Pitching: Crochet (Optimal), deGrom (#1 GPP), Holmes (#2 GPP), Taillon (value)
Hitting: CHC (Optimal), STL (#1 GPP), NYM (#2 GPP), BAL (#3 GPP)
Weather: CIN/KC
The optimal pitcher on this slate is Garrett Crochet, who faces the Milwaukee Brewers. While the Brewers rank 17th in strikeout percentage at 21.7%, Crochet has the strikeout rates to overcome that, boasting a 41% K rate against left-handed hitters and 33% against right-handed hitters. His expected stats are elite, holding left-handed hitters to a line of .101/.250 and right-handed hitters to .144/.266. There’s very little to dislike about this matchup, making Crochet an excellent option for cash games.
Jacob deGrom is another top pitching option, as he squares off against the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite Toronto ranking 28th in strikeout percentage at 19.4%, deGrom has the stuff to excel in this spot. He owns a 33% strikeout rate against lefties and 30% against righties. His expected stats are also impressive, limiting left-handed hitters to under a .290 xwOBA and holding righties to a microscopic .050/.218 line. This is a strong spot for deGrom, making him our favorite GPP play.
Clay Holmes also warrants attention as he matches up against the Chicago White Sox, a team that ranks fifth in strikeout percentage at 23.4%. Holmes has a 31% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters and, while his rate against lefties is lower at 18%, this matchup offers a solid chance for improvement. His expected stats are outstanding, with lefties managing just a .125/.311 line against him and righties doing even worse at .087/.254. Holmes makes for an ideal pivot play, particularly for those looking to differentiate their lineups with lower ownership.
For value, Jameson Taillon is in a prime position as he takes on the struggling Colorado Rockies. While Taillon’s strikeout rates are modest—17% against left-handed hitters and 19% against right-handed hitters—this matchup presents his best opportunity to improve. The Rockies rank second in team strikeout percentage at 26.9%. His expected stats are promising, as he holds lefties to a .180/.325 line and righties to .145/.295. If you need salary relief, Taillon is a strong choice.
Turning to hitting stacks, the Chicago Cubs are the top stack of the slate as they face Carson Palmquist, who has struggled against both sides of the plate. That’s problematic against a Cubs team that excels against left-handed pitching. Key bats to consider include Ian Happ (.359 xwOBA), Kyle Tucker (.323/.429), Seiya Suzuki (.377/.494), Carson Kelly (.338/.454), Dansby Swanson (.324/.387), Pete Crow–Armstrong (.212 xISO), Justin Turner (.397 xwOBA), Matt Shaw (.371 xwOBA), and Reese McGuire (.600/.483). Suzuki and Swanson are our favorite options from this group.
The St. Louis Cardinals also present a strong stacking opportunity as they face a struggling Charlie Morton, whose fastball has been ineffective against both left- and right-handed hitters. This sets the stage for productive outings from Lars Nootbar (.222/.391), Masyn Winn (.378 xwOBA), Brendan Donovan (.226/.463), Wilson Contreras (.251/.410), Nolan Arenado (.267 xISO), Jordan Walker (.418/.434), Alec Burleson (.255/.369), and Victor Scott (.463 xwOBA). Our top picks from this lineup are Winn and Nootbar.
Adrian Houser silenced the Mariners in his previous start, but we expect a regression against the New York Mets. In this matchup, it’s best to target left-handed hitters who handle fastballs well and right-handed hitters who hit sliders effectively. Strong lefties include Francisco Lindor (.251/.400), Juan Soto (.385/.491), Jared Young (1.106/.822), and Brett Baty (.240 xISO). Tyrone Taylor (.275/.436) is the lone right-handed hitter to consider, and Pete Alonso is also viable thanks to his solid .312/.423 line against right-handed pitching. Juan Soto stands out as our favorite play from this group.
Finally, the Baltimore Orioles are an intriguing stack as they face Erick Fedde, who has struggled most with his cutter this season. The Orioles have several hitters who can take advantage of this, including Jackson Holliday (.321 xISO), Adley Rutschman (.263/.431), Gunnar Henderson (.367 xwOBA), Ramon Urias (.633 xwOBA), Ryan O’Hearn (.432 xwOBA), and Ryan Mountcastle (.410/.377). Among this group, O’Hearn and Mountcastle are our preferred plays.