Pitchers: Ray (Optimal #1), Ragans (Optimal #2), Quintana (Optimal #3 Value), Wheeler (GPP #1), Assad (GPP #2) Montas (GPP #3 value)
Hitting: LAD (Optimal), KC (GPP #1), SEA (GPP #2), BOS (GPP #3), TB (GPP #4), NYY (GPP #5)
Weather: All Clear!
Today we have a huge slate full of pitching options and plenty of solid batting stacks to discuss, so let’s not waste any more time and get into it!
Our first optimal pitcher of the slate is Robbie Ray, who is looking to bounce back after his nightmare start against the Braves. He has the luxury of taking on the White Sox this time with his K rates of 25% to LHH and 34% to RHH. He gets to face 6 White Sox hitters with K rates above 17%, including 4 above 27%. The pitch that Ray tends to struggle with the most is the fastball (.496/.490) against LHH, but this lineup only features one hitter that poses a significant threat to that pitch in Andrew Benintendi (.206/.373). With his .151 xISO/.293 xwOBA against RHH and high K rates, look for Ray to bounce back tonight in the perfect matchup.
Our next optimal pitcher is Cole Ragans, who takes on the Los Angeles Angels. So far this season, he has K rates of 20% to LHH and 30% to RHH. All nine hitters in this lineup have K rates above 17% so there is room for Ragans to rack up the K’s. As far as X stats go, Ragans has been elite to both sides of the plate as the highest xISO he has to LHH he has on any pitch is a .159 xISO and .164xISO to RHH. Overall, he holds lefties to a .115 xISO/.309 xwOBA and righties to a .135 xISO/.283 xwOBA. Ragans checks out all the boxes and looks like a green light here against the Angels.
Our optimal value on this slate is lefty Jose Quintana, who is facing the Baltimore Orioles after a lefty in Peterson just dominated them to the tune of 7 innings and 8 K’s. In the last 30 days, he has K rates of 13% to LHH and 21% to RHH. He gets the luxury of facing 6 Oriole hitters with K rates above 22% which gives him the upside to land more strikeouts than he usually does. Now as far as X stats go, he holds lefties to a .116 xISO/.295 xwOBA and righties to a .105 xISO/.312 xwOBA over the last 30 days. For his price, he makes for one of the better pt/$ options on this slate at pitcher to help you spend up for bats.
Our first GPP pitcher on this slate is Zack Wheeler, who takes on the Atlanta Braves. He has K rates of 25% to LHH and 30% to RHH. He gets to face 7 Brave hitters with K rates above 20%. This Braves lineup is also a bit weaker considering they just lost Austin Riley. In terms of the X stats, Wheeler has been elite against RHH with no pitch above a .171 xISO as he holds them to a rate of .099 xISO/.216 xwOBA overall. It is a slightly different story against lefties as they hit his fastball and curveball well, which would make Michael Harris, Matt Olson, and Jarred Kelenic significant threats to those pitches. He still holds LHH to the tune of a .174 xISO/.316 xwOBA so it’s still not too bad of a spot here. This is the perfect place to get different taking Wheeler in GPPs if you want to pivot away from Ragans or Ray.
Our GPP value pitcher is Frankie Montas, who takes on the St. Louis Cardinals. Over the last 30 days, we have seen him become a new pitcher ever since he got traded to the Brewers. He is posting K rates of 14% to LHH and 34% to RHH. He gets to face 5 hitters with K rates above 20% which gives him some nice K upside at his price point. The X stats also check out as he holds lefties to a .117 xISO and righties to a .150 xISO. After once being a pitcher whose fastball would get destroyed, the Brewers have figured out how to help him and locate that pitch. which is why he’s had the smooth transition ever since being traded. He makes for another solid value on this slate if you are looking to spend down at pitcher.
Our last GPP pitcher is another value in Javier Assad, who has had fantastic X stats over the last thirty days. His downside is that he has K rates of only 11% to LHH and 16% to RHH. Luckily for Assad, this Tigers lineup has 8 hitters with K rates above 21%, so this makes for the perfect opportunity to pick up his strikeout numbers. In addition, he’s holding LHH to an xISO of .119 and RHH to an elite .046 xISO. The X stats look fantastic and the matchup looks great for Assad who will try to keep things rolling.
Finally, we have to touch on Walker Buehler, who projects well and we want to lay out his path to success. He has K rates of 20% to LHH and 16% to RHH and we know this Mariners team is feast or famine. If they are famine, it will be due to their high K rates. 7 of their 9 hitters have K rates above 22% and we have seen their bats go cold before. If that tends to be the case today, Walker should have a great day. If not, then Seattle becomes a viable stack which we will discuss later.
Our first stack on this slate that we have to discuss is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who take on Bryce Miller. The Achilles heel for Miller has been his fastball, which has gotten crushed all year by his opponents. This Dodger team is now healthy and full of fastball-killers you don’t want to see. Shohei Ohtani (.443/.511), Mookie Betts (.370 xwOBA), Freddie Freeman (.291/.424), Teoscar Hernandez (.198 xISO), Gavin Lux (.341 xwOBA), Will Smith (.207 xISO), Max Muncy (.404/.402), Miguel Rojas (.362 xwOBA), and Tommie Edman (.418 xwOBA) all have seen that pitch well. They are the very clear optimal stack this evening.
Our first GPP stack of the evening is the Kansas City Royals, who are taking on Tyler Anderson. Anderson is another pitcher that has been a gas can thanks in part to allowing his fastball to get crushed by both sides of the plate. Maikel Garcia (.373 xwOBA), Bobby Witt (.330/.440), Vinnie Pasquantino (.332/.375), Salvador Perez (.283/.361), Hunter Renfroe (.286/.378), Freddie Fermin (.363 xwOBA), and Darion Blanco (.251 xISO) all have seen that pitch well this season. Paul DeJong and Garrett Hampson are also viable values you can insert into your lineups if they help fit your Royals stack.
Our next GPP stack is the Seattle Mariners who take on Walker Buehler. After getting dominated by Stone’s changeup, the Mariners will be relieved to hear they get to face Buehler’s fastball that gets obliterated to the tune of a .418 xISO by LHH and .500 xISO by RHH. Victor Robles (.343/.408), Randy Arozarena (.198xISO), Cal Raleigh (.296/.376), Julio Rodriguez (.203/.367), Jorge Polanco (.329/.368), Luke Raley (.330/.444), Justin Turner (.348 xwOBA), Josh Rojas (.200/.331), and Dylan Moore (.190 xISO) have all hit the fastball well this season. We know they have been one of the more frustrating teams to deal with this season but for DFS purposes, the feast or famine nature should help you take down GPPs when they do go off.
Our third GPP stack of the evening will be the Boston Red Sox, who take on Ronel Blanco and the Houston Astros. A common theme of the evening so far is that pitchers have horrible splits with their fastballs. This is another case of that because Blanco’s fastball gets hit hard by both sides of the plate. Jarren Duran (.235/.361), Rafael Devers (.407/.430), Tyler O’Neill (.219 xISO), Masataka Yoshida (.401xwOBA), and Ceddane Rafaela (.259 xISO) have all seen that pitch well this season. Wilyer Abreu also has a .194 xISO vs. the fastball but he’s hitting RHP to the tune of a .242/.339 line, which looks better, especially considering the Astros used two lefties out of the pen yesterday. Casas has a .180 xISO vs. RHP in his limited sample size and David Hamilton is also viable because of his stolen base upside in this spot.
Our next stack gives us slight value with the Tampa Bay Rays who take on Joey Estes and the Oakland A’s. The theme continues as Estes’ worst pitch is the fastball because it gets hit hard by both sides of the plate. Brandon Lowe (.301/.394), Jose Caballero (.264/.373), Josh Lowe (.198/.365), Junior Caminero (.226/.420), and Jose Siri (.281/.346) all have hit that pitch well this season. Austin Jackson, Taylor Walls, and Dylan Carlson are viable as they project to be solid pt/$ plays to round out your stack here.
Finally, our last stack to discuss is the New York Yankees, who the projections seem to like. We don’t have much to work with in such an elite limited sample size by Matthew Boyd, but if we look back to 2023, his fastball to RHH was by far his worst pitch. That would mean Gleyber Torres (.180 xISO), Aaron Judge (.383/.493), Giancarlo Stanton (.293/.334), and Jose Trevino (.211 xISO) would be the hitters to target for a Yankees stack. Boyd also struggled with the sinker to LHH, bringing Juan Soto (.228/.438) and Alex Verdugo (.326 xwOBA) into play. Oswaldo Peraza is also a nice value that has hit LHP to the tune of a .680/.497 clip in his limited sample size. Best of luck this evening!