Pitchers: Bassit (#1 Optimal), Festa (#2 Optimal), Detmers (#1 GPP), Bello (#2 GPP),
Hitters: LAD (#1 Optimal), CLE (#2 Optimal), NYY (#1 GPP), TOR (#2 GPP), KCR (#3 GPP), CHC (#4 GPP)
Bad Chalk: Carlos Rodon, Walker Buehler, MIN
Weather: CHC @ LAD hot and winds blowing out. Bump to bats
Note: Per the poll we ran today in Discord, on days with football slates, we’ll do our best to condense the breakdowns as much as possible to reduce the amount of total words you have to read.
We have a small 6 game slate tonight and a lot of times when this happens we get high ownership on rather middle of the road plays that make for easy fades. Tonight Chris Bassit and Carlos Rodon are your optimal arms, but they are both in tough matchups. We would prefer Bassit over Rodon and have included Rodon in bad chalk. Getting double leverage off of Rodon looks like a sharp play and we love targeting a KC stack, especially their righties as Rodon has struggled to get right handers out. Think Witt Jr, Perez, Renfroe, Pham, Blanco. Bassit is a fine play, but will be owned and there is certainly risk involved here, we’d probably look elsewhere in GPPs and don’t mind a mini Mets stack or one offing studs like Lindor or Alonso.
Walker Buehler also makes our bad chalk section, as he is looking to be somewhat owned on DK. Buehler has not been very sharp this season and what’s worse is he has routinely been lifted early in games and rarely goes past 90 pitches, even if he is throwing well, which really limits his upside. Best to just avoid altogether. CHC comes into play a little bit there, but the main reason for the fade is because we do not think Buehler has the upside if he is not going to be allowed to go deep in games.
After Rodon and Bassit, ownership thins out a bit and we love the upside some of the lower owned guys have like David Festa and Reid Detmers. Both have great strikeout stuff and are in decent enough matchups. We really like Detmers, because the Minnesota bats are looking like a popular option. Detmers is coming off a very solid outing where he racked the Ks up against a much better Dodgers lineup and we don’t see why he can’t do that again tonight against a lesser opponent. The final arm we would consider is Brayan Bello. It is a tough matchup for Bello, but he has really pitched well over the last month and the last 30 day sample size really shows some promising X stats. On a small slate like this he is worth a go in GPPs at low ownership.
Shifting to the bats, the Dodgers are optimal and have some of the highest projected point totals and also grade out well from a point/$ standpoint. Cleveland is your 2nd optimal choice and should be a little less chalky when compared to the Dodgers. After that, the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Royals are our favorite GPP stacking options that have a lot of upside at lesser ownership. Make sure to check out the projections when making decisions on who you want to stack from these games. We will make sure to be in discord with you right up until lock to answer any specific questions about stacks, pitching, or anything else matchup related.