Cash: Nurmagomedov, Magomedov, Murzakhanov, Alvarez, Chiesa
GPP: Figueiredo, Fernandes, Dern, Kutaladze
Value: Bedoya, Hughes, Tiuliulin, Vera, Sandhagen, Ferguson (Dart throw)
After a tough card, we move on to an early start with the next card being in Abu Dhabi! Time to bounce back as our next event is headlined by Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov. Let’s not waste any time and get into this card!
Our first matchup is going to be Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov and both men will be viable. They are both projected for significant ownership as expected. We will be siding with the Nurmagomedov side because he has shown over the course of his career to have the tools to compete for a title. He has the best striking in his family and also pairs it with excellent wrestling. The few things Sandhagen doesn’t do well is deal with pressure and stuff takedowns. That is going to be the key difference here because Umar embodies those traits, so we like our chances taking Nurmagomedov. While you can use Sandhagen for value, beware of the time he can possibly be controlled on the mat. It’s hard to score points on your back, especially on FanDuel where only significant strikes are counted.
Our next matchup is Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk. We are siding with Shara because Michal has a lot of red flags with him and they do not bode well. To begin with, Michal’s win condition is to get a knockout, but Shara has never been knocked out in his career. Second of all, once the fight gets past the first round, Michal’s gas tank will likely evaporate and Shara will only continue to look better, especially since he has the better striking in this matchup. With how bad of a gas tank Michal has, I anticipate a late round finish for Shara Magomedov as he looks to take advantage of his opponent’s worst trait.
Our next fight is Deiveson Figueiredo and Marlon Vera. This could potentially be a fight to avoid because Marlon Vera is already a very slow starter as it is, not finding his groove until late 2nd round and at times the third. Figueiredo on the other hand tends to be gun shy and will take his time asserting his game plan whether it’s striking or wrestling. If this was five rounds, I would confidently tout Vera as a fantastic value play, but it’s not. Therefore, the lean here is with Figueiredo who should land enough volume in rounds 1 and 2 to take home what could be a boring decision. Overall it would probably be wise to pass on this fight for DFS.
Our next fight is Michael Chiesa as one of the biggest favorites on the card vs. the severely slumping Tony Ferguson. So our first question, does Tony Ferguson have a chance? Sure he does and at the bare minimum price, he’s worth a shot as Michael Chiesa is his worst opponent during this 7 loss stretch. It truly is an uphill battle though and Ferguson is simply not the same fighter that he was when he got his last win. His cardio, durability, and reflexes all seem to be failing him and he’s not getting any better. So our next question, is Michael Chiesa worth paying up for? Well according to our projections, he projects as the 2nd highest scoring fighter. I do see a path to fade him though as he can always simply get a lousy decision that will make you regret paying top dollar for him. Chiesa’s last finish was in 2018, so I don’t necessarily expect a monster score here. He’s simply priced up because he’s facing an opponent on a 7 fight loss streak, which is unheard of.
Our next matchup is Mackenzie Dern vs. Lupita Godinez and we lean Dern here as the value play. We know the blueprint with Dern already, which is to target opponents that have power in their strikes. Lupita does not fit that mold as she doesn’t carry any fearful power nor is her striking anything elite. This is in fact a great spot to target Dern because she should be able to utilize her wrestling. Without having to worry about the punches coming back, she can use her horrible striking to close the distance and get this fight to the ground and from there she should do her best work. When Dern gets to fight in her world with wrestling, she certainly knows how to display her skillset in the best fashion to get the decision, and that is why we like her in this spot vs. Godinez.
Our next fight is Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener and we love the Alvarez side in this spot. A big factor here is the size and strength difference as Alvarez is the significantly bigger fighter. That itself plays a role in this pick because with such an advantage, it allows for Alvarez to fight the fight he wants knowing he’s the stronger man who would get the better of any exchanges. Here’s the funny part, Alvarez is fantastic on the ground, he’s just not looking to take you there. So with that being said, we have the better and bigger striker here with Alvarez if this stays on the feet, and if Brener tries to wrestle then that’ll also be a mistake against a fighter with excellent grappling. We think Alvarez is an elite midrange play.
Our next matchup is Azamat Murzakanov vs. Alonzo Menifield where the pick will be Murzakanov. This is a very simple breakdown because Murzakanov has the better durability, power, and cardio. This matchup is an uphill climb for Menifield because he’s facing an opponent that’s undefeated for a reason. Murzakanov packs fight ending power with one punch and his fight IQ is extraordinary. He’ll be well aware of the danger Menefield presents in the first 2-3 minutes before picking his spots to find a finish. There is absolutely no room for error for Menifield and if this fight gets past the first round the KO is certainly in play for Murzakanov.
Our next matchup is Kaue Fernandes vs. Muhammad Yahya where we will be siding with the heavy favorite in Fernandes. There’s a slight worry with the gas tank of Fernandes which is why I feel the odds should be lower, but Vegas has it the way it is because Yahya is that bad of a fighter. Yahya supposedly is known for his wrestling, but you wouldn’t know because of how badly he utilizes his “best skillset”. With the wrestling most likely being a non factor, Fernandes will look to keep this fight on the feet while he utilizes his far superior striking. Another bonus is that without the worry of a true wrestling threat, Fernandes won’t need to worry about his cardio getting drained as well. This is a fine spot to use Fernandes and is another candidate to get a late round finish.
The next fighter we will be siding with is Guram Kutateladze vs. Jordan Vucenic who is taking this fight on short notice. Normally this would be a spot to side with the underdog, but Vucenic not having a full camp will certainly hurt his cardio. Guram is a tremendous first round fighter because he tries to get you out of there in the first round and puts on a pace that isn’t going to be sustainable. Fortunately for him, as the fight goes on it won’t be an advantage for his opponent because this is a short notice fight for Vucenic who will struggle to keep up the pace rather than take over. This is strictly a GPP play though because Vucenic is very durable, so it may be a tall task for Guram to put him away in any round. It certainly will be an easier task for Guram to win the fight though.
These next three fighters in our breakdown are value fighters we like in Sam Hughes and Rolando Bedoya, and Dennis Tuiliulin. While the fight between Hughes and Dudakova doesn’t project to score highly, we could certainly use the value with Hughes who will have the wrestling advantage if she chooses to use it. We anticipate her using it considering Dudakova does not handle wrestling well, but even if she doesn’t this fight will still be close enough on the feet for us to take a chance with Hughes. With Rolando Bedoya against Jai Herbert, we love Bedoya because of his incredible durability and volume. Despite two losses, Bedoya had 112 & 149 SS in those two fights. It should be a breath of fresh air taking on a low volume fighter in Herbert who gets way too patient trying to find a knockout blow. That won’t bode well for Herbert since Bedoya is already durable, and by the time Herbert realizes that he will be doubled, perhaps even tripled up in the SS department, it will cost him this fight. Hughes and Bedoya round out some solid values on this slate. Sedriques Dumas does not have power in his strikes, his striking and wrestling are far below average to be considered a favorite in this matchup. To top it off, he doesn’t have any volume to speak of. With Dennis, he’s the better striker and has far more power in his shots than Dumas does. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that Dennis finds a finish considering we have seen Dumas finished before. These three fighters make for solid options to choose from in terms of value.