You currently can find this bet for -105 odds on DraftKings. We like it to -130.
Jared Jones will be on the mound for Pittsburgh. The issue for him is that his fastball has been getting tagged with lefties holding a .261 xISO against it and righties holding a .206/.355 mark. The Twins are loaded with offensive weapons that crush the fastball including Santana (.190/.373), Larnach (.429/.524), Lewis (.457/.489 in 2023, only 1 PA this year), Correa (.263/.456), Kepler (.372/.462), Miranda (.232/.414), Kiriloff (.292/.368), Jeffers (.240/.368), and Castro (.225/.387). Nearly every single batter that will stroll to the plate slaughters the pitch and they could not line up any better from a pitch value perspective.
On the other side, Bailey Ober will be on the mound for Minnesota. Ober has also had issues with his fastball and has posted single-digit fantasy point starts in three of his last four outings. Lefties have a .354 xwOBA and righties have a .400/.500 line against his heater. For this reason, we would start with the righties thanks to the power upside. Options like McCutchen (.369/.444), Joe (.180/.383), and Gonzales (.525/.450) line up quite well. From the left side, Reynolds (.343/.442), Cruz (.423/.491), and Tellez (.194/.314) are in strong spots. Lock in the over in this game as a result!