Pitching: Wheeler (#1 Optimal), Woo (#2 Optimal), Skenes (#1 GPP), Vasquez (DK Value/GPP, FD Deep GPP), Megill (DK Value/GPP), Luzardo (GPP)
Hitting: ARI (#1 Optimal), MIN (#2 Optimal), LAD (#1 GPP), NYY (#2 GPP), TEX (#3 GPP)
Bad Chalk: Louie Varland
Weather: MIA/NYM
We wanted to start off by addressing our bad chalk for the night: Louie Varland. We started this morning loving Varland based on what we were seeing in the projections for him, but when we dug a little deeper, we thought that the projections were too heavily weighing his success from last season. Varland is far from the promising young arm he was at the end of 2023 and has spent some time down in AAA because of it. His strikeout rates are down significantly and both RHH and LHH have xISOs of .220 or more against him. LHH, in particular, have an xISO of .324 and an xwOBA of .414. Varland even struggled in his most recent AAA outing, giving up 6 runs in just 3 innings of work and raising his AAA ERA to 5.31 in the process. To make matters worse, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli pretty much alluded to Varland being called up as a human rest day to give their rotation a bit of a break amidst a stretch of 13 straight games. We get the argument for Varland, he has shown the ability to have elite strikeout stuff and faces a pretty bad Rockies lineup, however, we think he is broken right now and it would be foolish to roster him based on what he’s shown us in 2024. Add to the fact that he looks to be the chalk value option on both sites, we will happily look elsewhere.
Your #1 optimal pitching option tonight on both sites is Philadelphia Phillies right-hander, Zack Wheeler. Wheeler comes into this matchup sporting K rates of 23.6% to LHH and 33.8% to RHH. Wheeler has been elite vs righties this season, holding them to an xISO of .103 and an xwOBA of .211. Lefties have had a little bit more success, but he has still kept them down to an xISO of .151. Wheeler has been as consistent as they come, going for over 20 DK points in his last 4 starts where he is averaging over 6 innings per start and 6.5 strikeouts. Wheeler has also flashed a high ceiling with multiple outings this season in which he scored 30 DK points or more. As the top optimal option, Wheeler is expected to see some ownership on both sites. He is likely where you want to start with your cash builds, but is also a fine option in GPPs due to his high ceiling.
Your next optimal pitching option is actually projected to be slightly higher owned than Wheeler on DK and about the same on FD, mostly due to his discounted price tag. Bryan Woo has been lights out since coming off the injured list and he gets a great matchup against the lowly White Sox. Woo has already demonstrated the ability to feed off of bottom feeders coming off a start against the Athletics pitching 6 strong allowing just 2 hits, no ER, and striking out 6. In his last 4 starts, he has gone 6 innings and certainly looks like he has found his way as a big-league pitcher. There is some slight cause for concern with Woo. Since returning from the IL, the Mariners seem to be taking an overly cautious approach with his pitch count. Woo has mostly been capped around the 80-pitch mark and has only gone over 80 pitches once this season. The good news is, that one time came in his last start where he set his high water mark on the year at 85. This could be an indication that Seattle is getting closer to unleashing him without a limit and he could have the chance to extend his pitch count beyond that 85-pitch mark. The other good news for Woo is that he has been incredibly efficient. Despite the low pitch counts, he has gotten through 6 innings of work in 4 of his 6 starts and sports a WHIP of just .54 over that span meaning he has done a great job keeping guys off base. Overall, the projections love him and so does the industry. If you were to fade him, you are betting on him being less efficient and still having his pitch count capped in the mid-80s. He is probably a safe bet in cash, but don’t be afraid to look elsewhere in GPPs.
Your #1 GPP pitching option on tonight’s slate is going to be Pirates’ rookie phenom, Paul Skenes. Skenes is still fairly popular on DK, projecting for ownership around 25%, but still less than both Wheeler and Woo despite having a similar projection. He is the third most popular guy on Fanduel as well, but after Wheeler and Woo, the ownership seems to be pretty evenly spread out and Skenes projects to be around 10%. Skenes has adjusted to the MLB as good as any rookie has and looks to keep that rolling tonight. In 5 starts this season, Skenes has struck out 7 or more in 4 of them including a breakout 11 K performance against the Cubs. In his most recent outing, he did more than hold his own against one of the best lineups in baseball, pitching 5 innings, allowing 3 ER, and striking out 8, which was good enough to pick up the win against the Dodgers. Skenes’ K rates have been absurd thus far, getting LHH 39.6% of the time and RHH 31.5% of the time. LHH have a measly .102 xISO and .241 wxOBA vs Skenes. RHH have had a little more success but he has been able to keep them to a .295 xwOBA. He will face a middle-of-the-road Cardinals lineup that only has one player in their projected lineup with an xISO above .190. 5 of the 9 strike out at a 20% rate or higher. Skenes makes for great leverage off of the chalk here tonight and is a GPP darling, especially on Fanduel.
Your next GPP option on tonight’s slate could provide you with some much-needed value, especially if playing on DK and pairing him with one of the higher-priced options listed above. That would be San Diego Padres’ righty Randy Vasquez. Vasquez is $5.6k on DK and $7.5k on FD. Due to the gap in pricing and the need to roster two pitchers, we much prefer Vasquez on DK. He should be looked at as a deep GPP dart throw on FD. At such a low price, we are really just looking for Vasquez to get into the double digits with his DK score, something he has done in 4 of his 7 starts this season. What makes us believe that he will do it for a 5th time is his matchup with the Oakland Athletics. Vasquez has been pretty bad against lefties this year, but against righties, he has pretty respectable numbers, and if you look at last season he was elite at getting righties out, striking them out 26.7% of the time and holding them to an xISO of .120. Tonight, Oakland looks to be sending at least 7 RHH to the plate, and of the 2 LHH projected to be in their lineup, only one sports an xISO above .150. Like most pitchers in this price range, Vasquez does carry significant risk and is more than capable of logging a negative score. That said, the projections love him tonight and we think he is great leverage off of Varland who is a tad bit more expensive and projecting for twice the ownership.
Another spot to look for value tonight on DK could come from Mets’ righty, Tylor Megill. Megill rates out as the 4th best point/$ play as he is just $7.3k. Megill got a late start to his 2024 season as he had to work back from an early shoulder injury. In four starts this season, Megill has gone 5 innings or more in 3 of them and has only allowed more than 2 ER once. He has also flashed some strikeout upside with performances of 7 and 9 strikeouts, one of which came in a stellar outing vs the Dodgers where he eclipsed 30 DK points. Through the 4 starts, he is striking out RHH 28.6% of the time and LHH 25.9% of the time. He also gets to face a Marlins lineup that is projected to send 7 guys to the plate that have strikeout rates 20% or more on the season. We probably would not suggest you go to Megill on FD where he is priced all the way up to 9.2k, but on DK he seems like a safe option given his price and upside. He will have some ownership there but currently sits 5th with his ownership projection.
Your final GPP option to look at tonight would be Miami Marlins lefty, Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has had a bit of a roller coaster season this year after a breakout campaign in 2023 where he struck out 208 across 178 innings of work. Luzardo had a disastrous start, eventually leading to a short stint on the injured list. When he returned, he came back guns blazing with a 3-start stretch of 21.8, 28.5, and 28.2 DK points. It seemed as if he had gotten back on track and put his slow April behind him, but in his last start, he put together arguably his worst outing of the year, letting up 9 ER in just 4.1 innings of work against Tampa Bay. Luzardo had been cruising through the first 3 before getting tattooed in the 4th and things snowballed from there. Since that start, Luzardo has been vocal about the changes he needs to make and also got some additional rest with the Marlins having two scheduled off days in between. Tonight, he will face a Mets lineup that he dominated just a few weeks ago as a part of the three-start stretch mentioned above. Despite the up-and-down nature of this season, Luzardo still has K rates of 26.2% vs LHH and 21.3% vs RHH. His recent struggles are reflected in his ownership, and we think that makes for a great spot to target in GPPs. He also has a pretty deflated price tag on DK given that through most of April, he had a salary in the mid-9k range and currently sits at $8.1K heading into tonight. At this price and single-digit ownership, he is definitely worth a stab in GPPs and could leverage you to the top tonight. He is not nearly as discounted on FD making him a bit riskier there.
Now onto the bats, where tonight we have some great opportunities to attack in GPPs. Currently, 4 teams have close to the same run total projection just north of 5 runs. The first we will touch upon looks to be your optimal stacking option based on their point/$ projection and that would be the Arizona Diamondbacks. They will face Angels lefty, Jose Suarez. Suarez has been elite against lefties, but the good news for the Diamondbacks is that Corbin Carroll is the only LHH projected to be in their lineup. Against RHH, Suarez has been less than stellar with batters carrying an xISO of .191 and xwOBA of .358. The X stats for Arizona’s hitters do not jump off the page, but they are just too cheap for the opportunity they have tonight. On FD, Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, Randal Grichuk, and Eugenio Suarez are all $3k or less. The other two popular guys from this lineup aren’t much more expensive with Ketel Marte and Christain Walker having prices of $3.6k and $3.3k respectively. On DK, Moreno, Grichuk, and Suarez are all sub $3.5k and only Marte tops the $5k mark. As a result, the projections are loving the Dbacks, especially on a slate where it is wise to spend up for pitching. Surprisingly, only Marte is projected to have significant ownership making this a great slate to safely play the optimal guys without being too chalky.
The next optimal stacking option tonight looks to be the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are set to face Rockies righty, Cal Quantrill. Quantrill has actually been pretty solid for the Rockies this season but has run into some issues with the walks as of late, walking 4 in his last outing and 2 or more in 4 of his last 6. He was able to dance around them in his last start, but it is only a matter of time before they come back to haunt him. The Twins’ lefties look to be in a solid spot tonight with a number of them boasting solid career numbers against RHP including this season. Trevor Larnach really jumps out sporting an xISO of .233 and bashing 6 HR vs RHP this season. Max Kepler and Alex Kiriloff are the other two true left-handed hitters who should match up well with Quantrill. After that, guys like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Willi Castro project well. Royce Lewis will be the highest owned of the group on FD where he is still just $3.5k. He should be a lock in your FD cash game lineups, but fine to fade in GPPs.
Our #1 GPP stack tonight is one we are pretty excited about. Due to their price and the size of the slate, they are not nearly as chalky as we would expect them to be, which makes for a great spot for us to attack. That would be the Los Angeles Dodgers, who will face Rangers’ righty, Dane Dunning. Dunning has put up respectable numbers thus far, but we think he is due to get blown up and this appears to be the spot. For starters, he is currently holding RHH to an ISO of just .130, however his xISO jumps up to .190, meaning he has had some good fortune. On the other hand, both his ISO and xISO are very high vs LHH with an xISO of .270. In addition, LHH are sporting an xwOBA of .395. We wonder if the Dodgers have any good LHH? Enter Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, both of which have assaulted RHP this season. Ohtani has an xISO of .345 to Freeman’s .215 and both have xwOBAs over .380. If we expect for Dunning’s luck to turn for the worst against righties, we love Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, and Will Smith in this spot. Some cheaper options from this lineup look to be LHH Jason Heyward and Gavin Lux as well as RHH Andy Pages. We understand that a full Dodgers stack can get expensive, but if you can find a way to jam them in, we love the opportunity they have 1-9.
Our 2nd GPP stack of the night looks to be the New York Yankees who are set to face Royals’ righty Brady Singer. Singer has been solid against RHH, but against LHH it has been a different story. He has allowed LHH an xISO of .229 and an xwOBA of .371. That makes us love Juan Soto in this spot who carries an xISO of .378 vs RHP this season. The other LHHs that stand out to us are Alex Verdugo, Anthony Rizzo, and Austin Wells. RHH Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton seem to be matchup-proof this season when facing RHP boasting xISOs of .454 and .297 respectively. Both Stanton and Judge have double-digit HRs off RHP this season. The best of the rest for us here provide some power/speed upside in Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres.
Our final GPP stack of the night looks to be the Texas Rangers. The Texas Rangers do not carry the same high run total projection that the other stacks we have outlined have, but they are in a matchup that we think they can exploit against Dodgers’ lefty, James Paxton. Paxton’s X stats vs LHH have been elite this season, but the same can’t be said vs RHH and the Rangers look to be sending just one LHH to the plate tonight. We think guys like Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford, Robbie Grossman, and Jonah Heim are in a great spot with the options after Garcia and Semien carrying pretty low price tags.