Pitching: Gray ( optimal) Ray (#1 GPP), Henderson (#2 GPP), Corbin (value)
Hitting: BAL (Optimal), TOR (#1 GPP), MIL (#2 GPP), SEA (#3 GPP)
Weather: Clear!
The first optimal pitcher on this slate is Sonny Gray who takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has an insane K rate of 32% to LHH and he will be facing six of them today which plays into his hands. The X stats tell a great story as well as he holds LHH to the tune of (.187/.313). In terms of RHH, they actually hit Gray pretty well but 2 of the 3 RHH in this lineup carry under a .160xISO and .350xwOBA. There is a lot to like in this matchup which is why he is the optimal cash games play.
Next up on our list is Robbie Ray who takes on the Washington Nationals. The Nationals rank slightly below the league average in strikeout rate as a team at 21.2%, but we believe Ray has the K rates to overcome that. Robbie Ray has K rates of 23% to LHH and 27% to RHH. Surprisingly there are a decent amount of LHH in this lineup which is not good for the Nationals because Ray sports a rate of (.113/.298) against them. The RHH are no better as they can only muster up a rate of (.146/.290) against him. This is one of our favorite plays on the slate when it comes to GPPs.
Now we come upon Logan Henderson who takes on the Pittsburgh Pirates. There is a lot to love about this matchup in terms of the upside. Through three big league starts, Henderson has K rates of 33% to LHH and a whopping 47% to RHH. That will bode well against a Pirates squad that is tied for 5th in highest strikeout rate as a team at 23.2%. The X stats are also solid as he holds RHH to a measle (.032/.216) rate. In addition, he also holds LHH to under a .298xwOBA which will likely keep dangerous hitters like Cruz and Reynolds in check. The upside with Henderson is what has him cracking our top 4 list for today.
The value pitcher of this slate is Patrick Corbin who takes on the Chicago White Sox. The choice for value was between him or Ober but the White Sox (5th) had a higher strikeout percentage as a team than the Kansas City Royals did (28th) so we want to chase the upside. With both of them having similar K rates on the lower end it really came down to the White Sox simply striking out more. When it comes to the X stats, Corbin holds RHH to the tune of a (.173/.332) rate which bodes well for him considering he will face five of them eight of them today. There is a lot to like here with this value play so lock him in if you are looking for spend up for bats.
Now we move on to the bats as the Baltimore Orioles land on our optimal list for today. They get to face Walker Buehler who has struggled with the fastball to both sides of the plate this year. Jackson Holliday (.257/.386), Adley Rutschman (.285/.407), Gunnar Henderson (.425xwOBA), Ryan O’ Hearn (.282/.528), Emmanuel Rivera (.411xwOBA), Heston Kjerstad (.331/.470), and Cedric Mullins (.257/.361) have all had success against the fastball pitch this year. Our favorite plays on this team would be Holliday and Rutschman.
Next up on the list of hitting stacks are the Toronto Blue Jays who take on Ryan Pepiot who also struggles with his fastball. That would mean Bo Bichette (.264/.449), Vladamir Guerrero (.223/.421), Daulton Varsho (.429/.405), George Springer (.271/.374), and Alejandro Kirk (.259/.453) are the best plays on this team given their success against the fastball. Nathan Lukes (.353xwOBA), Jonatan Clase (.358xwOBA), and Addison Barger (.222/.369) are also in play because of their success against RHP. Our favorite play on this team would be Daulton Varsho.
The Chicago Cubs take the stage next as they face Nick Lodolo. The struggle for Lodolo has been with the fastball so that is where we are going to attack him. Seiya Suzuki (.412/.480), Dansby Swanson (.487/.419), Nico Hoerner (.392xwOBA), Justin Turner (.399/.514), and Matt Shaw (.278/.375) are the RHH that have had success against the fastball. After them, Carson Kelly is viable given his success against LHP with a rate of (.338/.454). Lodolo pitches very well against LHH but we believe Kyle Tucker (.338/.438) and Pete–Crow Armstrong (.214xISO) have the X stats to overcome that which makes them viable. Justin Turner would be our favorite play on this team.
The last stack of the day are the Seattle Mariners who take on Colton Gordon. The fastball has been a problem for Gordon in his short stint in the MLB and the Mariners feast on that pitch. Dylan Moore (.326/.440), JP Crawford (.521xwOBA), Cal Raleigh (.289/.386), Julio Rodriguez (.535/.495), Randy Arozarena (.410/.440), Mitch Garver (.228xISO), and Leo Rivas (.375xwOBA) are the hitters that have had success against that pitch. Our favorite Mariner to use is Julio Rodriguez with his elite X stats which is the best on the team.