Top Pitchers: Snell (#1 optimal), Verlander (#2 optimal), Kikuchi (#1 GPP), Rodriguez (#2 GPP), Harris (#3 GPP)
Top Stacks: ATL (#1 optimal), LAD (#2 optimal), PIT (#3 optimal), SEA (#1 GPP), CIN (#2 GPP), TEX (#3 GPP)
Bad Chalk: Giolito, Rodon
Tonight’s main slate promises to be a wild one as there are a TON of absolute gas cans on the mound. The expensive arms also have some major question marks for the most part. Because of this, we will have a few more stacks in the header than normal as we want to be sure we break it all down for you! One last thing to note is that we think this is an ELITE slate for GPPs! The influx of stacking options will lead to some great spots flying under the radar and we think some of the highest owned arms are set to get pounded.
As mentioned, we are going to kick things off with two arms that we think have high potential to implode tonight. However, they are projected to be two of the three highest owned arms on the entire slate. The first of these pitchers is Lucas Giolito. Lucas has been extremely mediocre since the Angels traded for him (and frankly the whole season). However, that is not stopping him from being projected as the highest owned arm on the entire slate. His primary issue here is that his fastball has played more like a meatball to hitters on both sides of the plate, but especially righties. Over the last thirty days, Giolito has allowed a .192 xISO/.343 xwOBA to lefties and a .439/.481 line to righties off his heater. The Reds are projected to start five righties against him here. We love stacking them up in GPPs as a result. Our favorites to target would include Matt McLain (.245/.363), Spencer Steer (.345 xwOBA), Tyler Stephenson (.199/.371), Elly De La Cruz (.277 xISO), Joey Votto (.332/.365), and Will Benson (.232/.359). The reality here is that Giolito has really not flashed much upside this year to make us concerned about fading him in this spot. He could rack up strikeouts, but it’s rare that he wouldn’t allow damage in this spot. Even if he does have a good start, you certainly could find another arm that scores in the mid-20 point range on DK. He has loads of downside here and is not somebody that we would target much at all tonight, save for some exposure in cash lineups.
The second of the arms to avoid is Carlos Rodon. Rodon has been somebody we have been picking on for a while, since he came back from the IL the first time. After hitting the IL for a second time due to a hamstring injury, he will be back once again tonight. The reality is that he has been horrendous this year. Lefties have a .386 xISO/.449 xwOBA off his heater and righties have a .248/.398 line themselves. He also is striking out just 19% of righties overall. Why does this matter? He is set to face eight righties against the Nats this evening. The Nats already are a very low strikeout team to begin with, but the splits here will absolutely neuter Rodon’s upside (if he even has any to begin with). The Nats don’t have the greatest advanced stats here so we don’t necessarily love stacking them up. This is simply a situation where there is a clear lack of upside for Rodon. He has been horrible and should not be able to post a high K performance in this spot.
So where does that leave us for arms? Our first optimal arm on the slate is very clearly Blake Snell. Snell has a strong matchup with the Miami Marlins tonight that he should be able to work through quite cleanly. The issue for Snell as always is his walks, so he will need to keep them in check. The Marlins are projected to start eight righties against him, which isn’t ideal, but he still has a very respectable 27% K rate against righties. He has given up some damage to righties against his fastball with a .384 xwOBA. The Marlins have some righties that crush lefty heaters in Soler, Bell, Burger, and Fortes. That being said, the reality here is the pitching on this slate is absurdly sketchy. Snell is one of the safest arms you will find, but he does come with some degree of risk. The best part about Snell is that he is exceptional at mitigating damage as he has not given up more than two runs in a start since May 19th. We like him in all formats as a result.
Our second optimal arm is Justin Verlander. Verlander will be going up against the Boston Red Sox who seem to be quite good at choking away good opportunities at the dish of late. They have busted when they were chalky and busted when they were in great GPP spots. Tonight is neither of those scenarios. Verlander looks to be one of the safest arms on the entire slate. He has been exceptional against lefties with a .133 xISO/.288 xwOBA. His K rate is also seven points higher (23% vs. 16% to righties) over the last thirty days and he is set to see five lefties tonight. Righties have not fared much better with a .144/.296 line themselves on the season. The only downside here is that his K upside does seem to be somewhat limited as his K rates are not very high to begin with. However, he should more than make up for that by limiting the damage. We would probably lean more towards deploying him in optimal formats, but as a pivot off Giolito in the same price range, he is absolutely playable in GPPs as well.
Moving over to GPPs, our favorite arm tonight is Yusei Kikuchi. Yusei has been exceptional over the last month or so with 23+ DK points in four of his last five starts. Righties have a .074 xISO/.275 xwOBA against him over the last thirty days. That is very important because Baltimore is projected to start eight righties tonight. He is coming off a start at the beginning of August against this same Baltimore team where he allowed one run on six hits over six innings of work. He is projected for very little ownership tonight with most people choosing to find the extra money to pay up for Giolito or Verlander. We love him in GPPs as a result.
Our next top GPP arm on the slate can be found on the opposite side of the diamond. Grayson Rodriguez had his season get off to a very rough start. However, since being recalled from AAA a little over a month ago, he has looked like a completely different pitcher. The Blue Jays are a very righty-heavy team offensively and he is projected to see six of them tonight. That is great news as he has held righties to a .093 xISO/.265 xwOBA over the last thirty days with a K rate pushing 23%. In his last start against the Jays at the beginning of this month, he had a very strong start where he allowed three runs on just two hits over 5.2 innings of work. Priced like a complete scrub on this slate and projecting for relatively little ownership, he makes a world of sense in your GPP lineups to help you fit in some big bats.
The last GPP arm to consider here is another value option. Hogan Harris has been recalled from AAA for the A’s and will be starting tonight against the Royals. There definitely is risk in deploying him here but he does grade out as one of the better point per dollar options on the slate. We have seen multiple 19-20 point DK starts from him over the course of the season and he does hold around 19% K rates to hitters on both sides of the plate. The Royals are far from being a good team so he does have some semblance of upside here given his price. With that being said, we would definitely prefer Grayson if choosing between the two. But you could pair them together and really have money for bats in tournaments tonight if you were inclined.
As mentioned at the top of our breakdown today, there are tons of good stacks to consider tonight. While normally we have our top four or five broken down for you, tonight we have a sixth included simply due to the nature of the slate! On this slate there are three clear optimal stacks for you to consider. The first of these is the Atlanta Braves. We have become used to them flying under the radar on so many slates but tonight is quite the opposite. They are projected to draw heavy ownership in this spot against one of the worst pitchers in the majors right now, Tylor Megill. There really is nothing positive to say about Megill here. Lefties have a .240 xISO/.374 xwOBA off his heater and a .521/.587 line off his change. Righties have a .215/.422 line off his heater. Two starts ago, he faced this same Braves team and allowed six runs on nine hits over 5.1 innings of work (no homers though!). They have tons of great options here including Ronald Acuna (.291/.450), Austin Riley (.277/.356), Matt Olson (.324/.458), Marcell Ozuna (.367/.433), Eddie Rosario (.203/.341), Sean Murphy (.382/.449), and Orlando Arcia (.219/.365). One bat you may not see mentioned is Michael Harris. He does not hit the fastball well (.096 xISO) and is projected to be very chalky. Because of that, looking elsewhere in GPPs is advised. There are ways to make this stack more GPP oriented if you are inclined. Acuna, Riley, Olson, Harris, and Murphy are projected to carry the most ownership here. By mixing in bats like Ozuna, Rosario, and Arcia, you can get lower ownership exposure to the Braves in this spot and make your stack more unique. There is no real downside to the Braves here other than the projected ownership. They should be locked into your optimal lineups and scattered in your GPPs as well.
The second optimal stack is easily the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers get to face off with the shell of Thor, Noah Syndergaard. Noah is a real dumpster fire at this point in his career, hence why the Dodgers didn’t want him anymore. He gets smashed by hitters on both sides of the plate and allows oodles of steals (30 last year and already 31 this year). On the season, lefties have a .244 xISO/.401 xwOBA against him and righties sit at .195/.351. You pretty much can play nearly this entire lineup tonight. Our favorites include Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Jason Heyward, and James Outman. Betts, Freeman, and Muncy are projected to be the highest owned options here while Heyward and Outman are more GPP in nature. Like the Braves, there are no real negatives in this spot outside of ownership. They look exceptional.
The final optimal stack for us tonight is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh’s offense is nothing to write home about. But the key tonight is that they get to face off with Adam Wainwright. Don’t let his somewhat competent last start against the Mets fool you. He still managed to score just 7.3 fantasy points. Wainwright has no business still pitching in the bigs in 2023. His sinker has been destroyed by lefties (.314/.493) and righties (.312/.435). Our top bats to stack up against him include Brian Reynolds (.266/.393), Andrew McCutchen (.409 xwOBA), Jack Suwinski (.402/.452), and Alfonso Rivas (.237/.426). Waino’s curve has also been crushed which brings Endy Rodriguez into play as well (.308/.344). One bat not mentioned here that is projected among the top owned options on the slate is Ji Hwan Bae. He grades out as one of the better point per dollar options on the slate in the projections but has horrid X stats this season. In optimal lineups, you should probably include him in your stack. But in GPPs, you are totally fine excluding him. While the Pirates bats are expected to draw solid ownership here, it is an order of magnitude less than the Braves and Dodgers options. You can feel comfortable slotting them into your lineups in all formats tonight.
Our top GPP option for tonight’s slate is a familiar friend to all of us, the Seattle Mariners. Seattle just decimated Touki Toussaint yesterday, which led to the Sox pen having to cover the final five innings. Tonight, they go up against Mike Clevinger. Clev has been solid against righties this season but has been hammered by lefties who hold a .260 xISO/.373 xwOBA off his heater. He throws the fastball nearly half the time to hitters on both sides of the plate so you can see why this poses a problem here. Seattle is projected to start six lefties tonight against Clevinger. Our favorites from the bunch include J.P. Crawford (.175/.412), Cal Raleigh (.222 xISO), Dom Canzone (.365/.438), and Mike Ford (.313/.371). The issue for Clevinger here is that the righties he will face on Seattle universally crush the heater, which makes this an even tougher road to navigate. You absolutely can mix in the scalding hot Julio Rodriguez (.195/.337), Eugenio Suarez (.374/.421), or Teoscar Hernandez (.379/.421) if you want. We love the upside Seattle provides here and they continue to be ignored by the industry with only Julio projected for greater than 9% ownership tonight.
We already touched on the Reds well above so we will move right along to our final GPP stack, the Texas Rangers. Texas is facing off with Zac Gallen tonight. For those of you that did not bear witness to his last start, the Padres were scalding the ball all over the yard right at fielders the entire game. His X stats bear this out as lefties have a .467 xISO/.532 xwOBA and righties have a .301/.388 line off his heater over the last thirty days. Texas has a ton of bats that line up quite well here. Our favorites would include Corey Seager (.406/.466), Marcus Semien (.222/.385), Mitch Garver (.439/.501), Adolis Garcia (.292 xISO), and Leody Taveras (.203/.396). With them busting in a great spot last night, recency bias also may come into play here as people are tilted with them. They are a strong GPP option to consider.
Conclusion: The pitching on this slate is super dodgy. Two arms that are projected for very high ownership that we do not like at all are Lucas Giolito and Carlos Rodon. Our optimal arms are Blake Snell and Justin Verlander. In GPPs, we love pivoting to Yusei Kikuchi and Grayson Rodriguez. Hogan Harris is another value option against the Royals. The Braves, Dodgers, and Pirates are all projected for very high ownership tonight as the optimal hitting stacks. There is nothing wrong with any of them outside of their projected ownership. Our top GPP stacks are the Mariners, Reds, and Rangers. Best of luck this evening!