Top Pitchers: Strider (optimal – weather risk), Peralta (optimal), Cole (#1 GPP), Dunning (#2 GPP), GPP Grab Bag (Webb, Williams, Sandoval, Waldichuk)
Top Stacks: BOS (optimal cash), ATL (GPP #1), KAN lefty mini-stack (GPP #2), NYY (#3)
Tonight’s slate is one of the most interesting in quite some time as there are oodles of good pitchers to choose from which obviously has the inverse effect on the hitting options. We will do our best to break it all down for you in order to help you choose the right arm.
Starting at the very top, there are two clear-cut optimal arms on this slate that will carry most of the ownership. The first is Spencer Strider, who is taking on the hapless Pittsburgh Pirates offense. They were just shredded by Brandon Woodruff last night in his first start back in an eternity, and now they have to go up against one of the best arms in baseball this evening. Strider is elite all the way around as he has a .169 xISO/.279 xwOBA and a 40% K rate to lefties combined with a .091/.236 line and a 44% K rate to righties. You will have to pay a pretty penny to play him as his price is nearly a staggering $13k on DK and in the mid-$11k range on FD. There is really no compelling reason to avoid him in this matchup other than the price/ownership combo. With a bunch of solid cheaper pitching options on this slate, you easily could make the pivot to be able to pay up for better bats in GPP formats. The one other thing to note here is there is some risk for a delay in this game, which also could hurt Strider if he were to get pulled as a result.
The second optimal arm is Freddy Peralta, who gets to take on another horrendous offense in the Colorado Rockies. Peralta is priced at a solid discount off of Strider on both sites, but particularly so on DK where he is over $3k cheaper. Because of this, he is projected to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate. He is projected to see a majority righty lineup (five of them) which plays heavily into his favor given his .160 xISO/.253 xwOBA and 43% K rate against them over the last month. He has flashed upside that rivals Strider’s from a fantasy perspective over this span. When combined with his price point, the reason for his projected ownership becomes quite apparent. We love him tonight – but like Strider, with the sheer number of great options, you can look elsewhere for lower ownership on pitchers in great spots.
Gerrit Cole is seeing his ownership fall far under where it should be due to the chalky arms in Strider and Peralta. Cole is facing off with the Chicago White Sox, who are exceptionally right-handed heavy. They are projected to start four lefties tonight in order to avoid that issue – but the lefties they will start are Moncada, Benintendi, Grandal, and Colas. That is not exactly murderers’ row to say the least. Cole has been exceptional of late with a .089 xISO/.250 xwOBA and a 31% K rate against righties over the last thirty days. He has a ton of upside in this spot and is a superb GPP pivot off Strider or Peralta here.
Dane Dunning stands out as the top GPP value option on this slate as he prepares to take on the Oakland Athletics. He is coming off an insane outing against the White Sox where he put up nearly 40 fantasy points as he went 7.2 IP with 11 Ks and just 1 ER allowed. He has been exceptional against righties in particular with a .086 xISO/.249 xwOBA and a 26% K rate against them over the last thirty days. The A’s are projected to start six righties tonight against him. We love his upside in GPP formats as he grades out as one of the best point per dollar options on the slate.
The last option here is to dive into what we are calling the Grab Bag tonight. There are so many pitching options tonight in good spots that we can’t possibly break them all down. Some other superb options that are coming in at low ownership that can be used in GPPs include: Logan Webb, Gavin Williams, Patrick Sandoval, and Ken Waldichuk. Please ask us about any of these guys in the Discord if you are curious to learn more about them!
Flipping the script over to the offenses, the clear optimal offense on the slate is the Boston Red Sox. Boston is facing off with Cole Ragans and the Royals. Ragans hasn’t been great this season, but he actually has halfway decent numbers overall. Lefties have hit his cutter hard with a .345 xISO/.399 xwOBA but he has dominated righties with a .097 xISO/.260 xwOBA. What is interesting is that the righties are projecting the chalkiest in this spot with bats like Refsnyder, Duvall, Turner, and Urias all in the top 20 projected ownerships. The only real elite bat here is Devers who has a .565 xISO/.523 xwOBA against righty cutters. We like him as a one-off, but you can also fade Boston to be unique.
The Atlanta Braves are our top GPP stack today. We love to target their upside on slates where they get overlooked, and this is one of those times. With the sheer volume of expensive, high upside arms tonight, nobody is looking to the Braves in a very juicy matchup with Osvaldo Bido and the Pirates. Bido has had great x stats against righties this season but has seen lefties crush his fastball with a .412 xwOBA. That introduces phenomenal options at low ownership including Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Harris. Acuna is the only bat that is projected to draw some solid ownership and he comes at Bido from the right side. Bido most likely won’t be long for this game as the Pirates have limited him to around 60 pitches in each of his last three starts, which means we will see a ton of their bullpen as well. The Braves are always capable of popping off, so we love using them in GPPs when the field forgets about them.
The real skeleton key to this slate is targeting some of the cheap Kansas City Royals lefties in their matchup with Brayan Bello. Bello has seen lefties maul his fastball (.323/.352) and sinker (.386/.413). MJ Melendez and Michael Massey are two of our top plays in all formats on this slate. Melendez has a .494 xISO/.536 xwOBA against the sinker with a .197 xISO against the heater while Massey is at .332/.409 and .260/.364 respectively. You also can add in Kyle Isbel if you like as he has respectable numbers against the heater with a .173/.344 line himself.
The final option to consider here is the New York Yankees. New York will be taking on Dylan Cease tonight. Cease has seen his fastball get hit well by righties of late as they hold a .401 xwOBA against the pitch over the last thirty days. Aaron Judge (.631/.591) is expected to be chalky tonight and he can be used as a one off here quite easily. However, the Yanks have a ton of righties that can hit the fastball well including Torres (.252/.367), Stanton (.289/.375), LeMahieu (.218/.377), and Volpe (.221/.349). They make for a nice tidy five man stack here that will not be super highly-owned. Bauers (.315/.376) and McKinney (.554/.544) also crush righty heaters and can be used as well. Cease just got plastered by the Rangers in his last start and the Guardians the time before that, which leaves us with a ton of upside for the Yankees.
Conclusion: Pitching is insane tonight as there are a ton of great options. Strider and Peralta are projected to be the optimal arms and carry a ton of the ownership on the mound. Strider has a bit of weather risk, which makes it easier to justify passing on him for cheaper arms. Gerrit Cole is the top GPP pivot off these two, while Dane Dunning provides a ton of value as a cheaper option. You also can dip into the grab bag of options and play guys like Webb, Williams, Sandoval, or Waldichuk. On the hitting side, Boston is the optimal stack tonight but their righties do not look good against Ragans. We would prefer one-offing Devers. Atlanta is an elite GPP option tonight. The KC Royals lefties make for a very solid value mini-stack. And lastly, the New York Yankees are a very sneaky spot against a struggling Dylan Cease. Good luck tonight!