could work against him here. First, the bad recent outing could potentially indicate an issue. Most likely it’s a bad day and he’ll be right back to dominating today, but it is possible that it’s the start of a skid. Second, his 10% swinging strike rate is pretty low for a guy with this high of a strikeout rate. This would suggest that he’s due for regression on strikeouts. And lastly, the Reds lineup does have some pretty good stats up and down the order. They’ll strikeout a lot too, but they can do damage. All in all McLean is a great play, but we wanted to lay out the bear case if you were looking for a reason to fade one of the clear optimal arms.
Our last pitching option that we’ll be discussing is the Yankees’ Will Warren. Through 10 starts, Warren is striking righties out at a 31.5% rate and lefties out at a 25% rate. While his numbers against lefties (.147/.296) are not necessarily bad, his numbers against righties (.105/.270) are even better. He now faces a Royals lineup that consists of three righties through their first four batters, allowing Warren to potentially start strong and keep that momentum rolling against the weaker half of the order. He’s the only GPP pivot we like at pitcher. We considered a few value arms, but ultimately we just don’t feel like it’s a slate where you want to be dumpster diving at pitcher. We think these three options are the guys you want to be using.
The optimal hitting stack from this slate is the Yankees, as they face Royals pitcher Michael Wacha with the highest team total on the slate. While Wacha has been steady to start the season, he’s proven to be quite hittable when faced with certain matchups, and he walks into a tough one here. Wacha’s fastball has been crushed (.294/.416) by lefties, setting Ben Rice (.851/.652), Cody Bellinger (.174/.437), Trent Grisham (.215/.376), and Ryan McMahon (.265/.361) up nicely against that pitch. Righties Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt have also had some success against his pitch types. These guys could blast homers today and be easily optimal, but they will also carry quite a bit of ownership as a result.
Our other optimal hitting stack of this slate comes from the Brewers, facing Cardinals pitcher Matthew Liberatore. While he hasn’t had much success against righties, Liberatore has just been completely shredded (.288/.420) by left-handed hitters to start the season. This sets Milwaukee’s Brice Turang, Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers, and Sal Frelick up great. Righties William Contreras and Andrew Vaughn have had the most success against Liberatore’s pitches and look good here too. They have the second highest total on the slate, yet they don’t project nearly as chalky as the Yankees. They make for a solid option in all formats.
Our favorite GPP hitting stack on this slate comes from the Mets, as they face Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo. While he’s just had three starts since returning from a finger injury, Lodolo has struggled in all three and is someone we’d want to bet against here as he continues to try to get into rhythm. He’s allowed lines of .290/.398 to right-handed batters and .185/.447 to lefties in those starts. Juan Soto (.263/.330), Bo Bichette (.205/.393) and Mark Vientos (.225/.371) have been the most successful against his pitch types this season and are set up to crush. Marcus Semien, Brett Baty, Tyrone Taylor, and Carson Benge are all worth a look at as well.
Our final hitting stack comes from the Minnesota Twins, specifically their right-handed bats, as they face White Sox left-handed pitcher Anthony Kay, who has allowed a .218/.418 line to righties. Kay’s fastball and cutter in particular have been crushed by righties this season. Byron Buxton, Austin Martin, Josh Bell, and Ryan Kreidler are all viable here. While he’s a lefty, Kody Clemens has had success (.270/.428) against Kay’s pitch arsenal and is also worth looking at here.
Good luck, everyone!